Myths by Raul

There are numerous people in the Philadelphia area who were overjoyed at the news of the Phillies signing Raul Ibanez, meaning the door has shut on the Pat Burrell era. I have issues with the signing, particularly the general idea of signing a 37 year old to a three year contract. That said, I think he will be an adequate replacement for Burrell in 2009.

That said, I strongly disagree with a lot of the hyperbole that has been thrown out by those who support the Ibanez deal. Such as......

Myth #1 - Raul Ibanez is a better hitter against left-handed pitching than Pat Burrell is.

In 2008, Ibanez had a career year hitting against left handers, putting up an OPS of .866. But every other year prior to '08, Ibanez had never even cracked .800 OPS against lefties. For his career, Ibanez is .268/.322/.411 against lefties. I would not be as concerned about these numbers if every lefthander over the age of 14 had not already figured out how to pitch to Ryan Howard.

Myth #2 - Raul Ibanez is a better hitter than Pat Burrell

If the year was 1983 and all we had were the back of baseball cards to argue with, then I would agree that with this Myth. But it isn't 1983, and only dopes use batting average and RBI to measure a hitter's production. In the last three years, Burrell has had an OPS+ of 122, 127, and 125. Ibanez has had OPS+ of 125, 121, 124. That is about as close as you can get in comparing two players over a three season span.

Myth #3 - Raul Ibanez is more consistent than Pat Burrell

I guess this comes down to your definition of consistency. People always would dwell on Burrell's hot and cold streaks, but just ignore the months where he put up numbers similar to his career stats. In 2008, both Burrell and Ibanez had two months with OPS under .800 and one month over 1.100. Same in 2007. Both players typically put up the same numbers on an annual basis. That is my definition of consistency.

Myth #4 - Raul Ibanez is less likely to decline than Pat Burrell

I am not a doctor and I haven't seen their medical records. But I have a difficult time believing that a 37 year old baseball player playing everyday does not present an injury risk, regardless of what great shape he is in. Getting old sucks.

Myth #5 - Losing a first round draft pick is not a big deal

This is an insane idea. And not only will the Phillies forfeit their first round pick by signing Ibanez, they also will not receive any compensation picks for Burrell because they did not offer him arbitration. Unless the Phillies plan on using that money to spend over slot for their additional picks, losing a first round draft pick is never a good idea.

I'm tired of typing. Type to listen to Barney Frank mumble and rumble. Welcome back us.

I'm already done enjoying it

Our self imposed ban during the playoffs is over. Let's get back to making fun of stuff.

Bill Conlin is a sap

TWENTY-EIGHT years vanished in the heartbeat it took for Brad Lidge to deliver one final, unhittable slider to Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz. Then, 1980 was suddenly 2008 and it was Lidge, not Tug McGraw, leaping joyously into the gelid South Philly air, and waiting for an avalanche of whooping teammates to engulf him. Brad sank to his knees in a spread-eagle prayer, beckoning toward Ruiz, who leaped into his arms.

I realize that times are tough for newspapers, but seriously Bill, this is no way to advertise your services to romance novel publishers. Send them a manuscript and they will get back to you. That is how it has always been done.

In what could be his final at-bat of the Phillies career he resuscitated with solid 2007-8 seasons, Pat Burrell began the eighth with a double to deep center that just missed leaving the Bank.

Pat Burrell's splits:
'05: .281/.389/.504
'06: .258/.388/.502
'07: .255/.400/.502
'08: .250/.367/.507

THESE ARE PRACTICALLY THE SAME. I don't understand this notion that Burrell became a different hitter the last two years.

History will record that Pedro Feliz, brilliant on defense all year but an offensive disappointment, drove in the winning run with a single to center off soft-tossing submariner Chad Bradford.

What was Conlin expecting of Pedro Feliz? That at age 33 he would suddenly turn into a different hitter, one that was patient at the plate? He did exactly as he was expected to. I expected something along the lines of .250/.300/.420 and he ended up a little short in the SLG department. Players don't suddenly get better at age 33, at least not in the post steroids era.

Lidge did not have his best stuff.

then

His drop-dead slider has had nastier bite. His fastball has had more late life.

Maybe Conlin was delirious when he sent his column in, which explains the obvious contradiction. And we know that the Inquirer and Daily News does not spend money on a sports editor.

Oh and congratulations to the Phillies. But I don't congratulate fans because you didn't do anything. Now don't burn the city down. Just Willie Green's house.

Oh Well

Don't Blame Us, We'll Blame You

2008 NFL Predicitons

Because it'd be silly to share my 2018 NFL predictions, although I do have them ready (hint: the Raiders will be better), here they are for 2008.

On a sadder note, I can't access this damn blog from work any longer thanks to a new web blocking program which would make the North Korean government jealous, so I am trying to post at night. I haven't been around at night though, which makes that very difficult. Blargh, who cares, right? On to the picks-

NFC East-
Cowboys
Eagles
Giants
Redskins

NFC North-
Vikings
Bears
Packers
Lions

NFC South-
Panthers
Saints
Bucs
Falcons

NFC West-
Seahawks
Who gives a shit?

Wild Cards- Eagles and Saints

AFC East-
Pats
Bills
Jets
Fins

AFC North-
Browns
Steelers
Bengals
Ravens

AFC South-
Jags
Colts
Texans
Titans

AFC West-
Chargers
Chiefs
Broncos
Raiders

Wild Cards- Colts and Bills

NFC Champs- Vikings
AFC Champs- Chargers

SB Champs- Chargers, thus ending the universe (see the Norv Turner Theory of Heat Death)

No Country for a Crappy Team Like Washington

Wow, how about that Brett Myers? With the exception of his first game back from his banishment to the minors, he has been outstanding. He now has a better ERA than Kyle Kendrick, which means everyone should be turning on Kyle very shortly. In other pitching pariah news, Adam Eaton gave up 6 runs in 6 IP last night in Reading because he sucks.

Speaking of turning on people, this whole Jimmy Rollins thing is ridiculous. A year ago, he was the most popular athlete in the city after his boasting about the Phils being the team to beat and his MVP-like performance. This year, he may as well be a DHS employee running a dog fighting ring out of a crack house. Part of that is his performance, which has been subpar. And his comment about Philly fans being front runners is still pissing people off even though it is TRUE. Just the fact that there was and still is such an uproar over his comments only serves to help prove what a bunch of over-emotional whiners and doomsayers Philly fans can be. And yes, I include myself in that.

You want it, you got it

Charlie Manuel on the Phillies offensive problems-

"I'm puzzled by it," he said. "I'm open for suggestions. I'll listen to what anybody's got to say. Fans. Cab drivers. President Bush. Anybody."

Well, Charles, here are a few suggestions for an offense that has gone .202/.303/.351 for the month of August-

1. Stop batting Jimmy Rollins leadoff.

In his last 8 games, Jimmy "Boo Berry" Rollins has an overall OBP of .167. His OBP for the season leading off the game or an inning is .243. It's hard to set the table well when the silverware is tarnished and the dinner plates are moldy and disgusting. The solution here is simple- try Shane Victorino. He has a career .347 OBP when leading off a game or inning, which is not great but is a huge improvement over Jimmy, who has never been great as a leadoff hitter; sadly, other than last season, he hasn't been great batting in any other slot either.

2. Ryan Howard should not be batting cleanup vs. lefties.

Even batting him 7th would be questionable this season. He has a career OPS vs. LHP of .744. This year, it's a robust .587. Lefties have learned that if they have any kind of decent breaking ball, Howard is an easy out.

3. The Geoff Jenkins experiment has failed.

He was supposed to be a RHP hitting specialist, but the only thing he has specialized in this year is making outs. He has a .724 OPS vs. RHP this year, and has been atrocious since August 6th, although he's hardly alone in that. Jayson Werth hits both lefties and righties better than Jenkins at this point.

4. Try batting Burrell 2nd, or 3rd or 4th (especially vs. LHP,) more often.

Ryan Howard isn't protecting him anymore, and there's no one below him in the order to drive him in when he walks, which is often. Look, Burrell is not going to be a 140 RBI a year guy. But he is a guy with a great knack for getting on base. Use that to your advantage rather than watching the Jenkins/Feliz/Bruntlett/Coste/Ruiz/Dobbs casserole continually struggle to get him home.

5. Get on their asses.

Look, there is something seriously wrong here. No sane, enlightened person would have believed that this team would rank 5th in ERA and 4th in runs per game at August 19th, but here they are. You're the manager Charlie. Act like it.

Here are starting lineups Charlie should consider. They may seem a little wild, but hopefully they are better than President Bush's suggestions-

vs. RHP
1. Victorino
2. Burrell
3. Utley
4. Howard
5. Rollins
6. Werth/Jenkins
7. Feliz
8. Ruiz

vs. LHP
1. Victorino
2. Utley
3. Werth
4. Burrell
5. Rollins
6. Feliz
7. Howard
8. Ruiz/Coste

Theo Ratliff is back

Ah, a return to the glory days of early summer 2001. When men were men, no one thought Muslim terrorists would do something as crazy as crash hijacked planes into buildings, and the Sixers were playing for the NBA championship with a lineup of Allen Iverson plus 11 other guys, one of whom was Theo Ratliff.

Ratliff signed a 1-year deal with the Sixers yesterday in a move to add big man depth. With Jason Smith on the DL for an extended stay and Marreese Speights being a rookie, they needed someone to strengthen the middle. And as a bonus perhaps he can act as a mentor to young Marreese, teaching him the fine but possibly unteachable art of blocking a ton of shots.

The problem with the signing (and of course there is one) is that Ratliff is as fragile as a Russia/Georgia peace agreement. He's only played 28 games over the past 2 years. Amazingly, he's only played 705 games in his 13 year career, and never played more than 57 in any of his 3 seasons with the Sixers. If he goes down early in the year, or is just so rusty that he's ineffective, then the whole signing will be for naught. But the hope is that he can recapture some of the magic that helped make the 2000-2001 Sixers one of the most improbable championship contenders of my lifetime.

More Stuff about More Things

Jimmy Rollins Hates You

Or at least thinks that you are a frontrunner, whatever the sam heck that means. By saying this on The Best Damn Sports Show on TV That You'll Ever See and You're Lucky You Get To See It So Shut Up and Listen, he apparently enraged a majority of Phillies fans. Honestly, when you start taking yourself seriously as a "fan", it is time for you to step back and re-prioritize what is important in your life. Who gives a shit what Jimmy Rollins thinks about the fans? He has a right to his opinion just like I have a right to my opinion that Rollins had a career year in '07 and will most likely never put up those numbers again. If this comment really has you hot and bothered, put the phone down, turn your radio off, and pick up a book. Not a magazine, but a book. Open it up and read it. You will thank me later.

Andre Igoudala Is 8% Closer to Being a Billionaire

The Sixers have opened the bank this offseason, giving out almost $200 Million in contracts. Hopefully this professional basketball league thing takes off so they can afford to pay these guys. Is it a lot of scratch for Iguodala? Yes and the Sixers most likely overpaid, especially since they were bidding against themselves. But in the end, it most likely won't matter if they are paying him $60 million or $80 million for the next six years because they are going to be over the salary cap anyways with Brand, Dalembert, Williams, and TYoung. That is your Sixers core for the next five years and hopefully Speights as well. Hoo rah Ed Stefanski. Hoo rah indeed.

The Sixers Will Play One Final Game At the Spectrum

And if you get a ticket before I do, I will punch you in the foot. I must go to this game.

It's Not Always Sunny in Philadelphia

I turned on FOX last night at like 7:45 Lucky People Time, expecting to see exciting Eagles/Panthers action, but to my chagring fourth graders were answering trivia questiong. I guess Lightning is a Jeff Foxworth fan (and who can blame him). Once they started playing, I didn't really pay much attention because most of the good players were just doing their best not to get hurt. I do still hate Joe Buck, though.

Stuff about things

Regarding Kyle Kendrick BS- as usual, we were right and everyone else on this big blue marble we call earth was completely and utterly wrong.

Other Phillies garbage- Ryan Howard went 0-5 last night in the Phillies 8-6 loss. Everyone thought a month ago that Howard had returned to his normal form, but his numbers since then have been pretty nonformical- 24 games, .242/.308/.389, with just 4 HR and 2 doubles. And those awful errors. At least Utley seems to be putting himself back in MVP contention.

Eagles crap- good job by the Birds on making Brian Westbrook a happy camper (GET IT?) without mortgaging the team's future financial flexibility. Even though the deal looks a little long at first glance, its structure makes it easier to part with Westbrook should he prove to be like 80% of other NFL running backs and becomes ineffective as a runner by age 31.

Olympics hoohah- UPDATE- Beating Angola by 21 points is wholly unimpressive. The US men's team is now just 12 for 45 from 3-point range in 2 games. They needed better outside shooting and defense than 2004 and it looks like they didn't do a good job of getting it. China and Angola were their two easiest games.

India won its first ever gold medal yesterday in Men's shooting, which unbelievably is not dominated by the US. Maybe if the targets were human we'd do better. Anyway, there are 1 billion people in India, and this is the first time any one of them has been the best in the world at any Olympic sport. Get out of the call centers and onto the practice fields and into the pools, India. Your country needs you.

Michael Phelps' training includes eating 8,000-10,000 calories per day. The only downside is he has to swim a lot.

Best discovery of the Olympics so far- this hot Chinese beach volleyball player, Xue Chen-

Selling High

No, I am not talking about daytrading while under the influence. I be talking about Kyle Kendrick.

Kendrick's line tonight: 6 IP, 4 H, 5 BB, 4 K

If I were given solely those numbers, I would guess that he gave up three runs. Maybe he gets lucky and only gives up a run, maybe one of those two of those hits are three-run home runs. But a shutout? Seriously? It is like any sense of rationale baseball projections are thrown out when he gets on the mound.

Kendrick's record is now 10-5 and he sports a 4.37 ERA. At the beginning of the season I figured MLB hitters would figure him out and he would not repeat his success of 2007. While his ERA is higher than last year, his winning percentage is essentially the same. AND THIS BLOWS MY MIND. Pitchers that give up over a hit an inning, post a WHIP around 1.50, and don't strike anyone out should not win two out of three decisions, unless they are members of the pre-humidor Rockies. There is only one explanation for his success: luck.

All of this factors into my early campaign to convince the Phillies to sell high on Kyle Kendrick this offseason. Assuming he doesn't implode in the last two months of the season, Kendrick will most likely finish with 13-15 wins. There are plenty of GMs in baseball that are dumb enough to get hung up on his win total and completely ignore his peripherals. These are the teams that Gamarobuckle (soon to be Arbuckamaro?) should take advantage of. Kendrick's luck is eventually going to run out and it would obviously benefit the Phillies to move him before he literally turns into a pumpkin. Of course the Phillies have never been accused of this type of forward thinking and will probably end up buying him out of his arbitration years and his first two years of free agency. And overpay to do so.

Steve Jeltz and other such men

Even to a 7 year old, it was pretty obvious that Steve Jeltz was one of the worst everyday players in baseball. An average fielder (on his good days), Jeltz was spectacularly bad at the plate. A switch-hitter, he gained no advantage from hitting from either side of the plate. He hit just 1 home run in his first 5 seasons (1,726 plate appearances) as a Phillie. He had a career batting average of .210 and was just 18 of 28 stealing bases for his career. Only 4 players since 1920 have more than 2000 career PA and a career SLG lower than Jeltz (.268), including the immortal Rafael Belliard. Amazing to think he once homered twice in one game (from both sides of the plate) since he was roughly as powerful as a sleeping toddler.

But looking over his numbers again, there is something surprising- Jeltzy took walks. Why would you ever throw the guy a ball? But he had a career OBP of .308- not impressive until you consider the .210 career BA. He actually averaged 55 BB per 162 games played, which is amazing when you consider he had almost zero ability with the bat. His career OPS+ gets a little boost from his inexplicable ability to draw walks. In fact, he's not even the worst Phillie in this category. Here, for fun, is a list of the 8 all-time worst Phillies hitters since 1930 as ranked by OPS+ (minimum 1500 PA as a Phillie). Obviously, it's shortstop heavy-

1. Bobby Wine- 59
I know he was a Gold Glove winning SS, but was his defense good enough to make up for this? I'll go find a crazed old man to ask.

2. Steve Jeltz- 64
Jeltz certainly did not play defense well enough to make up for this.

3. Denny Doyle- 66
Another defensive specialist, but at 2B. He became a better hitter after he left the Phillies in 1974. Shocking, I know.

4. Kevin Jordan- 68
This one mildly shocked me. I remember him as a being a pretty good hitting utility infielder. But he racked disciprine at the plate (I have permission from my girlfriend to mock Asian pronunciation).

5. Larry Bowa- 72
Picked up where Bobby Wine left off. Easily leads this list with over 7,000 PA as a Phillie and in Gold Gloves with 2. Fortunately for his nephew, he did not impart the secret knowledge of how to swing at the first pitch 90% of the time.

6. Ruben Amaro, Sr.- 74
The Bobby Wine of the Amaro family. Even platooned with Wine and still won a GG.

7. Ivan de Jesus- 78
Only played 3 years for the Phillies. Could hit a bit and took some walks, just had zero power. Traded by the Cubs for Larry Bowa and some prospect. And as we all know, that prospect was Julio Franco. Wait, wrong one. JD Drew. Nope. Peter Forsberg. Wrong sport. Ah, Ryne Sandberg.

8. Doug Glanville- 79
The worst non-infielder on the list. Hey, remember when he hit .325 that one year? Most of his years were nothing fucking like that. At least he could run. There is a theory that he was the prototype for Juan Pierre.

Honorable mention- Marlon Anderson (80), David Bell (84), Clay Dalrymple (84), Charlie Hayes (85), Kevin Stocker (85)

We're Not Alone

Kelly Dwyer at Ball Don't Lie speculating on a possible trade of Andre Iguodala and Willie Green to the Mavs for Josh Howard:

Philly gets a smoother shooter who can create, defend, and knows how to contribute when the looks aren't there, or the looks aren't falling. Better yet, at two more years for 20 million and then a team option for 11 more, the 76ers stay in contract control. Also, Willie Green stinks.

As our tens of loyal readers are aware, Jim and I have been making the case for years that Willie Green stinks (refreshers can be found here, here, here, here......you get the point).

Only downside to this article is that it how now replaced the greatest blog on the Internet about Philadelphia sports that is run by two old friends as the #1 result in Google when you search for "Willie Green stinks". That is the price of being right I guess.

The trade deadline- the Phillies do nothing.

Deadline's come and gone, and the Phils did nothing. Mark will be posting a retraction and apology for the Ron Mahay story as soon as Ed Wade becomes a good GM (seriously, LaTroy Hawkins?) or Exxon Mobil opens a wind farm.

I'm thinking of a word that rhymes with bunt...

Hearing Tom McCarthy and Sarge Matthews debate in the top of the 5th whether Jimmy Rollins, leadoff hitter and reigning NL MVP, should be given the green light to bunt with no one out, the 45-year old pitcher on first, and a man on second was enough to nearly make my TV commit seppoku. It was the 5th inning with the lineup turning over in a 1 run game against the worst team in baseball, possibly including Rookie and low-A ball. And you want to give up an out to maybe score one run. You're that scared of a double play ball? With a guy who has an OPS of 1.001 with runners on this season? Arrrrrgh.

Bunting still has it's place in baseball and in flag making. But there are too many situations where bunts are uncalled for and yet they end up being called for by the manager, fans, and announcers. Excessive bunting is a great strategy for teams that like to lose by one run. For more, here is an interesting blog post by Larry Dierker.

Ron Mahay and Oranges

EDIT: The Phillies may not have made this trade, but I don't like to remove the Internet. So my eagerness to bash the Phillies remains!!!

Say you have a grove of orange trees. And you have this one young orange tree that has some pretty good, but not great, oranges on it and it appears that that orange tree will produce good oranges for a lot of years to come. A lot of people would love to have a young orange tree like this that will give them delicious oranges for years to come. Now while you enjoy eating oranges, you have already have two great orange trees (though one of the orange trees has a problem being on time) that you use for your personal orange supply. It is unlikely that any of the oranges from this young tree will ever end up in your kitchen. Therefore, you decide to barter the orange tree to get something else that will please your palette. Maybe you get a great tomato plant or you try to couple that orange tree with a few other trees in your grove to get the best meal of your life.

Well, the Phillies just handed that orange tree over to the Royals and got an old hot dog. Welcome to Philadelphia, Ron Mahay.

We got a Rush brother!

And it's not JaRon! Kareem Rush signed with the Sixers yesterday. This is exciting stuff. While the Brand signing was obviously bigger than Jupiter and Saturn smashed together, these smaller, Kuiper Belt-sized object Rush and Royal Ivey signings are extremely important to the team too. Rush brings the outside shooting they need in a package that is much like Kyle Korver without his invisible leg irons attached. He's not a very good defender, but as long as he makes them 3's, it's a-okay.

The eventual rotation is looking like Andre Miller, Iggy, TYoung, Brand, and Dalembert starting, with Lou Williams, Royal Ivey, Rush, Jason Smith, and Marresssseeeee Speights backing up. That is a solid group of basketball gentlemen. And it obviously leaves 2 names out.

Willie Green and Reggie Evans are the square pegs (yes, like the old Sarah Jessica Parker show) here. With Rush and Ivey being signed to play on the perimeter, and with Lou Williams being groomed to move into a starting role eventually, it's hard to see Willie getting the 25 minutes a night he's accustomed to. And as hard as it is to admit, Willie was actually okay last year. He won't be kept around though if it means keeping him on the end of the bench. Perhaps they'll get him enough minutes at the 2, but it looks doubtful. A lot of it will depend on how much they believe Ivey can contribute. And of course if Iguodala is completely ineffective as a SG or they decide that it's worth keeping him as their SF, thus unwisely taking minutes away from Thaddeus Young, most of this analysis is worthless. Worthless analysis- always available from your Broad Street Bastards.

Reggie Evans got 23 minutes per game last year, which is about 10 minutes per game too much. He's great as a rebounder and a guy with a beard, but that is all. Perhaps they'll keep him in the rotation until Speights is ready, but his longer-term prospects with the Sixers are pretty dim.

Adam Eaton's Phillies Career (2007-2008)

July 28, 2008 (BSB NEWS)- IN Philadelphia, righthander Adam Eaton's Phillies career was not-so-tragically ended today when it was designated for assignment to the team's minor league affiliate in Allentown, PA. It was 1 5/8 years old. Eaton's career originated with the Phillies organization in 1996, but was interrupted by several years of mediocrity in other cities.

His career is survived by the floundering careers of Brett Myers and Joe Blanton, the knife Adam Eaton once stabbed himself with once while opening a DVD package, and 3 grandchildren, none of whom can throw a decent fastball.

Runs

This is a little known fact about the sport of baseball: In order to be successful, you typically have to score more runs than your opponents. When you achieve that objective, you receive more wins than losses and everyone goes to work the next day with a smile on their faces.

The Phillies used to be good at scoring runs. That was the thing that they did well. But apparently, that skill has gone away. Since June 17, the Phillies have averaged 3.77 runs per game. As a result, their record is 12-19 in that time span. Unless you have the 1992 Atlanta Braves pitching staff, it is going to be very difficult to rack up wins scoring signficantly less than 4 runs per game. Not surprisingly, also in that time span their team OPS is a pitiful .701.

I blame essentially everyone on the team not named Pat Burrell. Baseball is a game of ups and downs, but this is a Perfect Storm of everyone on the team being cold at the same time. Here are the individual OPS' in that time frame:

"Go-Go" Jimmy Rollins: .669 (69!!!!)
Shane "Killer" Victorino: .793
Chase "Margaritaville" Utley: .724
Ryan "Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun" Howard: .844
Pat "Girlicious" Burrell: .853
Geoff "No One Even Wants to Sponsor My Baseball Reference Page" Jenkins: .599
Jayson "Puffy Stickers" Werth: .807
Pedro "Garlic Parmesan" Feliz: .736
Carlos "Too Shitty To Even Be Given a Nickname" Ruiz: .454 (Including a .145 SLG)

It is frustrating to watch these guys continue to put 0's on the scoreboard. But I am hopeful that this offensive malaise will end shortly. Because that is what optimists do. That and score tons of chicks.

--------------------

Mike Hampton pitches for the Bravos todays against the Phils. Unfortunately, the game won't be on TV here in Chicago (Who doesn't want to watch another Yankees-Red Sox game? THANKS FOX!!!!), so I won't be able to witness first hand the first time a pitcher's arm literally falls off his body during a baseball game. But knowing Hampton's desire to pitch, he will probably pick it up, goto HUP and get it sewn back on, then pitch again in MLB in like three years.

Phaiku

Training camp is here
Westbrook is your MVP
God I hate the Mets

Lifespans of the Rich and Famous- Running Back Career Edition

NFL contract details are a bit much to digest. There's all this talk of guaranteed money, salary caps, paternity suit allowances, performance bonii, etc. But when Brian Westbrook, the soon to be 29 year old Pro Bowl, All-Pro, All-American, Al-Jazeera star of the Eagles' backfield, and his new agent Scrooge McDuck decide they want $30 million in guaranteed money in a 5 year deal, it's easy to see that this is not rational or sensical.

Westbrook is indeed the key to the Eagles offense. He is to it as Cole Hamels+Brad Lidge+Chase Utley (aka Cobrase Utlidels) is to the Phillies. He's that damn good. According to Football Outsiders, he was the second most valuable RB in the NFL last year, just a smidgen behind LaDanian Tomlinson. He ranked a very strong seventh in 2006. And yet within 3 years (at most), chances are he'll be washed up.

Such is life as an NFL running back. According to super-scientific research done by those same Football Outsiders and others, no other position on the field suffers as much from age and injuries. By age 30, most running backs, even the ones who still have their original knees, are running full speed into the imminent retirement wall, which has a nice mural of Marshall Faulk, Earl Campbell, Terrell Davis, and Roger Craig playing shuffleboard painted on it. Westbrook turns 29 on September 4th. Odds are that by Sept. 4, 2010 he'll be on his way out of the NFL.

Obviously he can avoid this probability. Fred Taylor seems to have gotten over his early career injury problems and is better than ever at age 32. Curtis Martin played well until age 78. Emmitt Smith was only mildly embarrassing as a player after 30, and nowhere near as embarrassing as he is as a commentator. He should get public speaking lessons from his step-daughter's bio-dad, Martin Lawrence. Outrageous things he would say! Anyway, the peculiar thing about probability is that when things are probable, they probably happen. And there is a probable probability that he's only got 2 or maybe 3 good seasons left. Certainly not 5.

There are things working to Westbrook's advantage. He was underused as a runner for the first 4 years of his career, so he doesn't have the mileage of several of the 30 year old washouts. Also he now wears a gypsy shrunken head charm that protects his knees. It's worked pretty well the past 2 years.

Westbrook does deserve a big pay check for the next 2 years. Anything longer and there's a good chance (yes, it is a chance, not a certainty) it will cripple the team after he breaks down. As a business, they always should pay for the performance they're expecting, not just the performance they've gotten. Perhaps they could compromise and offer something like 3 years, $20 million guaranteed. That seems like a fair deal (to me anyway, since I only make $5 million a year and know how hard it is), and would not only make him extremely highly paid for his position but would also prevent the Eagles from over-investing in Westbrook; not neccessarily in money, but in time.

Stop The Madness!

The Matt Holliday trade talk will not go away. So one more time, here is the case against trading Shane Victorino, Carlos Carrasco, JA Happ, and Lou Marson for a package of the possibly overrated Holliday and pitcher Brian Fuentes, who actually is a pretty awesome reliever but will be a free agent after this season.

Holliday's overall career numbers-
642 games, .321/.385/.556, 119 HR, 450 RBI (for those who deeply care about RBI)

Career HOME numbers AGAIN-
331 games, .363/.426/.659, 80 HR, 289 RBI

Career AWAY numbers-
311 games, .277/.341/.449, 39 HR, 161 RBI

Holliday at CBP-
a very small sample size of 59 PA, .283/.356/.547, 4 HR

For argument's sake, let us pretend that those last numbers actually approximate what he would put up for the Phillies (an OPS of .900 or so). That would still be pretty darn good, and way better than his current career numbers outside of Coors Field. Even then, it is questionable whether it is worth further gutting the farm system by giving away the guy who projects to be the Phillies No. 2 starter by 2010 (Carrasco, not Happ), a good catching prospect for a team that desperately needs a catcher, and a starter whose minor league performance shows that he may actually be better than the guy who projects to be the No. 2 starter in 2010 (this is Happ). And while Victorino may be a fan favorite because he's fast and people are led to believe he wears a hula skirt and eats poi in the clubhouse, he is actually expendable. Sorry, Spam lovers.

There is another issue with Holliday, albeit a smaller one- where does he play? The guy has only played LF his entire career, and that's where Man Machine Burrell lives. Obviously, if they do acquire Holliday they can always put him in RF and move him back to LF when the cheap-ass Phillies don't re-sign Burrell after this season's crushing playoff defeat. But what about the remainder of this year? Moving Holliday from LF to RF isn't like moving Ryan Howard to SS, but it would force him to perform in an unnatural position, which is fine for pornography, sure. But in baseball, not so good.

It's become obvious they need some help on offense. And since the Phils won't do simple things like STOP BATTING JIMMY ROLLINS LEADOFF or STOP PULLING BURRELL FROM EVERY CLOSE GAME or GO BACK IN TIME AND RE-SIGN AARON ROWAND, they probably do need to acquire another bat to make up for the damage that Geoff Jenkins, Pedro Feliz, and Carlos Ruiz cause to the offense. And that player will likely have to come in the form of an outfielder. The questionable call here is whether Holliday is the bat they need and whether the cost for his services is too high. As the supposed deal on the table is structured now, it probably is.

75 Words on the Blanton Deal

When you deal your organization's top positional prospect, the return has to be better than Joe Blanton. At his best, Blanton is a 2/3 who will "eat innings" but still doesn't strike a lot of guys out. At his worst, he is a slight upgrade over Adam Eaton. His career road ERA of 4.78 is frightening. And there was no reason to throw in Outman as well. Thanks Pat Gillick and enjoy retirement.

The Zo Spin Zone

From Todd Zolecki's blog regarding the Joe Blanton deal (which reads a lot like an employee of the Phillies wrote):

Take away his four worst starts this season and he has a 3.58 ERA,

This is what we refer to as "cherrypicking". When you have a sample size of 200 starts, maybe you can point to four starts as an aberration. When you have a sample size of 20 starts, pulling out four starts equates to 20% of Blanton's performance. Would you justify a batter's first half performance by removing 60 at bats? Of course not. So why do it with a pitcher?

But if you're going to play this game, you can look at it from a lot of different angles.

Take away Joe Blanton's four best starts this season and he has a 5.82 ERA.

Take away Adam Eaton's four worst starts this season and he has a 4.15 ERA.

Take away Cole Hamels' four worst starts this season and he has a 2.10 ERA.

THIS IS WHY YOU DON'T REMOVE 20% OF YOUR SAMPLE SIZE.

I liked the pun I used for the title.

David Murphy on Matt Holliday in the DN today-

Matt Holliday, outfielder Colorado- We won't bore you with the stats. OK, yes, we will: .337 batting average, .421 on-base percentage, 14 home runs, 51 RBI. Holliday is a stud.

I'd like to make a correction to his statement that Holliday is some sort of male horse who breeds with female horses- Holliday is a stud ONLY AT COORS FIELD. For his career, he has an impressive Home OPS of 1.086, but a pedestrian Away OPS of .790. Sure, a little bit of that can be blamed on the fact that he has to play a lot of away games at Petco Park and Dodger Stadium, but those splits show his overall stats are more a product of the thin Colorado air rather than massive studliness.

And this goes on throughout their lineup- Todd Helton has a career Home OPS of 1.114 (!) and an Away OPS of .888 (good, but not ! good). Garrett Atkins, a player most Phillies fans would love to have at the hot corner, has a career .934 Home OPS and a .765 career Away OPS. Brad Hawpe, amazingly, bucks the trend- his career Home OPS is .876 and Away it is only .32 points lower. Yorvit Torrealba was a terrible hitter before he went to Colorado... and, well, still is.

Now, the Phillies also play in a park known as hitter friendly. But their splits aren't nearly as severe as the Rockies. Chase Utley has a career Home OPS of .945 and an Away OPS of .867. Ryan Howard- .984 Home, .962 Away. Pat Burrell has almost identical splits- .858 Home and .859 Away (although he did play in the Vet for a few years). Rollins also played in the Vet, and his Home OPS is .800, Away .747. And last year in his MVP season, he had a Home OPS of .892 and an Away OPS of .859. Not a huge gap there.

Perhaps the best example of the Coors Field effect is Vinny Castilla. The guy put up a bunch of 30-40 HR season for the Rockies in the 90's, left and struggled in ATL, TB, and HOU for a couple years, then in 2004 goes back to COL and hits 35 dongs and 43 doubles at 36 years old. The next year in WAS, he hit 12 HR in 494 AB. Larry Walker's another one- he was Superman when he played for Colorado, but was a mere Green Arrow or Booster Gold on Montreal and St. Louis. Dante Bichette's another one who was just plain average outside of Coors. And the list goes on.

The point of all this, of course, is screw the Rockies, and be glad that they absolutely suck this year. Losers.

*I realize that Castilla and Walker are "pre-Coors Field humidor" guys. But it doesn't change much. Holliday has played his entire career in the Colorado post-humidor world.

Who is Jimmy Rollins?

From Sam Donnellon’s piece in today’s DN on Jimmy Rollins’ inconsistency at the plate-

This season, when Rollins has scored, the record is 21-7.

So they’re 21-7 because Jimmy Rollins scored? No. Obviously his point is Rollins needs to get on base for the Phillies to be at their best. But why pick on Jimmy for not being on base more often? It’s no secret that it’s just not a big part of his game.

Jimmy Rollins is a very good player. Awesome power for his size, outstanding speed, a very good fielder, and just the right amount of cockiness (usually). But he is not a great leadoff hitter. His current OBP of .340 is actually better than his career OBP of .332, and is close to his OBP last season of .344. So the “problem” with Jimmy isn’t that he suddenly isn’t getting on base; the problem is he’s NEVER excelled at getting on base. He’s very ordinary and average when it comes to that.

In fact, the one thing he did significantly better than usual last year had nothing to do with just getting on base; it was getting extra bases when he hit. His SLG of .531 last year is 90 points better than his career SLG of .441. And lo and behold- his SLG this year is .438, right around his career average. Jimmy hasn’t fallen apart; he’s just having an average year by his standards. It's who Jimmy is.

Elton B is President

To say the Elton Brand signing is exciting is an understatement, like saying Salma Hayek is okay looking or Jesse Jackson is kind of a jackass for wanting to cut off Obama’s nuts. He is easily the best post player here since Charles Barkley (sorry, Sharone Wright) and instantly makes the Sixers one of the top 4 teams in the East.

Obviously, this is all contingent on him being healthy, which several surgeons and holistic healers say he is. If this makes any sense, it’s actually more reassuring that the signing was made under the reign of Ed Stefanski rather than Billy King. First of all, Billy King never would have gotten the deal done because he would have already signed someone like Nenad Kristic or Balki from Perfect Strangers to a max deal. But there is also a reassuring aspect in the fact that Stefanski probably looked very closely at Brand’s health, whereas Billy King had no problems going after players who make a ton of money and only have one good leg. It’s far easier to trust Stefanski’s instincts than BK’s.

So what’s next for the revamped Sixers? Six consecutive titles? Appearances in Scooby Doo cartoons? Maybe, but probably not. Obviously their biggest need is someone who can shoot from more than 8 feet away from the net, and they don’t have a whole lot of money to play with to get someone like that. But moves can be made, and for now let us just thank the ghost of Billy King (what, he’s not dead?) for becoming ever less present in the Sixers front office and enjoy the beginning of a new era for Sixers basketball.

NOTE TO DESTROY THE OPTIMISM OF THIS POST: Elton Brand will probably only play 93 mediocre games as a Sixer before retiring due to injuries.

No More Vlad

90 Games Played Against the Phillies
31 Home Runs
.373 BA
.745 SLG
1.213 OPS

We get it, you like to hit against the Phillies. You don't need to prove it anymore.

Major Tom, this is Ground Control. Stop singing and return to base immediately.

Over the last six weeks or so, Jim and I have received a decent amount of correspondence from our rapid teenage girl fanbase (note to the authorities: all emails with a picture are deleted immediately so there is no reason to look at all the other porn on our computers on one of your fishing expeditions) asking us what is up with the lack of updates to the site. For instance, Kara, 14 from Drexel Hill, wrote the following:

Hey guyz? Whtzup?!?! When willz u2 rite a new post? W/B/S. Kara

Well Kara, we do appreciate your concern, but sometimes other aspects of our lives receive more priority than this website. I can't speak for Jim, but I have been so caught up in the battle to determine Zimbabwe's next President that I have pretty much been ignoring sports completely. But I do think I can take a quick break from going over the latest poll data from Masvingo to answer a few questions about the Phillies. First though, I must cease laughing at "heady" David Eckstein getting picked off first in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game with no outs and Alex Rios about to get on base with a walk.

Is Ryan Howard going to turn it around or will he break his own strike out record?

Yes and yes. Howard's current BABIP is .259, which is significantly less than his three year average of .346 from '05-'07. Unless managers have figured out exactly where to play all seven guys in the field when Howard is at bat, the easiest explanation to the drop in BABIP is simply luck. For whatever reason, when Howard puts the ball in play, it is not finding the holes that it did the past three seasons. This number will go up or I'm not the next coach of the Chicago Bulls. His lack of walks is still concerning to me (Howard has two eight game streaks without taking a walk, he had zero such streaks in '07), I think he will start getting more hits in the next few months.

As far as the strikeouts go, Ryan Howard is always going to swing and miss at a lot of baseballs. If he gets ten at bats in a game, which I am predicting will happen August 29 at Wrigley and the Phils will win 32-28, Howard will strike out three times. The strike outs are the necessary evil that come with his insane power. People who suggest that he should choke up or just try to make contact probably need to go reassure their son that even if he isn't the best player on the team, he is still loved, because I'm sure he has his doubts.

Are there any players out there that the Phillies could trade for?

Probably, but it is still very early. I think a big prize will be Brian Fuentes of the Rockies, who is having another great year in that awful ballpark (ERA+ of 184). He only makes $5 million this year and will be a free agent at the end of this season. He would be a great addition to the back of the Phillies bullpen, but I don't know if the Rockies would be willing to take back a lot of guys in A ball because that is all the Phillies can afford to trade.

What can save the Mets season?

Hopefully nothing. Their current situation is much too entertaining for it to stop.

If the season ended on June 9, would Chase Utley be the MVP?

No. But if the baseball season ended on June 9, I think there would be much more important topics to talk about. Like, who is going to take my dollar coins in return for hot dogs later this summer?

Has Pedro Feliz won you over yet?

I am doing my best to ignore how awful he is as a hitter and just focus on the stability that he adds in the field. He does have a rocket for an arm and makes most of the plays he has to. But he is going to end the season with an OPS+ around 80-85 and hopefully the human out machine doesn't hurt them in the playoffs.

Hungry?

Yes. Meeting over.

Eagles Post-Draft Analysis

Why bother with traditional analysis? As has been done since time immemorial, here are the BSB 92.3% accurate predictions for the newest Eagles'-

Trevor Laws- will be in the starting DT rotation this year. Will have a solid, but unspectacular, career of about 10 seasons. Will die in 2049 of a massive heart attack brought on by over consumption of Neat, a future near-meat food substance.

DeSean Jackson- will be returning kicks from day 1. Will be a decent No. 3 WR by day 1,671, hopefully. Dies in 2087 as a result of 'Bot Rot when his artificially intelligent robotic replacement wrist becomes deranged and forces DeSean to choke himself to death.

Bryan Smith- spends 2 years buried on the DE depth chart, gets 2 career sacks. Dies in 2010 of loneliness. And DragonAIDS (coming August 2010).

Michael McGlynn- starting RG in 2 years, as Shawn Andrews will be at RT by then. Lasts 8 years in the NFL. Dies in 2039 in the Bottled Water Wars.

Quintin Demps- career special teamer and backup safety, but a decent one. Bounces around the NFL for 9 seasons. Dies in 2056 by the hand of his Sexbot, which suffers an S&M chip failure in its safe word matrix.

Jack Ikegwuonu- never plays a down. Ends up in the Arena League. Shot dead in 2018 attempting a home invasion to steal an XBox360, not realizing he totally could have gotten a newer, more powerful XBox660 from the unarmed fella next door.

Michael Gibson- bounces around the league for a few years as a 3rd/4th Guard. Strangely, he is IMMORTAL.

Joe Mays- never plays a down. Come on, he's an ILB and runs a 4.9 40. Dies in 2029 when he tries to run and is so impossibly slow he violates the laws of physics and causes a time-space paradox to occur which blinks him out of existence.

Andrew Studebaker- adds a few pounds, keeps his speed, becomes a decent situational pass rusher. Has a good career cut short by his untimely death in 2013 due to the Hot Pockets Fever epidemic.

King Dunlap- Despite his wonderful Wonderlic score and what surely must be a massive penis, he doesn't even make the team. Dies peacefully in 2040 at home in his giant bed, calling out for Rosebud, a strain of marijuana which unfortunately in 2040 is extinct.

The Only NFL Draft Preview You Need If You Are A Fan of the Philadelphia Friggin Eagles

Here are three interesting facts that very few people know about me:

• My lucky number is a fraction (5/12!!!)
• Though when people discuss scenes from the movie I always nod my head in agreeance, I've never seen Braveheart
• I am an Expert Prognosticator when it comes to the NFL Draft.

Without further ado, behold my 2008 NFL Eagles Draft Preview (for the first three rounds)

Round 1 (Pick 19)
Best Case: Because of rumors of addiction to JuJubes and video games, Glenn Dorsey takes part in a monumental draft slide and is available at Pick 19. After a lot of thought (and Tastykakes), Andy Reid rolls the dice and selects Dorsey. Reid tries to get Dorsey on the phone to congratulate him, but Dorsey is too busy creating a Mii of himself with an Eagles jersey to import into Madden '08.
Worst Case: After wasting their first pick in last year's draft on Kevin Kolb, the Eagles decide that they would like to have a real competition for the backup quarterback position and select Joe Flacco, the QB from U of Delaware. Jay Fielder declines to comment on the pick.
Most Likely Case: Aqib Talib, the corner back from Kansas. The over/under on the time it takes someone to call WIP with the question, "Why did we just pick a terrorist instead of ...." is 7 minutes and 24 seconds after the pick is announced.

Round 2 (Pick 49)
Best Case: After the first round, it becomes much harder to project the draft picks, mainly because of trades and the fact that I haven't heard of any of the guys that are still available. So I think the best case scenario is that they trade this pick and Lito Sheppard to move up in the draft to take someone I've heard of. Like James Hardy.
Worst Case: In an attempt to draft more local players to appease the drunk fans, Reid selects Ray Rice, RB from Rutgers. With Westbrook and Buckhalter already in at the first two spots of the depth chart, Rice will most likely sit most of the season or be converted to a middle linebacker. Great value pick.
Most Likely Case: Duane Brown, offensive tackle from Virgina Tech. Two reasons: Andy Reid loves sitting next to offensive linemen at press conferences to make himself look thinner and 04/16/07 - Never Forget.

Round 3 (Pick 80)
Best Case: This is where the Eagles scouting pays off. With the 80th pick, the Eagles select Raymond Alafoutise, a 6'7 265 pound physical specimen from Harare, Zimbabwe. Though he has never played American Football in his life, Alafoutise can run a 4.2 40 yard dash (in his bare feet), can bench 225 pounds 54 times (ableit 225 pounds in artillery shells), can kick a ball (soccer) over 85 yards. It was Reid's wife who discover Alafoutise from a Mormon Mission brochure on Zimbabwe. It is projected that Alafoutise will play both offense and defense, but will not be given a position. The Eagles staff will just point at players and expect Alafoutise to destroy them.
Worst Case: After losing a golf bet to John Chaney, Reid is forced to pay up and selects Gary Stockman, WR from Temple. Though he has no official stats from his playing days at Temple, Stockman's unique stature (5'6 160 pounds) makes him the smallest non-kicker in the NFL. This could be another Vince Papale story in the making. Or not.
Most Likely Case: Andre Caldwell, wide receiver from Florida. Because Florida receivers have panned out so well in the NFL.

That is it. You are welcome.

Hey, how 'bout them Flyers?

We've been getting a lot of mail, or so I will have you pretend to believe, about our lack of coverage of the Flyers and the playoffs excitement surrounding them. First of all, we specifically apologize to the Flyers in the blog's heading for our lack of coverage of them. IS THAT NOT ENOUGH? For further explanations of why we're not giving them a lot of attention, lookie here-

1. Lack of hockey knowledge. Between Mark and I, we can name a total of about 12 NHL players and the team they play for. This includes Flyers. And the reason we have so little knowledge is...

2. Lack of hockey interest. This was not always the case. Growing up in the suburbs of Philly, we were bombarded daily with Flyers chat and kept up with their goings on. But these days, with Mark living in the hockey dead zone of Chicago and me downtown in Philly where hockey is a distinct No. 4 of the major sports (and soon to be No. 5 when soccer comes), the other 3 sports just get much more of our tireless devotion to grown men playing games for outrageous sums of money.

2A. The Lockout. This was what killed hockey for me. I was already drifting away from it, and then the whole 2004-2005 season was cancelled. When the NHL came back, I realized I hadn't missed hockey all that much, especially since I'd filled the time with a home locksmithing course from ICS. Thank you, Sally Struthers.

3. Coatsey's Corner. Just kidding. Or am I? Actually, the hockey nicknaming convention of just adding a "y" to the end of everyone's last name (or a shortened version of it) is pretty annoying. Mosquito swarms at a BBQ annoying.

I still enjoy going to see live hockey a great deal. And hey, we're enjoying watching the Flyers playoff games and looking at other teams playoff rosters and saying "He's still in the league?" and "Holy shit, I didn't know he was on the Sharks."

Maybe we're bad fans for jumping on the bandwagon at playoff time, but as I always say, it's better to be on the bandwagon than under its wheels having your internal organs crushed into paste.

Let's Look At the Positives

Instead of messing with the Sixers karma, I choose instead to look at the positives of the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies. It is much easier to harp on the negative (which you can find at www.pleasegoaway.farfaraway.ericbruntlett.com) so instead I would like to look at the positive side of the first three weeks of the Phillies' season.

Positive Point #1 - Chase Utley is Superhuman
In a summer that is going to be dominated by Iron Man, Batman, and the Hulk, it is only appropriate that Chase Utley reveal himself as Planet Earth's first real superhero. So far this year, Utley leads the NL in Home Runs, Slugging, OPS, Total Bases, High Fives, Extra Base Hits, Fastest Rope Climb, Batting Wins, At-Bats per Home Runs, and Overall Swellness. Once Chipper Jones does his first stint on the DL (over/under May 11 (Reminder that is Mother's Day (Just wanted to throw in another set of parentheses))), Utley will be the clear cut favorite to win the MVP. At that point, the NL may have to institute a new rule that bans any Phillie from winning the award for the next five years until their core players are out of their peak.

Positive Point #2 - Pat Burrell is the White Jesus
If you look back far enough on the archives here, you will find a post where I advocated getting rid of Burrell because his power had all but disappeared. What you did not know was that I was using reverse psychology, figuring that if I joined the bandwagon of idiots who envied Burrell because of his salary and lifestyle, then Burrell would become a great hitter. And you know what? It gosh darn worked. I'm not sure why Paul Hagen or Jayson Stark haven't called me up with an interview request, but it probably has something to do with the fact that the Philadelphia area isn't ready for this kind of heady story. Or they just don't have my phone number.

Positive Point #3 - The Phillies Bullpen is Unhittable
This is more Jim's point than mine (as well as my imaginary internet friend "airborne"), but I will re-iterate it (or would I just be iterating it since Jim has not made it here?): The Phillies bullpen has been brilliant.

• Brad Lidge: 8.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8 Ks
• JC Romero: 9.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 10 Ks
• Rudy Seanez: 7.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP (this will not last if his K:BB ratio stays at 1:2.33)
• Chad "The Real Real Deal" Durbin: 14.0 IP, 0.64 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

These guys have pitched over four total games combined and given up one run. We call that it in the baseball business "good". So while Kyle Kendrick re-negotiates his deal with Satan, these guys are keeping the Phillies in games.

Positive Point #4 - Charlie Manuel Could Make a Quadriplegic Walk
Last season, Rod Barajas joined the Phillies and brought along a career OBP of under .300. In his one season with the Phillies, he put up an OBP of .352, 46 points higher than his career high, while only hitting .230. In 400 years, alien researchers will look at these statistics and then look at each and scream, "What the FUCK?!?" But then they'll realize that Ole' Chuck Manuel was their manager and it was slowly make sense to them and they can figure out more efficient ways to enslave the human race.

Well, Ole' Chuck is at it again, this time with Pedro Happy. Pedro has a career BA of .251 and a career OBP of .288. This season his OBP is right in line with his career mark at .282, but he is doing it with a BA almost 50 points lower than his career average at .203. He is on pace for 54 walks which would absolutely shatter his career high. In fact, if he were to reach 54 walks, that would represent almost 27% of Mr. Happy's career total of walks that he has accumulated in six plus seasons of being a regular. And who is responsible for allowing us to marvel at the physical specimen that is Pedro Feliz trot to first base? Ole' Chuck Manuel, of course.

Positive Point #5 - Cole Hamels
If someone came up to me and yelled, "DID YOU SEE THE PHILLIES GAME TODAY COLE HAMELS SHOT LIGHTNING OUT OF HIS HAND", I would calmly grab both of their shoulders and politely ask them "Was it out of his left hand or right?" If Pat Burrell is the White Jesus, then Cole Hamels the White Jesus that Pitches As Well. And that concept completely blows Ben Stein's Mind.

Positive Point #6 - Phillies Lead the Majors in Home Runs
When I was a young lad attending Phillies games in the best seats at the Vet, people used to get so excited seeing a home run because they were so rare. In fact, we would talk on the car ride to the game how lucky we would be if we got to see, gasp, two home runs hit by the Phillies. When I think about stories like these it reminds me how lucky I was that I was never kidnapped in any of the weird bathrooms or other nooks at the Vet. That place was a creep's heaven with all the dark corners and easy exits. Yikes!

Positive Point #7 - It isn't even May yet
The team is .500. If it weren't for their inept training staff, Jimmy Rollins would probably be playing right now. Howard will eventually start hitting or else I'll have to write him a letter telling him that he is my hero, but he is letting me down and include a picture of me threatening to kill my cat if he doesn't pick it up. I'm not worried. You should not be either.

Walk Hard

I was thumbing through the 2008 Phillies' Media Guide and was intrigued by Pedro Feliz' bio. In response to the question, "What are your three top pet peeves, in no particular order", Pedro listed the following:

• Sushi
• People who don't close closets
• Taking four pitches that are out of the strike zone during an at bat

The first week of the Feliz Era did not exactly make anyone forget Charlie Hayes. Over the course of his first 20 plate appearances (WARNING: WE ARE STILL IN THE LAND OF EXTREMELY SMALL SAMPLE SIZES) and he produced 4 singles and 1 walk. Hopefully Week 2 at leasts sees the debut of Pedro Feliz on second base after a plate appearance.

It is fun to trash Feliz, but as a whole, the Phillies' offense has been pretty putrid outside of Chase Utley and Pat Burrell. This will turn around. The pitching on the other hand......

According to Jayson Stark....

"There are signs that Ryan Howard wants an unprecedented contract - he won't be using Miguel Cabrera as his model. A trade before he reaches free agency (after the 2010 season) seems likely."

My sources tell me he wants to be paid in Euros and blank DVD-Rs. Definitely unprecedented.

Season's Over, Part Two

Aaron Rowand would not have stood for an 0-2 start. Neither would Larry Bowa. It's time to get rid of all these soft losers and get a bunch of guys who will care about the first week of the season. Fire Manuel, waive Burrell, trade Howard. THESE GUYS NEED A WAKEUP CALL.

Back to Planet Earth.

The Good: Cole Hamels was quite nasty tonight. The wind was blowing in significantly, but I don't care about the weather. I care about results. 8 innings, 5 hits, and one run should get it done on most nights.

The Bad: Except on this night when the offense only was able to muster up one hit. When International Pop Superstar Pedro Feliz is responsible for filling out the team's entire box score, it is going to be difficult to win.

The Ugly: A little off topic, but how can the NBA allow Miami to charge customers that actually want to attend their games? Their starting five is Ricky Davis, Earl Barron, Mark Blount, Chris Quinn, and Daquean Cook. Their bench is four deep and I've never heard of any of the four dudes. They have failed to score 80 points in six of their last eleven games. They've lost by an average of 20 points in their last four games. This might be the worst team to ever play in the NBA.

Missing Aaron Rowand

THE SEASON IS RUINED AFTER ONE GAME BECAUSE ROWAND IS GONE!

Of couse, Sam Donnellon says that's not his point in writing this article. But....... it is.

I love this too-

"Utley, who launched a sixth-inning home run, had the front of his shirt caked in dirt by game's end."

That's right- he's a real ballplayer. Hey, Tom Gordon- get some fucking dirt caked on you and maybe you'll be good like Chase. I don't care if you have to have jump in a dumpster before you take the mound, get dirty dammit!

Season's Over, Part One

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly from the season opener.

The Good: Chase Utley had a nice game at the plate with his first home run and two hits for the day. And he didn't bobble an easy groundball that led to a crucial run like another star player on the team who plays a middle infield position, but will remain nameless.

The Bad: Charlie Manuel continues to make me question why MLB teams have humans managing them and not monkeys. He is probably going to catch a lot of heat for pulling JC Romero for Tom Gordon, but that is one of those situations where he is only right if it works. If Romero stays in and gives up a ton of runs, then he is an idiot for not brining in Gordon. It is too early to stretch these relievers out.

My problem was his decision in the first inning of the first game of the year to have Victorino bunt Rollins over to third with no one out. The only way this decision makes sense is if one of the following is true:

• The Phillies offense is terrible
  
• The Phillies pitching staff is good enough to hold a one run lead for the next eight innings.
• It is 1948 and all the town is buzzing about how Thomas Dewey is going to make a great President.

It just boggles my mind that they would be playing for one run in the home opener in the first inning. The bottom of their order is not exactly Murderer's Row, so the Phillies need to squeeze every bit of offense from Rollins/Victorino/Utley/Howard/Burrell as possible. Sacrificing Victorino to move Utley over to third does not fall into that category.

The Ugly: Tom Gordon and his 135.01 ERA. I really enjoy it for the first week or so when pitchers have to carry around these monstrous ERAs after one or two bad outings. And Gordon was bad. Hopefully he can get one more year out of that arm of his or Brad Lidge has a time machine. Otherwise the last few innings are not going to be pleasant to watch.

---------
Pedro Feliz is going to be the whipping boy this year, at least here. And he did nothing to prove us wrong today, going 0-4 with two strikeouts, a double play, and leaving three guys on base. But hey, he might hit 20 home runs and everyone knows how awesome home runs are!!!

Your 2008 Philadelphia Phillies

It's opening day, so what the fuck, here's a Phillies preview.

They're not winning the division. Hey, if they do win it again, that's great, and it'll be a drunk and happy time if they do. But with the Mets adding the best pitcher in the world to their already good team and the Braves looking like they'll win more than 84 games this year, the Phils are going to be in a massively bloody and gory battle, replete with missing limbs and infected pus-filled wounds, for the division, let alone the Wild Card.

Offensively, they're in very good shape, although it'll be hard to match last season's incredible 892 runs scored unless MLB suddenly allows DH's in the NL. Their 2008 PECOTA projection is 839 runs scored, and who can argue with the mighty PECOTA program? No one. The Phils should have one of the top three offenses in the NL, as they usually do. The loss of Aaron Rowand's offense will be countered by the addition of Geoff Jenkins (vs. RHP anyway) and increased playing time for Jayson Werth. And the loss of Rowand's grit will be countered by the addition of grits to the players' pre-game meal. Also, reports that Pedro Feliz is an upgrade on offense are as inaccurate as Willie Green from 3 point range. He's 32 and has a career OBP of .288. Yeah, he'll hit 25 HR's, but he is not going to push the offense into bold new high-scoring places. But that's okay- healthy seasons from top producers Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell (YES PAT BURRELL), and Jimmy Rollins means a potent offense and plenty of support for the pitching staff.

And the pitching staff is going to need it. Obviously there are high hopes for another great season from Cole Hamels and the return to starting of Brett Myers. But after that, things get buggy. Jamie Moyer is a savvy vet, and old war-horse, and not totally decrepit at 45 but is coming off his worst season since 2004. Kyle Kendrick did an amazing job last year and is fun to prank but will have a hard time duplicating that success now that's he's a known commodity. And Adam Eaton fucking sucks.

In the bullpen, new closer Brad Lidge of course is starting the season on the DL because the Phillies' training staff is on the Mets' payroll (conspiracy theory in development). This leaves the closing duties to Tom Gordon, who was so ineffective last season that he was only the 4th best reliever on the Philadelphia Phillies. JC Romero, he of the 1.24 ERA with the Phils in '07, is as streaky as decent relievers get. Evidence of his streakiness- his career ERA is 4.30, but he's never had a single season with an ERA in the 4's. They're all higher or lower. Expect something a little closer to, but hopefully not higher than, that career ERA number from him this season. Ryan Madson started pitching very well before he got hurt last year; hopefully he used a bookmark so he can easily pick up where he left off. And other than that, the 'pen is full of unproven and below average stuff, like an Old Navy store.

As far as intangibles go, you can expect them to be very good when the Phillies are winning, and very poor when the Phillies are losing. It's frigging sports; teams have fun when they are winning and are miserable when they're losing.

Overall, after last year's amazing run the expectations for the Phillies this season are extremely high. But the reality is they're in a tough division and have a pitching staff of dubious quality. This sums it up- the Mets went out and got Johan Santana; the Phillies went out and got Kris and Anna Benson. Advantage- Mets (unless you're really into bitchy right-wing women with huge racks). Put the questionable pitching together with the Phillies explosive offense, and they're an 87 win team. A few things break right, and they'll win 90.

And that's my final predicition- 90 wins, and the Wild Card spot. Go Phils.

The Return of Bad Willie Green

And its bad, bad willie green

Worst darn shooter that I've ever seen
Badder than stale chow mien
And his shooting does hurt my spleen

While the Sixers have been playing amazing basketball, they have been doing it in spite of our favorite whipping boy Willie Green. His numbers for the last four games:

vs Orlando: 1-9 from the field, 2 points
vs New Jersey: 3-17 (17 shots?!?!), 9 points
vs Boston: 1-7, 4 points
vs Chicago: 4-14, 9 points, 4 turnovers (and the rest of the Sixers only totaled 4 turnovers for the entire game)

Adding these four games together and you get a guy shooting 19%, yet averaging almost 12 shots a game.

Now I will admit, Jim and I weren't exactly standing on top of the mountain, singing Willie's praises in January and February when he was playing the best basketball of his career. But we are here ready to pounce on him as he returns to his patented methods of awfulness. Hopefully he either a)at least gets back to being mediocre or b)the rest of the Sixers are able to overcome his terribleness. I really hope that Willie Green is not the reason the Sixers get bounced out of the playoffs early.

A Sixers Legend

Last Friday at the Sixers/Sonics game, I had to explain to my girlfriend that there is indeed a man who once played for and now works for the Sixers whose legal name is World B. Free. Even after they showed his picture and name on the giant arena video screen during a boring halftime presentation of some award or somesuch, she did not believe such a man existed.

Free had a solid if not spectacular career. He was mostly known for his scoring ability although the man was a bit of a playmaker as well. Even though his best seasons were not in Philadelphia, the Sixers were his first NBA team and therefore have a special place in his heart (according to me). But what else do we know about the man named World B. Free? Very little in my case. So we're done discussing him.

With things occurring like Willie Green lighting things up and Rodney Carney not constantly embarrassing himself on the court, I feel pretty good about the Sixers assembled cast these days, and I feel good about their future too. Iggy is a borderline star, Thaddeus Young continues to give me basketboners, Sam Dalembert no longer takes (many) jump hooks from the top of the key. There are plenty of questions, like "Can Lou Williams take over from Andre Miller and play the point someday?", and "Can Reggie Evans go play somewhere else but leave his rebounding ability behind for some other player who does not have useless, Edward Scissorhands-like hands?" We shall see. The Sixers have not been this exciting to follow in quite some time.

Adam Eaton

People and things that would do better as the Phillies' fifth starter rather than Adam Eaton will-

JD Durbin
Kris Benson, even with his girl first name
62 year old Dock Ellis and a shitload of LSD
The remains of Cory Lidle, if there were any
My cat Sammy
Casper the Friendly Ghost (real one, not the cartoon)
A batting practice machine on medium speed

Please, Adam, go on the DL. And then go away.

L33T Wide Receiver Needed?

Please excuse the nerd speak. There is much buzz in the media and among fans that the Eagles have, to put it mildly, totally fucked up and ruined the upcoming season by not getting a top-flight wide receiver this off-season. All the talk of Randy Moss meetings and Larry Fitzgerald trades has been quieted, with Moss re-signing with the Pats and Fitzgerald apparently content to play for a hapless team that will pay him about 43% of their salary cap number every season until 3 years after his legs fall off. Besides, the Cardinals management, though they are dumbasses, wasn't going to trade their top receiver for Lito Sheppard and draft picks.

Other than Moss, the free agent market for WR's was weak. Bernard Berrian may have looked good based on his 948 yards receiving last year with the Bears, but he's really a slightly above-average receiver who had a ton of passes thrown in his direction last year. The Eagles already have this player; his name is Reggie Brown. Donte Stallworth was talked about, but bringing him and his iffy hamstrings back was obviously not in the cards or in the budget. And if they really do want an injury case, Javon Walker is still available.

The person who is being hurt the most in all of this is Kevin Curtis, who is probably very depressed (or not) about this chatter that the Eagles sorely need WR help. Sure, maybe he'd have loved being the counterpart Wes Welker to Randy Moss in Philly, but that ignores the fact that Curtis had a really good year last year with Reggie Brown lining up on the other side of the field and Donovan McNabb's occasional struggling. He's not a big red-zone target, but he's a fine receiver.

With McNabb back near 100% this year and the cast of receivers they already have, the Eagles could and should be one of the top 10 passing teams in the NFL again. That is unless they lose 1,000 yards in sacks, which could happen. The prospect of their ancient tackles getting hurt and Winston Justice starting against the Giants is far scarier than the possibility they won't add another WR before the season begins.

They got a good corner. They got a pass rusher. It would have been nice if they got a super-duper wide receiver too, but other than Moss there was no one available with the kind of talent worth crippling your salary cap room for. Before everyone writes off the Eagles because they don't have Randy Moss, let's see what happens with the possible trading of Lito and the draft, and get ready for an improved Eagles team in 2008. Improved enough to compete in the hyper-competitive NFC East? We shall see.

Our apologies...

William "Willie" Green, who the hell are you? With the exception of his woeful, vintage performance against Golden State the other night, the man has been largely on fire. He's shooting well, drawing more fouls, and, from possibly inaccurate accounts, is working hard with his staff to bridge the divide in the Democratic party in this tumultuous primary season.

For the year, Willie has his PPS all the way up at 1.11, which if it holds will easily be a career high. Now, before everyone gets out of hand with their "I told you so"'s, the man still cannot pass, defend, or rebound. He is not going to be a better pro the Andre Iguodala, like some famous moron said. But what he is doing for now- providing reliable offense- is extremely important as the Sixers make their run to get swept in the first round of the playoffs.

Sadly, with the Rise of Willie, someone else must take his place as the least-favorite Sixer. Rodney Carney, come on down. You can't shoot, rebound, pass, or stay healthy. Welcome.

I’m back.

Where was I? France. Little known fact- there is no internet access in France.

In an excellent, relief-inducing move by the Phils, Brett Myers has been named the starter for Opening Day 2008. It was almost a sure thing that he would be back in the rotation, but the vote of confidence and picking him to lead the rotation rather than Hamels is a great move.

But all is not well in Clearwater- Brad Lidge, the new closer, is unlikely to be ready to go on opening day unless he gets some of the blood from the cheerleader on Heroes. And the second option is Tom Gordon, a man who is in desperate need of bionic replacement parts for his ravaged arm. And last season's closer has already been named as a starter. But as I always say, I'll take a good starter over a great closer any day.

Also, I had a weird dream last night that the Phillies had A-Rod. Prophetic? I’d say 100% yes.

Who?

From Randy Miller's column today:

Dominique Brown is tall and skinny at 6-foot-5, 205. He bats and throws left, plays a mean right field and has an arm that scares baserunners. And best of all, this kid hits baseballs a long, long way.

I google'd "Dominique Brown" and an reference about Nicole Brown Simpson's sister. I assume he was talking about Dominic Brown, the Phillies minor league player.

Some 18 months later, the Phillies are dreaming about someday having their best 1-2 power punch ever if Howard sticks around and Brown lives up to his potential.
I assume Brown will play the whole season in A ball as he has a grand total of 411 at bats professionally. Assuming that he plays A ball this year, AA in '09, and AAA in '10, he would be ready to for the majors in '11. That will also be Howard's final year before he reaches free agency, assuming that the Phillies don't trade him before then. So this would be more of a fantasy "dream", like the Trix Rabbit has of finally getting his Trix.

The group is headed by Brown and includes former No. 1 pick Greg Golson, D'Arby Myers, Matt Spencer and 2007 Paul Owens winner Quinton Berry.

1. It is Quintin, not Quinton.

2. Of that group of five players, one of them, Golson, has played above A ball. I find it difficult to get excited about a bunch of 18 and 19 year old kids that haven't seen AA pitching, let alone succeeded against it.

I know writers have a lot of filler articles that they have to file during spring training. But this just seems like a story that Miller got after having some beers with one of the Phillies minor league development guys last night. The only one of these guys that might sniff the majors in the next three years is Golson and he is still a work in progress. It took Golson three years to get to AA and that is where he is going to start this season. His career OBP in the minors is .303, which is just atrocious.

But at least baseball is starting.

Hazing Time

Yes, it is time for the monthly post.

I had planned on trashing Phil Sheridan's Fantasyland column from this morning's Inquirer that suggested the Phillies lay down during their arbitration hearing with Ryan Howard.

But Keith Law beat me to the punch.

So instead, I will pick on the Daily News' new Phillies beat writer, David Murphy. I am certain that Murphy will be an upgrade over the DN's previous beat guy, Marcus Hayes, but he is off to a rough start. Apparently he has quite a hard on for batting averages. This is from today's spring training report regarding Pat Burrell:

Eight years into his career, it's still difficult to find the proper perspective through which to view the man who at one point was cast as a franchise's savior. On one hand are his 218 career home runs, fifth in Phillies history. By the end of the year, he'll likely move back Greg Luzinski (223) and Chuck Klein (243).

On the other hand are his .258 career average and numerous injuries.

Batting average, home runs. These are the only criteria used to judge Pat Burrell. What about his career .357 OBP or .482 SLG?

In 2002, the year before he signed a 6-year contract extension that will earn him $14 million this year, he hit .282 with 37 home runs and 116 RBI. The following year, those numbers plummeted to .209, 21 and 64.

Burrell had one awful year and it was five years ago. It is time to let it go.

Only once has his batting average improved in two straight seasons (from .209 to .257 to .281 from 2003-05). After hitting .281 with 32 home runs and 117 RBI in 2005, his batting average dropped to .258 in 2006 and .256 last year.

When David Murphy was young, he would open up a package of baseball cards and organize all his new cards by the player's batting averages. What is the difference between hitting .258 and .256? Last year for Burrell, it is one hit. One more hit and he would not have landed on the dreaded Murphy Sliding Batting Average List.

No one is expecting Pat Burrell to hit .300. We do expect him to get on base and hit home runs. Burrell's OPS the past three seasons have been .893, .890, and .902. While he may have his ups and downs throughout the season, at the end of the year his numbers always end up around the same place. There aren't too many teams that would turn down the idea of having a left fielder put up an OPS of .890 on a yearly basis.

"But what about his batting average?!?!"

Hopefully the learning curve is not a steep one for David Murphy.

Mo Money Mo Problems

What is $3 million between friends?

Myself and the rest of my friends in The Millionaire Club may laugh at that figure, but it may be the monetary difference that sends Ryan Howard and the Phillies to an arbitrator to determine his 2008 contract. Howard feels that he should be paid $10 million and the Phillies think his worth is $7 million (I like how they rounded to the closest million). It is always possible that the two sides come to an agreement before it reaches arbitration, but I think the $3 million gap is not going to be bridged very easily.

Arbitration awards are based on both performance and service time. To put Howard's demands into perspective, Alfonso Soriano is the only player in the history of baseball to be awarded $10 million in arbitration and he received that before his sixth year in the league, his last before becoming a free agent. Howard is classified in the "Super Two" category for players that have not had three full service years in MLB, but fulfill other playing time categories to qualify for salary arbitration. Needless to say, no player has ever received $10 million in their first year in arbitration.

Todd Zolecki has done a great job so far covering this issue, both in print and at his blog. He speculates that Howard's contract demands will be in excess of the 7 year, $100 million contract that Albert Pujols signed.

This issue seems have to split the fanbase into two camps; one thinks that the Phillies are being smart for not extending Howard immediately and the other shouting "C'mon, stop bein' so cheap and pay the man".

I fall firmly in line with those that feel the Phillies are doing the correct thing in not handing over the keys to the vault to Howard at this time. Why? Let me count the ways.

1. When a team and a player come to an agreement for a long-term contract before the player reaches free agency, it usually is a win-win for both parties. The team is able to buy the player out of his first year or two of free agency at a discount, as compared to what he would possibly get on the open market, and the player gets the security of a long-term, guaranteed contract. Ryan Howard is a unique situation because he will be 27 when the season begins and the Phillies have him under control for the next four seasons, or until after the 2011 season. When Pujols got his contract, he was 24 years old and three years away away from free agency. By giving him a four year contract, the Cardinals bought Pujols out of his first four years of free agency and locked him up until age 31, through his assumed peak years. The Phillies already have Howard under their control through age 31 without giving him a contract extension.

2. According to Baseball Reference's most comparable players to Ryan Howard at age 27, two of them also had very similar body types to Howard, Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn. Let's look at both guy's OPS+ after age 26:

Fielder
26: 167
27: 133
28: 117
29: 124
30: 113
31: 111
32: 108
33: 101
34: 86

Vaughn
26: 146
27: 144
28: 150
29: 152
30: 153
31: 119
32: 115
33: 113
35: 73

As can be seen from above, both guys saw their production dip tremendously at one point, Fielder at age 28 and Vaughn at age 31, and never saw it return to its previous levels. So while Howard has been tremendous the last two years, there should be some trepidation on the Phillies' part to give him to long of a contract extension.

Right now, I think the Phillies should try to get him to sign for three years at 30 million with the contract breaking out as $8.5 million in 2008, $10.0 in 2009, and $11.5 million in 2010. I think that is a win-win for both sides. And then in 2011, we can have all out war.

Simple Math

I understand that NFL coaches are paid to devise plays and motivate their players and not for their math skills. But one would think that a team could hire a math nerd to sit on the sidelines and tell them when to kick an extra point and when to go for a two point conversion, as opposed to relying on former NFL players to make these decision.

Case in point:

In the fourth quarter of last night's Steelers/Jaguars game, the Steelers scored a touchdown with 10:25 left in the game to cut the Jaguars lead to 28-23. Instead of kicking the extra point and making it a four point game, the Steelers decided to go for two. With the amount of scoring that had already occurred in the game as well as the fact that there was over ten minutes left on the clock, I would have kicked the extra point and tried to hold the Jaguars to a field goal for the rest of the game. The two point conversion is successful around 40-50 percent of the time (I don't knows the exact number for 2007). The Steelers wanted to make it a three point game, went for two, and got it on a great catch and throw from Roethlisberger to Ward.

But hold on a second, there was holding on the play which meant the down would have to be re-played and the ball would be spotted at the 12. At this point, the conversion rate probably falls down to 10-20% and it is an automatic to kick the extra point, try to hold the Jaguars to three points for the rest of the game and score a touchdown to tie the score.

Unfortunately for Steelers fans, Mike Tomlin does not believe in "probabilities". He thought it was still a good decision to go for two from the 12 yard line and it didn't pan out, leaving the score 28-23 in the Jaguars favor. The Steelers scored another touchdown, putting them in the lead 29-28, went for two again and it failed. Jaguars marched down the field on their last drive, kicked a field goal and won the game.

This was a simple math problem that the Steelers' coaching staff failed atrociously.