Myths by Raul

There are numerous people in the Philadelphia area who were overjoyed at the news of the Phillies signing Raul Ibanez, meaning the door has shut on the Pat Burrell era. I have issues with the signing, particularly the general idea of signing a 37 year old to a three year contract. That said, I think he will be an adequate replacement for Burrell in 2009.

That said, I strongly disagree with a lot of the hyperbole that has been thrown out by those who support the Ibanez deal. Such as......

Myth #1 - Raul Ibanez is a better hitter against left-handed pitching than Pat Burrell is.

In 2008, Ibanez had a career year hitting against left handers, putting up an OPS of .866. But every other year prior to '08, Ibanez had never even cracked .800 OPS against lefties. For his career, Ibanez is .268/.322/.411 against lefties. I would not be as concerned about these numbers if every lefthander over the age of 14 had not already figured out how to pitch to Ryan Howard.

Myth #2 - Raul Ibanez is a better hitter than Pat Burrell

If the year was 1983 and all we had were the back of baseball cards to argue with, then I would agree that with this Myth. But it isn't 1983, and only dopes use batting average and RBI to measure a hitter's production. In the last three years, Burrell has had an OPS+ of 122, 127, and 125. Ibanez has had OPS+ of 125, 121, 124. That is about as close as you can get in comparing two players over a three season span.

Myth #3 - Raul Ibanez is more consistent than Pat Burrell

I guess this comes down to your definition of consistency. People always would dwell on Burrell's hot and cold streaks, but just ignore the months where he put up numbers similar to his career stats. In 2008, both Burrell and Ibanez had two months with OPS under .800 and one month over 1.100. Same in 2007. Both players typically put up the same numbers on an annual basis. That is my definition of consistency.

Myth #4 - Raul Ibanez is less likely to decline than Pat Burrell

I am not a doctor and I haven't seen their medical records. But I have a difficult time believing that a 37 year old baseball player playing everyday does not present an injury risk, regardless of what great shape he is in. Getting old sucks.

Myth #5 - Losing a first round draft pick is not a big deal

This is an insane idea. And not only will the Phillies forfeit their first round pick by signing Ibanez, they also will not receive any compensation picks for Burrell because they did not offer him arbitration. Unless the Phillies plan on using that money to spend over slot for their additional picks, losing a first round draft pick is never a good idea.

I'm tired of typing. Type to listen to Barney Frank mumble and rumble. Welcome back us.

Sabreboy gets a response from Marcus Hayes

Here is his reply email followed by my rebuttal to his statements. (Pictured here- the Phillie Phanatic obviously preparing to eat a baby. I couldn't find a pic of Mr. Hayes.)
___________________________________________________________________________________
Get a grip, sabreboy.
Burrell is paid to produce runs, not get on base. Period. Any season with fewer than 110 RBI is a flat-out failure. He's not paid $13 million to walk. He misses strikes, he slumps, he tries to hit home runs. He is mediocre, at best, at the job to which he is assigned.
Soriano is overrated. Carlos Lee is an RBI machine. I don't know what your problem is with Ramirez, who is arguably the best offensive 3B in the NL since 2003.
OBP and OPS are geek numbers, especially for run-producers. I'd rather have my 3-4-5 guys drive the best strike they see rather than wait for the perfect pitch and jog down the baseline.
Sabremetrics are the bastion of wannabes who never could quite figure out which hand the mitt went on, a false industry created and fueled by people whose association with the game always will be vicarious, and, frankly, pathetic.
Offensively, scoring runs and driving runs in matter in baseball. Everything else follows.
That's it.
Ask any player.
_____________________________________________________________________________________

We're both busy people so I'll make this quick. I'm not expecting a reply, so I'll say now that this was a fun little exchange.

"Any season with fewer than 110 RBI is a flat-out failure."

The oft-loathed (not by me) Bobby Abreu may end up with 110 RBI this year; do you think he's having a better season than Derek Jeter?

Stan Musial averaged 104 RBI per 162 games played for his career, which is coincidentally the same as Pat Burrell averages. Obviously I don't think Burrell is as good as Musial, but your statement is totally false.

"He's not paid $13 million to walk."

Hey, I wish he could hit 45 home runs a year too. But he can't. So why fault him for not being something he'll never be? What he is is a player who is excellent at not making outs. While that alone is not worth $13 million, it's a great attribute to have.

"He misses strikes, he slumps, he tries to hit home runs"

Are you talking about Ryan Howard? He's the guy who has 147 K's in 104 games. Yet I'd hardly say he's having a bad year.

"Carlos Lee is an RBI machine"

He does get quite a few RBI, but since RBI is a stat dependent on so many other factors, I tend to not care.

"I don't know what your problem is with Ramirez, who is arguably the best offensive 3B in the NL since 2003."

I agree with this, since Miguel Cabrera played in the outfield for a few seasons. My point was that Ramirez is not a much better batter than Burrell.

"I'd rather have my 3-4-5 guys drive the best strike they see rather than wait for the perfect pitch and jog down the baseline."

Mike Schmidt made an okay career out of waiting for the perfect pitch. But since he didn't have many 110+ RBI seasons (just 5 in 18 seasons), you likely think he was overrated.

"Sabremetrics are the bastion of wannabes who never could quite figure out which hand the mitt went on, a false industry created and fueled by people whose association with the game always will be vicarious, and, frankly, pathetic."

Of course you realize many people say the same about sports writing.

Have you considered that sabermetrics aren't designed to ruin the game but to enhance the understanding of it? Sabermetrics and the traditional modes of scouting can live together in analytic harmony. And claiming that sabermetric stats are bunk because of the people who created them is like claiming TV is a worthless invention because Philo Farnsworth was a farmer, not a scientist.

The anti-intellectualism demonstrated regularly by you and most of your writing peers, refusing to even consider why new ways of thinking about baseball are appropriate, contributes to your ever-quickening slide into obsolescence. Enjoy.

"Offensively, scoring runs and driving runs in matter in baseball. Everything else follows."

According to your logic (or complete lack of it) the Phillies lead the NL in runs scored because they lead the league in RBI. Do you see why that is crazy?

And "everything else follows" is completely wrong. Stats like OBP, OPS, VORP, and WARP help explain, better than stats like batting average and RBI, why the players on teams like the Phillies create a lot of runs. RBI and Runs Scored follow.

"Ask any player."

Right, because players are the only authority on their respective sports. That's why so many of them make such great GM's when they leave the game.

Why do I bother?

The following is an email I just wrote to Marcus Hayes of the Daily News immediately after reading this article-

I just read your article from yesterday. After last night's game, Pat Burrell has a .417 on-base percentage. Why did you leave his OBP (which was .411 at the time) out of your article? This will also, in all likelihood, be his third consecutive season having an OBP of .388 or higher and an OPS of .890 or higher, which puts him in some elite company. Why did you not mention this? You're a smart man- you can't honestly believe these numbers mean nothing. And it's not like I'm mentioning his WARP or VORP or RC/27. Just OBP and OPS. These are hardly "super-nerdy" metrics. In fact, according to the "super-nerdy" metrics, which are worthless except for the tiny little fact that they are easily the best tools we have for evaluating player performance, 2007 is his best offensive season since 2002.

The Phillies still have the best offense in the NL, and that's with the missing Chase Utley and the slumping Ryan Howard (why did you not bash him?). And a large part of their awesome run production is Pat Burrell. Sure, he makes too much money for what he brings to the table. Most players in his salary bracket do- Pat's numbers are just as good as and often better than guys like Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, and Aramis Ramirez. Would you bash those guys if they were Phillies? I doubt it, since usually their old-style statistics give them the outward appearance of being better than Burrell. But if you're willing to take time to understand why they matter, new ways of thinking can prove why a man like Pat Burrell is more important to the Phillies' success than anyone credits him for.

Pat Must Go- The Website

http://www.patmustgo.com/index.html

The above link is to a website where you can pledge money toward buying out Pat Burrell's contract so the Phillies can dump him. This is the kind of Phillies fans' behavior I've learned to expect and yet will never understand.

It's no secret that Pat Burrell, his recent hot streak aside, is loathed by most Phillies fans for his apparent underachieving. As I've said before, I've spent way too much time and energy defending the guy. But here we go again-

1. Pat Burrell is an above average offensive player- almost every season. His one truly bad year was 2003- 4 YEARS AGO. Get over it, people. His past 3 seasons (including this one) have all been very good, and are his best other than his monster 2002.

2. The man is never going to hit 45 home runs a year, and yes he's going to strike out like he gets a free large Capogiro gelati for each one. But he also gets on base a ton, meaning he's very good at the important act of not making outs, and he actually does have very good power.

3. Even though he appears to be the laziest left fielder in baseball, he is perfectly average at the position (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/burrepa01.php). The man is just slow; but he's trying his damnedest.

4. The claim of Burrell not being able to hit with RISP is BS. Over his career, he bats almost the same with RISP as without- just like almost ALL players. Clutch hitting is, for the most part, a myth- do a Google search and learn.

Yes, he is probably overpaid for the good offense and mediocre defense he provides, as are many, many major league players. He makes around the same as guys like Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Lee, and over the past 3 years has had a similar RC/27 to all 3 of them. And sadly if Pat Burrell was any of those 3 men, Phillies fans would be overjoyed to have him on the team. But since here he's the demon hellspawn Pat Burrell, he's destined to suffer the insults of people who refuse to accept the truth- that Pat's okay.

Your July National League Player of the Month

Well last night broke like a five year streak of Phillies beating the Cubs when I had seen them duke it out at Wrigley. It could because Adam Eaton stinks, but I will blame it on the fact that I couldn't have my full attention on the game due to the amount of inanity I had to suffer through between pitches.

Anyways, his fielding problems last night aside, one Phillie should have just about wrapped up the NL Player of the month award. His stats and their ranking in the NL in July.

.435 BA (2nd)
6 HR (10th)
22 RBI (6th)
.567 OBP (1st by 67 points)
.768 SLG (2nd)
1.332 OPS (1st by 60 points)

In the last month, Burrell has seen his BA rise 57 points, his OBP rise 51 points, and his SLG rise 98 points. His .872 OPS for the season ranks 24th in the NL Overall and 9th amongst NL Outfielders (ahead of both Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano). But it will only take one 0-fer for the fans to get back on him. Yayyyyy.

Also, Adam Eaton stinks.

How bad does he stink?

His 5.87 ERA ranks him last in the NL among. Below even Kip Wells, who should not be in baseball. He ranks 43rd out of 49 NL pitchers in WHIP. After the game last night, even Jose Contreras commented that Eaton stinks on ice.

And they still have two more years with him. Nice job Pat Gillick. Way to not only set the market price for starting pitching last year but also manage to walk away with the worst free agent pitcher on the market. That's Billy King-esque.

I Cry Fudge

I don't like being wrong when it comes to baseball. But whenever you have opinions on a sport that involve predictions on unknown outcomes, you are going to be wrong once in awhile. But what I really hate is the combination of being wrong on a subject and ignorant fools being right. And in the case of one Pat Burrell, that is starting to look like it is the case.

After a sizzling start to the season, Burrell has been in an atrocious slump since around April 25. In May he hit .179/.360/.410. For the season, his batting average is .225 and his slugging percentage is an ungodly .388. Yes his OBP is still at .388, which leads the team, but this team needs him to have an OPS of .880 if he is going to hit out of the five hole. If it didn't completely defy conventional wisdom, I would actually like to see him hit ahead of Utley and Howard in the 2 hole. Because on nights that Helms/Barajas are hitting behind him, him being on base does not matter that much. In the field, he is what he is: a below average fielder with little mobility due to his previous injuries.

Should Burrell be traded? Well, I don't think this current Phillies team is going to make the playoffs and Burrell is signifcantly overpaid, so I definitely would not be opposed to it. It is not like the Abreu situation, where they could get more for him if they waited til the offseason. Unless Old Man Gillick is lying, the trade market for Pat Burrell is not exactly bullish. If they can find a team that is willing to take on the remainder of his contract, that would be enough for me.

Dennis Deitch from the Delaware County Daily Times had this to say about the #5 spot in the lineup:

The big question is, why? Why does Burrell continue to hit fifth? There would seem to be three players who could be considered as replacements for Burrell in that spot - Aaron Rowand, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino.

Rowand and Rollins have a few notable statistics on their side - for instance, that their slugging percentages (.495 and .496) are nearly 100 points better than Burrell's. While Victorino doesn't have a high slugging percentage (.378), he does have speed, and it would seem that putting a speedy player behind Howard in the order wouldn't be such a bad thing, since there were at least 58 instances last season where the guy hitting behind Howard came to the plate with the bases empty and thus would have an opportunity to steal a base if he reached first.

Rowand's SLG in May: .396
Rollins' SLG in May: .400

Both of which were lower than Burrell's bad SLG in May.

But the comment about Victorino is just mind blowing. You want to put a "speedy" hitter behind Howard because the object is to steal a base if no one is on? Victorino has already had over 120 at bats this year with the bases empty (God Jimmy Rollins stinks). So if you want Victorino to be up with the bases empty, why would you move him from his current position in the order?

Thank You ESPN

Should I watch Jericho or the Phillies on ESPN? Great question. Fortunately, ESPN made my decision very easy by assigning Chris Berman and Steve Phillips to announce the game. I don't think it would be possible for ESPN to pair two individuals whose baseball acumen I respect less. It is like some executives from ESPN were out at the Bristol Chili's, tossing back a few Bud Lites, and someone threw out the question, "What is the worst possible pairing we could produce for a Wednesday night baseball game". After a few guys threw out some suggestions, one of the younger guys shouted out "Berman and Phillips!" and everyone else around the table just nodded in agreement. Instead of keeping the joke to themselves, they decided to share it with the rest of the country.

The game itself wasn't worth watching. Garcia wasn't very good. The lineup wasn't very good. Howard struck out three times and hit a three run home run. Burrell's slide continued. Rollins continues his impressive streak of not walking. Barajas' two game climb to the HOF was stalled by an 0-4 tonight. And Wes Helms still stinks. At least Geoff Geary pitched well.

Now they fly to San Francisco tonight to face the Giants tomorrow. Adam Eaton against Matt Cain. Mismatch would be an understatement for this pairing. Blugh.

Pat Burrell is good for you, Phillies fans

As far as I can tell, people have been down on Pat Burrell since he threw up on the birthday cake at his friend Steven Chalmers' third birthday party. Since then he has been booed mercilessly anytime he plays baseball, goes food shopping, or hides out in the woods to avoid being booed.

I've spent a good portion of time defending Burrell for the past 2 or 3 years. Not just because he boldly refuses to shave or wax his chest, but also because he's just not as bad as most Phillies fans think he is. In the early going this season, as painful as it has been for the team, Burrell has done more than anyone expected. He has a 1.061 OPS and has been almost competent in the field. But fans are just waiting for him to return to his "crappy" persona, the overpaid one they believe is part of a vast worldwide conspiracy to further ruin the Phillies with walks and the music of Ronnie James Dio (I am sad he's changed his at-bat music).

So what happens if Burrell reverts to his form from previous seasons (except 2003- yeech)? Well, as much as it may pain people to read this, the Phillies will still have an above-average offensive player on their hands. The horror! I can be persuaded that Burrell is vastly overpaid for his production, but so are quite a few professional athletes- like all of them. For a more team specific example than "all of them", look at Jimmy Rollins, a player I like a great deal. For the $8 million he'll make this season to hit leadoff and play SS, chances are the Phils will get a .330-.340 OBP out of him, a good amount of HR's, good D, and a bunch of SB's. Burrell, although not fearsome on the base paths (unless falling down is fearsome) or with the leather like Rollins, will make up for that with his OBP and power production, and in fact will most likely contribute more runs created than Rollins will this year. Yet if Burrell made $8mil a year, everyone would still cry that he makes too much, whereas Rollins is considered to be a fairly priced talent. Sure, $13 million is a lot to pay for an .890 OPS, but I'll be damned if there aren't a whole bunch of worse contracts out there. I'm sure someone is still paying Albert Belle to this day, and he hasn't been in the league since 2000.

Of course, it's not just about numbers, especially in Philly (or Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Milwaukee, Boston, New York, etc.). People love Rollins because he told the world that the Phillies are the team to beat in the NL East, which they are proving to be correct in the opposite way of what Jimmy meant. But fans hate Burrell because he's overpaid (can't stress that enough), lacks "passion" (which is really a bigger problem for marriages than baseball players), and their girlfriends think he has a nice ass. For his sake, hopefully Pat Burrell hits 49 homers this season, vows to fight the entire Mets lineup in a steel cage, and gets cottage cheese ass so bad it's visible through his pants. Then maybe he'll finally get the acceptance that professional athletes so desperately crave according to fans, pundits, and other people who don't even know professional athletes.