Major Tom, this is Ground Control. Stop singing and return to base immediately.

Over the last six weeks or so, Jim and I have received a decent amount of correspondence from our rapid teenage girl fanbase (note to the authorities: all emails with a picture are deleted immediately so there is no reason to look at all the other porn on our computers on one of your fishing expeditions) asking us what is up with the lack of updates to the site. For instance, Kara, 14 from Drexel Hill, wrote the following:

Hey guyz? Whtzup?!?! When willz u2 rite a new post? W/B/S. Kara

Well Kara, we do appreciate your concern, but sometimes other aspects of our lives receive more priority than this website. I can't speak for Jim, but I have been so caught up in the battle to determine Zimbabwe's next President that I have pretty much been ignoring sports completely. But I do think I can take a quick break from going over the latest poll data from Masvingo to answer a few questions about the Phillies. First though, I must cease laughing at "heady" David Eckstein getting picked off first in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game with no outs and Alex Rios about to get on base with a walk.

Is Ryan Howard going to turn it around or will he break his own strike out record?

Yes and yes. Howard's current BABIP is .259, which is significantly less than his three year average of .346 from '05-'07. Unless managers have figured out exactly where to play all seven guys in the field when Howard is at bat, the easiest explanation to the drop in BABIP is simply luck. For whatever reason, when Howard puts the ball in play, it is not finding the holes that it did the past three seasons. This number will go up or I'm not the next coach of the Chicago Bulls. His lack of walks is still concerning to me (Howard has two eight game streaks without taking a walk, he had zero such streaks in '07), I think he will start getting more hits in the next few months.

As far as the strikeouts go, Ryan Howard is always going to swing and miss at a lot of baseballs. If he gets ten at bats in a game, which I am predicting will happen August 29 at Wrigley and the Phils will win 32-28, Howard will strike out three times. The strike outs are the necessary evil that come with his insane power. People who suggest that he should choke up or just try to make contact probably need to go reassure their son that even if he isn't the best player on the team, he is still loved, because I'm sure he has his doubts.

Are there any players out there that the Phillies could trade for?

Probably, but it is still very early. I think a big prize will be Brian Fuentes of the Rockies, who is having another great year in that awful ballpark (ERA+ of 184). He only makes $5 million this year and will be a free agent at the end of this season. He would be a great addition to the back of the Phillies bullpen, but I don't know if the Rockies would be willing to take back a lot of guys in A ball because that is all the Phillies can afford to trade.

What can save the Mets season?

Hopefully nothing. Their current situation is much too entertaining for it to stop.

If the season ended on June 9, would Chase Utley be the MVP?

No. But if the baseball season ended on June 9, I think there would be much more important topics to talk about. Like, who is going to take my dollar coins in return for hot dogs later this summer?

Has Pedro Feliz won you over yet?

I am doing my best to ignore how awful he is as a hitter and just focus on the stability that he adds in the field. He does have a rocket for an arm and makes most of the plays he has to. But he is going to end the season with an OPS+ around 80-85 and hopefully the human out machine doesn't hurt them in the playoffs.

Hungry?

Yes. Meeting over.

Mo Money Mo Problems

What is $3 million between friends?

Myself and the rest of my friends in The Millionaire Club may laugh at that figure, but it may be the monetary difference that sends Ryan Howard and the Phillies to an arbitrator to determine his 2008 contract. Howard feels that he should be paid $10 million and the Phillies think his worth is $7 million (I like how they rounded to the closest million). It is always possible that the two sides come to an agreement before it reaches arbitration, but I think the $3 million gap is not going to be bridged very easily.

Arbitration awards are based on both performance and service time. To put Howard's demands into perspective, Alfonso Soriano is the only player in the history of baseball to be awarded $10 million in arbitration and he received that before his sixth year in the league, his last before becoming a free agent. Howard is classified in the "Super Two" category for players that have not had three full service years in MLB, but fulfill other playing time categories to qualify for salary arbitration. Needless to say, no player has ever received $10 million in their first year in arbitration.

Todd Zolecki has done a great job so far covering this issue, both in print and at his blog. He speculates that Howard's contract demands will be in excess of the 7 year, $100 million contract that Albert Pujols signed.

This issue seems have to split the fanbase into two camps; one thinks that the Phillies are being smart for not extending Howard immediately and the other shouting "C'mon, stop bein' so cheap and pay the man".

I fall firmly in line with those that feel the Phillies are doing the correct thing in not handing over the keys to the vault to Howard at this time. Why? Let me count the ways.

1. When a team and a player come to an agreement for a long-term contract before the player reaches free agency, it usually is a win-win for both parties. The team is able to buy the player out of his first year or two of free agency at a discount, as compared to what he would possibly get on the open market, and the player gets the security of a long-term, guaranteed contract. Ryan Howard is a unique situation because he will be 27 when the season begins and the Phillies have him under control for the next four seasons, or until after the 2011 season. When Pujols got his contract, he was 24 years old and three years away away from free agency. By giving him a four year contract, the Cardinals bought Pujols out of his first four years of free agency and locked him up until age 31, through his assumed peak years. The Phillies already have Howard under their control through age 31 without giving him a contract extension.

2. According to Baseball Reference's most comparable players to Ryan Howard at age 27, two of them also had very similar body types to Howard, Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn. Let's look at both guy's OPS+ after age 26:

Fielder
26: 167
27: 133
28: 117
29: 124
30: 113
31: 111
32: 108
33: 101
34: 86

Vaughn
26: 146
27: 144
28: 150
29: 152
30: 153
31: 119
32: 115
33: 113
35: 73

As can be seen from above, both guys saw their production dip tremendously at one point, Fielder at age 28 and Vaughn at age 31, and never saw it return to its previous levels. So while Howard has been tremendous the last two years, there should be some trepidation on the Phillies' part to give him to long of a contract extension.

Right now, I think the Phillies should try to get him to sign for three years at 30 million with the contract breaking out as $8.5 million in 2008, $10.0 in 2009, and $11.5 million in 2010. I think that is a win-win for both sides. And then in 2011, we can have all out war.

Game Day

Unfortunately, I must leave my guardpost and visit the outside world, which means I have to cut this riveting analysis short. Pat Burrell is my hero.

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I don't think Fabio Castro is going to make it as a major league pitcher. But there is always professional poker.

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Good news: Castro has a one hitter through three. Bad news: It has taken him 53 pitches to get there, 29 of which have been balls.

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Castro walks the bases loaded, but fortunately he walked them for the pitcher. It only took 6 pitches to get Billingsley to strike out. Through two innings, Castro has struck out three, walked three, and given up no hits. Thrown 42 pitches, 22 of which have been balls.

I ask you, Cole Who?

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I would compare Fabio Castro's control to Lindsay Lohan's. They're both a bit wild. He may walk ten batters today.

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I don't have the sound on, so maybe there was a better explanation, but Sarge's Key to the Game is "By winning series, you get into the postseason"

1. That isn't a key to the game. Winning the series is a goal.

2. I don't know what that sentence means.

I'm hoping the Dodgers are hung over today.

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Will Russell Branyan put a ball into play?

Will Ryan Howard continue his Russell Branyan impersonation?

The long awaited return of Fabio Castro to Philadelphia.

All this and more on today's Game Day Blog of the Phillies-Dodgers matchup.

This is an Offense

To follow up on last week, the Phillies are now averaging an astounding 5.50 runs per game. The Marlins, who are still second in runs per game, are avergaing 4.89 runs per game. For the mathematically inclined, the Phillies are leading every team in the NL by over 0.6 runs per game. That is quite a number.

And because they have been getting halfway decent pitching of late, they are winning more than they are losing.

These next four games are a big test as they face the Cubs who have the best rotation in the NL that isn't fronted by Jake Peavy. Fortunately they don't have to face Carlos Zambrano, but they can't avoid Rich Hill and Ted Lily. If there is any "flaw" with the current Phillies is that they occasionally struggle against left handers. They are hitting right handers with the same success, but it is much more impressive when compared to the rest of the league.

Injuries continue to take their toll. As soon as they got Howard back, Myers goes on the DL. Myers and Gordon come back and Utley breaks his hand and now Madson hurts his arm. Madson has been really good the last two months, especially in July. Hopefully they can weather the storm. If not, we can all just blame Pat Gillick. It is what I like to do.

Dennis Deitch's Dirty Fantasies

This is from Dennis Deitch's attempt at an article from the Daily Times. Apparently he is not satisfied with Jack McCaffery being the lead buffoon at the Daily Times.

A glimpse into the future: (A column from the Delaware County Daily Times, April 11, 2018, edition.)

You know what would be nice? Maybe a column for April 11, 2007 that could shed some insight on the current Phillies. But that would require actual work. So let's fill up half of the day's work with a piece of fiction.

NEW YORK -- You could swear that you saw the gray hair sprout from Ryan Howard’s scalp as he sat at his locker. The big first baseman showed that he still has something left in his 38-year-old body Tuesday when he hit homer No. 548 of his impressive career, tying Mike Schmidt for the most in Phillies history.

This would require Howard to average about 47 home runs a year for the next ten year. Obviously there is no one to compare Howard to by age, who had their first full season in MLB at age 26 and hit 58 home runs. But here is the list of players to average 47 home runs over a ten year span: Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa. And to say that they might have had a little help is an understatement. I don't think Mike Schmidt has anything to worry about from Ryan Howard.

Instead, the three-run lead the momentous home run provided Kyle Drabek went up in smoke as the veteran right-hander gave up a seventh-inning, bases-clearing triple to Jose Reyes in the Phillies’ 6-4 loss to the Mets at Google Park.

Get it? Google Park? Comedy and sportswriting. What a combination.

And so, Groundhog Day continues to arrive in April for the Phillies. The loss drops them to 1-6, the ninth time in the last 15 years that they have lost six of seven games to open the baseball season.

Does it matter how they finished in any of those 11 years of the future? Of course not. All that Dennis Deitch apparently cares about are the first seven games of the year.

This could be the final year Howard will be sent through this springtime ringer. He is in the final year of the 10-year, $200 million contract he signed following his second MVP season in 2008. Since then he has won two more MVP trophies, but that matters little when you have won exactly zero postseason games.

So now is where we get to Dennis Deitch predicting that the Phillies will win zero postseason games in the next ten years. IN THE NEXT TEN YEARS. Why is this even in a newspaper, albeit a suburban rag? Has Dennis Deitch discovered time travel? If so, I feel like this might be a bigger story than any Phillies beat articles he writes.

Maybe the Phillies will trade him to an American League team seeking a designated hitter down the stretch; maybe he’ll sign with an A.L. next year; maybe he’ll make a dignified exit and begin his inevitable, minimal, five-year waiting period for Cooperstown.

Still, the impending end of his no-October prison sentence in Philadelphia doesn’t soothe at the moment.

You can see the weight of these fruitless Aprils on Howard. They have weighed on his broad shoulders. No longer does he stand at his locker to go over the details; now he remains in his chair, weary from the repetitive nature that these poor starts have brought to his baseball career.

We have entered into the world of science fiction. The rest of the article is more garbage about things five to ten years into the future.

As Jim just wrote, Philadelphia sports writing is completely terrible. Imagine if a national political writer assigned to the campaign trail wrote an article talking about the country in ten years by just assigning future outcomes to political races. He would probably be fired. But apparently the Daily Times encourages its writers to waste both paper and people's time.