I understand that NFL coaches are paid to devise plays and motivate their players and not for their math skills. But one would think that a team could hire a math nerd to sit on the sidelines and tell them when to kick an extra point and when to go for a two point conversion, as opposed to relying on former NFL players to make these decision.
Case in point:
In the fourth quarter of last night's Steelers/Jaguars game, the Steelers scored a touchdown with 10:25 left in the game to cut the Jaguars lead to 28-23. Instead of kicking the extra point and making it a four point game, the Steelers decided to go for two. With the amount of scoring that had already occurred in the game as well as the fact that there was over ten minutes left on the clock, I would have kicked the extra point and tried to hold the Jaguars to a field goal for the rest of the game. The two point conversion is successful around 40-50 percent of the time (I don't knows the exact number for 2007). The Steelers wanted to make it a three point game, went for two, and got it on a great catch and throw from Roethlisberger to Ward.
But hold on a second, there was holding on the play which meant the down would have to be re-played and the ball would be spotted at the 12. At this point, the conversion rate probably falls down to 10-20% and it is an automatic to kick the extra point, try to hold the Jaguars to three points for the rest of the game and score a touchdown to tie the score.
Unfortunately for Steelers fans, Mike Tomlin does not believe in "probabilities". He thought it was still a good decision to go for two from the 12 yard line and it didn't pan out, leaving the score 28-23 in the Jaguars favor. The Steelers scored another touchdown, putting them in the lead 29-28, went for two again and it failed. Jaguars marched down the field on their last drive, kicked a field goal and won the game.
This was a simple math problem that the Steelers' coaching staff failed atrociously.
Case in point:
In the fourth quarter of last night's Steelers/Jaguars game, the Steelers scored a touchdown with 10:25 left in the game to cut the Jaguars lead to 28-23. Instead of kicking the extra point and making it a four point game, the Steelers decided to go for two. With the amount of scoring that had already occurred in the game as well as the fact that there was over ten minutes left on the clock, I would have kicked the extra point and tried to hold the Jaguars to a field goal for the rest of the game. The two point conversion is successful around 40-50 percent of the time (I don't knows the exact number for 2007). The Steelers wanted to make it a three point game, went for two, and got it on a great catch and throw from Roethlisberger to Ward.
But hold on a second, there was holding on the play which meant the down would have to be re-played and the ball would be spotted at the 12. At this point, the conversion rate probably falls down to 10-20% and it is an automatic to kick the extra point, try to hold the Jaguars to three points for the rest of the game and score a touchdown to tie the score.
Unfortunately for Steelers fans, Mike Tomlin does not believe in "probabilities". He thought it was still a good decision to go for two from the 12 yard line and it didn't pan out, leaving the score 28-23 in the Jaguars favor. The Steelers scored another touchdown, putting them in the lead 29-28, went for two again and it failed. Jaguars marched down the field on their last drive, kicked a field goal and won the game.
This was a simple math problem that the Steelers' coaching staff failed atrociously.
