In case you are a person that ignores mainstream media, underground media, alternative media, and the streets of Media and rely solely on the semi-annual updates of this blog for your Phillies news, let me be the one to tell you: Ryan Howard just robbed Citizen's Bank. The Phillies decided to give him a 5 year contract extension (note: Howard's current contract runs out after 2011) that is worth $125 Million and includes a $10 Million buyout after 2016.
Instead of getting my opinion on the contract, I called up my friends Point and Counterpoint to get their takes on the contract and engage them in a dialogue.
Point: Hey Cp, did you hear? The Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a 5 year deal. He's going to retire as a Phillie!
Counterpoint: And that's a good thing?
P: Ha, you're hilarious. Seriously, how is this contract a bad thing for the Phillies?
Cp: Well let's see. Ryan Howard will be 36 when this contract is over. They will be paying him $25 million a year in the last three years of the contract when he his performance will most likely be on the decline, possibly a steep one. Assuming their payroll is still around $125 million, the Phillies will allocating 20% of their budget for a first baseman on the bad side of 30.
P: That's it? But what about the homers.
Cp: You're right, he still hits homers. He'll most likely hit 40 plus home runs for the next few years and will reach 500 during the lifetime of the contract. But this isn't home run derby. His walk totals have gone down in the last four years, from 108 in 2006 to 75 in 2009. If you're hitting 40 home runs, it should be a piece of cake to get 100 BBs.
P: Eh, maybe, but he is still a feared hitter.
CP: Let's clarify that. Right handed pitchers fear him. The Alan Embrees of the world love seeing Howard step to the plate. He just can't hit left handed pitching any more. His performance has gone from good (.923 OPS in 2006) to average (.826 OPS in 2007) to bad (.746 OPS in 2008) to awful (.653 in 2009). This is an insanely scary trend, particularly as Howard ages and his bat speed slows down.
P: But the RIBBIES!!!
Cp: Have we gone back in time to 1986? The Phillies have the best offense in baseball. If he didn't drive in 120 runs a year, there would be something seriously wrong.
P: Won't it be great to see him retire as a Phillie?
Cp: I'm scared that by 2014, we'll all just want him to retire. Here are his Top 5 comparables at his age: Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn, Willie McCovey, and David Ortiz. Four of those guys didn't age well at all.
P: OK. So you don't like the contract.
Cp: You think?
P: What do you dislike more, the money or the years.
Cp: Both. Let's say the Phillies let Ryan Howard become a free agent in 2011. Does any team give him a contract even close to 5 years, $125 million? The Yankees have Texieria so they don't need a first baseman. The Red Sox will have figured out how to get Adrian Gonzalez by that point. The Cardinals will have to give a billion dollars to Pujols at the same time. So that leaves the Cubs, Dodgers, Mariners,and Angels as teams that would have the money to bid on Howard. Maybe Howard gets 4 years, $80 million from one of them, but no way he gets 5 years and $125 Million. AND THE PHILLIES WERE BIDDING AGAINST THEMSELVES.
P: But it's not your money.
Cp: You're right, it's not. But as a fan of the team, I don't want them spending this much of their payroll on a position that is easily replaceable when the money could be spent much smarter. This contract is going to be an albatross to the team in 2013-2016 and really kill their flexibility. You'd think they'd have learned from now.
P: I love you.
Well thanks guys for taking the time out of your busy lives and helping us out. We appreciate your service to this site and our country.
Showing posts with label Phillies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Phillies. Show all posts
Monday, April 26, 2010
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Myths by Raul
There are numerous people in the Philadelphia area who were overjoyed at the news of the Phillies signing Raul Ibanez, meaning the door has shut on the Pat Burrell era. I have issues with the signing, particularly the general idea of signing a 37 year old to a three year contract. That said, I think he will be an adequate replacement for Burrell in 2009.
That said, I strongly disagree with a lot of the hyperbole that has been thrown out by those who support the Ibanez deal. Such as......
Myth #1 - Raul Ibanez is a better hitter against left-handed pitching than Pat Burrell is.
In 2008, Ibanez had a career year hitting against left handers, putting up an OPS of .866. But every other year prior to '08, Ibanez had never even cracked .800 OPS against lefties. For his career, Ibanez is .268/.322/.411 against lefties. I would not be as concerned about these numbers if every lefthander over the age of 14 had not already figured out how to pitch to Ryan Howard.
Myth #2 - Raul Ibanez is a better hitter than Pat Burrell
If the year was 1983 and all we had were the back of baseball cards to argue with, then I would agree that with this Myth. But it isn't 1983, and only dopes use batting average and RBI to measure a hitter's production. In the last three years, Burrell has had an OPS+ of 122, 127, and 125. Ibanez has had OPS+ of 125, 121, 124. That is about as close as you can get in comparing two players over a three season span.
Myth #3 - Raul Ibanez is more consistent than Pat Burrell
I guess this comes down to your definition of consistency. People always would dwell on Burrell's hot and cold streaks, but just ignore the months where he put up numbers similar to his career stats. In 2008, both Burrell and Ibanez had two months with OPS under .800 and one month over 1.100. Same in 2007. Both players typically put up the same numbers on an annual basis. That is my definition of consistency.
Myth #4 - Raul Ibanez is less likely to decline than Pat Burrell
I am not a doctor and I haven't seen their medical records. But I have a difficult time believing that a 37 year old baseball player playing everyday does not present an injury risk, regardless of what great shape he is in. Getting old sucks.
Myth #5 - Losing a first round draft pick is not a big deal
This is an insane idea. And not only will the Phillies forfeit their first round pick by signing Ibanez, they also will not receive any compensation picks for Burrell because they did not offer him arbitration. Unless the Phillies plan on using that money to spend over slot for their additional picks, losing a first round draft pick is never a good idea.
I'm tired of typing. Type to listen to Barney Frank mumble and rumble. Welcome back us.
That said, I strongly disagree with a lot of the hyperbole that has been thrown out by those who support the Ibanez deal. Such as......
Myth #1 - Raul Ibanez is a better hitter against left-handed pitching than Pat Burrell is.
In 2008, Ibanez had a career year hitting against left handers, putting up an OPS of .866. But every other year prior to '08, Ibanez had never even cracked .800 OPS against lefties. For his career, Ibanez is .268/.322/.411 against lefties. I would not be as concerned about these numbers if every lefthander over the age of 14 had not already figured out how to pitch to Ryan Howard.
Myth #2 - Raul Ibanez is a better hitter than Pat Burrell
If the year was 1983 and all we had were the back of baseball cards to argue with, then I would agree that with this Myth. But it isn't 1983, and only dopes use batting average and RBI to measure a hitter's production. In the last three years, Burrell has had an OPS+ of 122, 127, and 125. Ibanez has had OPS+ of 125, 121, 124. That is about as close as you can get in comparing two players over a three season span.
Myth #3 - Raul Ibanez is more consistent than Pat Burrell
I guess this comes down to your definition of consistency. People always would dwell on Burrell's hot and cold streaks, but just ignore the months where he put up numbers similar to his career stats. In 2008, both Burrell and Ibanez had two months with OPS under .800 and one month over 1.100. Same in 2007. Both players typically put up the same numbers on an annual basis. That is my definition of consistency.
Myth #4 - Raul Ibanez is less likely to decline than Pat Burrell
I am not a doctor and I haven't seen their medical records. But I have a difficult time believing that a 37 year old baseball player playing everyday does not present an injury risk, regardless of what great shape he is in. Getting old sucks.
Myth #5 - Losing a first round draft pick is not a big deal
This is an insane idea. And not only will the Phillies forfeit their first round pick by signing Ibanez, they also will not receive any compensation picks for Burrell because they did not offer him arbitration. Unless the Phillies plan on using that money to spend over slot for their additional picks, losing a first round draft pick is never a good idea.
I'm tired of typing. Type to listen to Barney Frank mumble and rumble. Welcome back us.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
No Country for a Crappy Team Like Washington
Wow, how about that Brett Myers? With the exception of his first game back from his banishment to the minors, he has been outstanding. He now has a better ERA than Kyle Kendrick, which means everyone should be turning on Kyle very shortly. In other pitching pariah news, Adam Eaton gave up 6 runs in 6 IP last night in Reading because he sucks.
Speaking of turning on people, this whole Jimmy Rollins thing is ridiculous. A year ago, he was the most popular athlete in the city after his boasting about the Phils being the team to beat and his MVP-like performance. This year, he may as well be a DHS employee running a dog fighting ring out of a crack house. Part of that is his performance, which has been subpar. And his comment about Philly fans being front runners is still pissing people off even though it is TRUE. Just the fact that there was and still is such an uproar over his comments only serves to help prove what a bunch of over-emotional whiners and doomsayers Philly fans can be. And yes, I include myself in that.
Speaking of turning on people, this whole Jimmy Rollins thing is ridiculous. A year ago, he was the most popular athlete in the city after his boasting about the Phils being the team to beat and his MVP-like performance. This year, he may as well be a DHS employee running a dog fighting ring out of a crack house. Part of that is his performance, which has been subpar. And his comment about Philly fans being front runners is still pissing people off even though it is TRUE. Just the fact that there was and still is such an uproar over his comments only serves to help prove what a bunch of over-emotional whiners and doomsayers Philly fans can be. And yes, I include myself in that.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
You want it, you got it
Charlie Manuel on the Phillies offensive problems-
"I'm puzzled by it," he said. "I'm open for suggestions. I'll listen to what anybody's got to say. Fans. Cab drivers. President Bush. Anybody."
Well, Charles, here are a few suggestions for an offense that has gone .202/.303/.351 for the month of August-
1. Stop batting Jimmy Rollins leadoff.
In his last 8 games, Jimmy "Boo Berry" Rollins has an overall OBP of .167. His OBP for the season leading off the game or an inning is .243. It's hard to set the table well when the silverware is tarnished and the dinner plates are moldy and disgusting. The solution here is simple- try Shane Victorino. He has a career .347 OBP when leading off a game or inning, which is not great but is a huge improvement over Jimmy, who has never been great as a leadoff hitter; sadly, other than last season, he hasn't been great batting in any other slot either.
2. Ryan Howard should not be batting cleanup vs. lefties.
Even batting him 7th would be questionable this season. He has a career OPS vs. LHP of .744. This year, it's a robust .587. Lefties have learned that if they have any kind of decent breaking ball, Howard is an easy out.
3. The Geoff Jenkins experiment has failed.
He was supposed to be a RHP hitting specialist, but the only thing he has specialized in this year is making outs. He has a .724 OPS vs. RHP this year, and has been atrocious since August 6th, although he's hardly alone in that. Jayson Werth hits both lefties and righties better than Jenkins at this point.
4. Try batting Burrell 2nd, or 3rd or 4th (especially vs. LHP,) more often.
Ryan Howard isn't protecting him anymore, and there's no one below him in the order to drive him in when he walks, which is often. Look, Burrell is not going to be a 140 RBI a year guy. But he is a guy with a great knack for getting on base. Use that to your advantage rather than watching the Jenkins/Feliz/Bruntlett/Coste/Ruiz/Dobbs casserole continually struggle to get him home.
5. Get on their asses.
Look, there is something seriously wrong here. No sane, enlightened person would have believed that this team would rank 5th in ERA and 4th in runs per game at August 19th, but here they are. You're the manager Charlie. Act like it.
Here are starting lineups Charlie should consider. They may seem a little wild, but hopefully they are better than President Bush's suggestions-
vs. RHP
1. Victorino
2. Burrell
3. Utley
4. Howard
5. Rollins
6. Werth/Jenkins
7. Feliz
8. Ruiz
vs. LHP
1. Victorino
2. Utley
3. Werth
4. Burrell
5. Rollins
6. Feliz
7. Howard
8. Ruiz/Coste
"I'm puzzled by it," he said. "I'm open for suggestions. I'll listen to what anybody's got to say. Fans. Cab drivers. President Bush. Anybody."
Well, Charles, here are a few suggestions for an offense that has gone .202/.303/.351 for the month of August-
1. Stop batting Jimmy Rollins leadoff.
In his last 8 games, Jimmy "Boo Berry" Rollins has an overall OBP of .167. His OBP for the season leading off the game or an inning is .243. It's hard to set the table well when the silverware is tarnished and the dinner plates are moldy and disgusting. The solution here is simple- try Shane Victorino. He has a career .347 OBP when leading off a game or inning, which is not great but is a huge improvement over Jimmy, who has never been great as a leadoff hitter; sadly, other than last season, he hasn't been great batting in any other slot either.
2. Ryan Howard should not be batting cleanup vs. lefties.
Even batting him 7th would be questionable this season. He has a career OPS vs. LHP of .744. This year, it's a robust .587. Lefties have learned that if they have any kind of decent breaking ball, Howard is an easy out.
3. The Geoff Jenkins experiment has failed.
He was supposed to be a RHP hitting specialist, but the only thing he has specialized in this year is making outs. He has a .724 OPS vs. RHP this year, and has been atrocious since August 6th, although he's hardly alone in that. Jayson Werth hits both lefties and righties better than Jenkins at this point.
4. Try batting Burrell 2nd, or 3rd or 4th (especially vs. LHP,) more often.
Ryan Howard isn't protecting him anymore, and there's no one below him in the order to drive him in when he walks, which is often. Look, Burrell is not going to be a 140 RBI a year guy. But he is a guy with a great knack for getting on base. Use that to your advantage rather than watching the Jenkins/Feliz/Bruntlett/Coste/Ruiz/Dobbs casserole continually struggle to get him home.
5. Get on their asses.
Look, there is something seriously wrong here. No sane, enlightened person would have believed that this team would rank 5th in ERA and 4th in runs per game at August 19th, but here they are. You're the manager Charlie. Act like it.
Here are starting lineups Charlie should consider. They may seem a little wild, but hopefully they are better than President Bush's suggestions-
vs. RHP
1. Victorino
2. Burrell
3. Utley
4. Howard
5. Rollins
6. Werth/Jenkins
7. Feliz
8. Ruiz
vs. LHP
1. Victorino
2. Utley
3. Werth
4. Burrell
5. Rollins
6. Feliz
7. Howard
8. Ruiz/Coste
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Stuff about things
Regarding Kyle Kendrick BS- as usual, we were right and everyone else on this big blue marble we call earth was completely and utterly wrong.
Other Phillies garbage- Ryan Howard went 0-5 last night in the Phillies 8-6 loss. Everyone thought a month ago that Howard had returned to his normal form, but his numbers since then have been pretty nonformical- 24 games, .242/.308/.389, with just 4 HR and 2 doubles. And those awful errors. At least Utley seems to be putting himself back in MVP contention.
Eagles crap- good job by the Birds on making Brian Westbrook a happy camper (GET IT?) without mortgaging the team's future financial flexibility. Even though the deal looks a little long at first glance, its structure makes it easier to part with Westbrook should he prove to be like 80% of other NFL running backs and becomes ineffective as a runner by age 31.
Olympics hoohah- UPDATE- Beating Angola by 21 points is wholly unimpressive. The US men's team is now just 12 for 45 from 3-point range in 2 games. They needed better outside shooting and defense than 2004 and it looks like they didn't do a good job of getting it. China and Angola were their two easiest games.
India won its first ever gold medal yesterday in Men's shooting, which unbelievably is not dominated by the US. Maybe if the targets were human we'd do better. Anyway, there are 1 billion people in India, and this is the first time any one of them has been the best in the world at any Olympic sport. Get out of the call centers and onto the practice fields and into the pools, India. Your country needs you.
Michael Phelps' training includes eating 8,000-10,000 calories per day. The only downside is he has to swim a lot.
Best discovery of the Olympics so far- this hot Chinese beach volleyball player, Xue Chen-
Other Phillies garbage- Ryan Howard went 0-5 last night in the Phillies 8-6 loss. Everyone thought a month ago that Howard had returned to his normal form, but his numbers since then have been pretty nonformical- 24 games, .242/.308/.389, with just 4 HR and 2 doubles. And those awful errors. At least Utley seems to be putting himself back in MVP contention.
Eagles crap- good job by the Birds on making Brian Westbrook a happy camper (GET IT?) without mortgaging the team's future financial flexibility. Even though the deal looks a little long at first glance, its structure makes it easier to part with Westbrook should he prove to be like 80% of other NFL running backs and becomes ineffective as a runner by age 31.
Olympics hoohah- UPDATE- Beating Angola by 21 points is wholly unimpressive. The US men's team is now just 12 for 45 from 3-point range in 2 games. They needed better outside shooting and defense than 2004 and it looks like they didn't do a good job of getting it. China and Angola were their two easiest games.
India won its first ever gold medal yesterday in Men's shooting, which unbelievably is not dominated by the US. Maybe if the targets were human we'd do better. Anyway, there are 1 billion people in India, and this is the first time any one of them has been the best in the world at any Olympic sport. Get out of the call centers and onto the practice fields and into the pools, India. Your country needs you.
Michael Phelps' training includes eating 8,000-10,000 calories per day. The only downside is he has to swim a lot.
Best discovery of the Olympics so far- this hot Chinese beach volleyball player, Xue Chen-
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Steve Jeltz and other such men
Even to a 7 year old, it was pretty obvious that Steve Jeltz was one of the worst everyday players in baseball. An average fielder (on his good days), Jeltz was spectacularly bad at the plate. A switch-hitter, he gained no advantage from hitting from either side of the plate. He hit just 1 home run in his first 5 seasons (1,726 plate appearances) as a Phillie. He had a career batting average of .210 and was just 18 of 28 stealing bases for his career. Only 4 players since 1920 have more than 2000 career PA and a career SLG lower than Jeltz (.268), including the immortal Rafael Belliard. Amazing to think he once homered twice in one game (from both sides of the plate) since he was roughly as powerful as a sleeping toddler.
But looking over his numbers again, there is something surprising- Jeltzy took walks. Why would you ever throw the guy a ball? But he had a career OBP of .308- not impressive until you consider the .210 career BA. He actually averaged 55 BB per 162 games played, which is amazing when you consider he had almost zero ability with the bat. His career OPS+ gets a little boost from his inexplicable ability to draw walks. In fact, he's not even the worst Phillie in this category. Here, for fun, is a list of the 8 all-time worst Phillies hitters since 1930 as ranked by OPS+ (minimum 1500 PA as a Phillie). Obviously, it's shortstop heavy-
1. Bobby Wine- 59
I know he was a Gold Glove winning SS, but was his defense good enough to make up for this? I'll go find a crazed old man to ask.
2. Steve Jeltz- 64
Jeltz certainly did not play defense well enough to make up for this.
3. Denny Doyle- 66
Another defensive specialist, but at 2B. He became a better hitter after he left the Phillies in 1974. Shocking, I know.
4. Kevin Jordan- 68
This one mildly shocked me. I remember him as a being a pretty good hitting utility infielder. But he racked disciprine at the plate (I have permission from my girlfriend to mock Asian pronunciation).
5. Larry Bowa- 72
Picked up where Bobby Wine left off. Easily leads this list with over 7,000 PA as a Phillie and in Gold Gloves with 2. Fortunately for his nephew, he did not impart the secret knowledge of how to swing at the first pitch 90% of the time.
6. Ruben Amaro, Sr.- 74
The Bobby Wine of the Amaro family. Even platooned with Wine and still won a GG.
7. Ivan de Jesus- 78
Only played 3 years for the Phillies. Could hit a bit and took some walks, just had zero power. Traded by the Cubs for Larry Bowa and some prospect. And as we all know, that prospect was Julio Franco. Wait, wrong one. JD Drew. Nope. Peter Forsberg. Wrong sport. Ah, Ryne Sandberg.
8. Doug Glanville- 79
The worst non-infielder on the list. Hey, remember when he hit .325 that one year? Most of his years were nothing fucking like that. At least he could run. There is a theory that he was the prototype for Juan Pierre.
Honorable mention- Marlon Anderson (80), David Bell (84), Clay Dalrymple (84), Charlie Hayes (85), Kevin Stocker (85)
But looking over his numbers again, there is something surprising- Jeltzy took walks. Why would you ever throw the guy a ball? But he had a career OBP of .308- not impressive until you consider the .210 career BA. He actually averaged 55 BB per 162 games played, which is amazing when you consider he had almost zero ability with the bat. His career OPS+ gets a little boost from his inexplicable ability to draw walks. In fact, he's not even the worst Phillie in this category. Here, for fun, is a list of the 8 all-time worst Phillies hitters since 1930 as ranked by OPS+ (minimum 1500 PA as a Phillie). Obviously, it's shortstop heavy-
1. Bobby Wine- 59
I know he was a Gold Glove winning SS, but was his defense good enough to make up for this? I'll go find a crazed old man to ask.
2. Steve Jeltz- 64
Jeltz certainly did not play defense well enough to make up for this.
3. Denny Doyle- 66
Another defensive specialist, but at 2B. He became a better hitter after he left the Phillies in 1974. Shocking, I know.
4. Kevin Jordan- 68
This one mildly shocked me. I remember him as a being a pretty good hitting utility infielder. But he racked disciprine at the plate (I have permission from my girlfriend to mock Asian pronunciation).
5. Larry Bowa- 72
Picked up where Bobby Wine left off. Easily leads this list with over 7,000 PA as a Phillie and in Gold Gloves with 2. Fortunately for his nephew, he did not impart the secret knowledge of how to swing at the first pitch 90% of the time.
6. Ruben Amaro, Sr.- 74
The Bobby Wine of the Amaro family. Even platooned with Wine and still won a GG.
7. Ivan de Jesus- 78
Only played 3 years for the Phillies. Could hit a bit and took some walks, just had zero power. Traded by the Cubs for Larry Bowa and some prospect. And as we all know, that prospect was Julio Franco. Wait, wrong one. JD Drew. Nope. Peter Forsberg. Wrong sport. Ah, Ryne Sandberg.
8. Doug Glanville- 79
The worst non-infielder on the list. Hey, remember when he hit .325 that one year? Most of his years were nothing fucking like that. At least he could run. There is a theory that he was the prototype for Juan Pierre.
Honorable mention- Marlon Anderson (80), David Bell (84), Clay Dalrymple (84), Charlie Hayes (85), Kevin Stocker (85)
Thursday, July 31, 2008
I'm thinking of a word that rhymes with bunt...
Hearing Tom McCarthy and Sarge Matthews debate in the top of the 5th whether Jimmy Rollins, leadoff hitter and reigning NL MVP, should be given the green light to bunt with no one out, the 45-year old pitcher on first, and a man on second was enough to nearly make my TV commit seppoku. It was the 5th inning with the lineup turning over in a 1 run game against the worst team in baseball, possibly including Rookie and low-A ball. And you want to give up an out to maybe score one run. You're that scared of a double play ball? With a guy who has an OPS of 1.001 with runners on this season? Arrrrrgh.
Bunting still has it's place in baseball and in flag making. But there are too many situations where bunts are uncalled for and yet they end up being called for by the manager, fans, and announcers. Excessive bunting is a great strategy for teams that like to lose by one run. For more, here is an interesting blog post by Larry Dierker.
Bunting still has it's place in baseball and in flag making. But there are too many situations where bunts are uncalled for and yet they end up being called for by the manager, fans, and announcers. Excessive bunting is a great strategy for teams that like to lose by one run. For more, here is an interesting blog post by Larry Dierker.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Adam Eaton's Phillies Career (2007-2008)
July 28, 2008 (BSB NEWS)- IN Philadelphia, righthander Adam Eaton's Phillies career was not-so-tragically ended today when it was designated for assignment to the team's minor league affiliate in Allentown, PA. It was 1 5/8 years old. Eaton's career originated with the Phillies organization in 1996, but was interrupted by several years of mediocrity in other cities.
His career is survived by the floundering careers of Brett Myers and Joe Blanton, the knife Adam Eaton once stabbed himself with once while opening a DVD package, and 3 grandchildren, none of whom can throw a decent fastball.
His career is survived by the floundering careers of Brett Myers and Joe Blanton, the knife Adam Eaton once stabbed himself with once while opening a DVD package, and 3 grandchildren, none of whom can throw a decent fastball.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Stop The Madness!
The Matt Holliday trade talk will not go away. So one more time, here is the case against trading Shane Victorino, Carlos Carrasco, JA Happ, and Lou Marson for a package of the possibly overrated Holliday and pitcher Brian Fuentes, who actually is a pretty awesome reliever but will be a free agent after this season.
Holliday's overall career numbers-
642 games, .321/.385/.556, 119 HR, 450 RBI (for those who deeply care about RBI)
Career HOME numbers AGAIN-
331 games, .363/.426/.659, 80 HR, 289 RBI
Career AWAY numbers-
311 games, .277/.341/.449, 39 HR, 161 RBI
Holliday at CBP-
a very small sample size of 59 PA, .283/.356/.547, 4 HR
For argument's sake, let us pretend that those last numbers actually approximate what he would put up for the Phillies (an OPS of .900 or so). That would still be pretty darn good, and way better than his current career numbers outside of Coors Field. Even then, it is questionable whether it is worth further gutting the farm system by giving away the guy who projects to be the Phillies No. 2 starter by 2010 (Carrasco, not Happ), a good catching prospect for a team that desperately needs a catcher, and a starter whose minor league performance shows that he may actually be better than the guy who projects to be the No. 2 starter in 2010 (this is Happ). And while Victorino may be a fan favorite because he's fast and people are led to believe he wears a hula skirt and eats poi in the clubhouse, he is actually expendable. Sorry, Spam lovers.
There is another issue with Holliday, albeit a smaller one- where does he play? The guy has only played LF his entire career, and that's where Man Machine Burrell lives. Obviously, if they do acquire Holliday they can always put him in RF and move him back to LF when the cheap-ass Phillies don't re-sign Burrell after this season's crushing playoff defeat. But what about the remainder of this year? Moving Holliday from LF to RF isn't like moving Ryan Howard to SS, but it would force him to perform in an unnatural position, which is fine for pornography, sure. But in baseball, not so good.
It's become obvious they need some help on offense. And since the Phils won't do simple things like STOP BATTING JIMMY ROLLINS LEADOFF or STOP PULLING BURRELL FROM EVERY CLOSE GAME or GO BACK IN TIME AND RE-SIGN AARON ROWAND, they probably do need to acquire another bat to make up for the damage that Geoff Jenkins, Pedro Feliz, and Carlos Ruiz cause to the offense. And that player will likely have to come in the form of an outfielder. The questionable call here is whether Holliday is the bat they need and whether the cost for his services is too high. As the supposed deal on the table is structured now, it probably is.
Holliday's overall career numbers-
642 games, .321/.385/.556, 119 HR, 450 RBI (for those who deeply care about RBI)
Career HOME numbers AGAIN-
331 games, .363/.426/.659, 80 HR, 289 RBI
Career AWAY numbers-
311 games, .277/.341/.449, 39 HR, 161 RBI
Holliday at CBP-
a very small sample size of 59 PA, .283/.356/.547, 4 HR
For argument's sake, let us pretend that those last numbers actually approximate what he would put up for the Phillies (an OPS of .900 or so). That would still be pretty darn good, and way better than his current career numbers outside of Coors Field. Even then, it is questionable whether it is worth further gutting the farm system by giving away the guy who projects to be the Phillies No. 2 starter by 2010 (Carrasco, not Happ), a good catching prospect for a team that desperately needs a catcher, and a starter whose minor league performance shows that he may actually be better than the guy who projects to be the No. 2 starter in 2010 (this is Happ). And while Victorino may be a fan favorite because he's fast and people are led to believe he wears a hula skirt and eats poi in the clubhouse, he is actually expendable. Sorry, Spam lovers.
There is another issue with Holliday, albeit a smaller one- where does he play? The guy has only played LF his entire career, and that's where Man Machine Burrell lives. Obviously, if they do acquire Holliday they can always put him in RF and move him back to LF when the cheap-ass Phillies don't re-sign Burrell after this season's crushing playoff defeat. But what about the remainder of this year? Moving Holliday from LF to RF isn't like moving Ryan Howard to SS, but it would force him to perform in an unnatural position, which is fine for pornography, sure. But in baseball, not so good.
It's become obvious they need some help on offense. And since the Phils won't do simple things like STOP BATTING JIMMY ROLLINS LEADOFF or STOP PULLING BURRELL FROM EVERY CLOSE GAME or GO BACK IN TIME AND RE-SIGN AARON ROWAND, they probably do need to acquire another bat to make up for the damage that Geoff Jenkins, Pedro Feliz, and Carlos Ruiz cause to the offense. And that player will likely have to come in the form of an outfielder. The questionable call here is whether Holliday is the bat they need and whether the cost for his services is too high. As the supposed deal on the table is structured now, it probably is.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
The Zo Spin Zone
From Todd Zolecki's blog regarding the Joe Blanton deal (which reads a lot like an employee of the Phillies wrote):
Take away his four worst starts this season and he has a 3.58 ERA,
This is what we refer to as "cherrypicking". When you have a sample size of 200 starts, maybe you can point to four starts as an aberration. When you have a sample size of 20 starts, pulling out four starts equates to 20% of Blanton's performance. Would you justify a batter's first half performance by removing 60 at bats? Of course not. So why do it with a pitcher?
But if you're going to play this game, you can look at it from a lot of different angles.
Take away Joe Blanton's four best starts this season and he has a 5.82 ERA.
Take away Adam Eaton's four worst starts this season and he has a 4.15 ERA.
Take away Cole Hamels' four worst starts this season and he has a 2.10 ERA.
THIS IS WHY YOU DON'T REMOVE 20% OF YOUR SAMPLE SIZE.
I liked the pun I used for the title.
Take away his four worst starts this season and he has a 3.58 ERA,
This is what we refer to as "cherrypicking". When you have a sample size of 200 starts, maybe you can point to four starts as an aberration. When you have a sample size of 20 starts, pulling out four starts equates to 20% of Blanton's performance. Would you justify a batter's first half performance by removing 60 at bats? Of course not. So why do it with a pitcher?
But if you're going to play this game, you can look at it from a lot of different angles.
Take away Joe Blanton's four best starts this season and he has a 5.82 ERA.
Take away Adam Eaton's four worst starts this season and he has a 4.15 ERA.
Take away Cole Hamels' four worst starts this season and he has a 2.10 ERA.
THIS IS WHY YOU DON'T REMOVE 20% OF YOUR SAMPLE SIZE.
I liked the pun I used for the title.
David Murphy on Matt Holliday in the DN today-
Matt Holliday, outfielder Colorado- We won't bore you with the stats. OK, yes, we will: .337 batting average, .421 on-base percentage, 14 home runs, 51 RBI. Holliday is a stud.
I'd like to make a correction to his statement that Holliday is some sort of male horse who breeds with female horses- Holliday is a stud ONLY AT COORS FIELD. For his career, he has an impressive Home OPS of 1.086, but a pedestrian Away OPS of .790. Sure, a little bit of that can be blamed on the fact that he has to play a lot of away games at Petco Park and Dodger Stadium, but those splits show his overall stats are more a product of the thin Colorado air rather than massive studliness.
And this goes on throughout their lineup- Todd Helton has a career Home OPS of 1.114 (!) and an Away OPS of .888 (good, but not ! good). Garrett Atkins, a player most Phillies fans would love to have at the hot corner, has a career .934 Home OPS and a .765 career Away OPS. Brad Hawpe, amazingly, bucks the trend- his career Home OPS is .876 and Away it is only .32 points lower. Yorvit Torrealba was a terrible hitter before he went to Colorado... and, well, still is.
Now, the Phillies also play in a park known as hitter friendly. But their splits aren't nearly as severe as the Rockies. Chase Utley has a career Home OPS of .945 and an Away OPS of .867. Ryan Howard- .984 Home, .962 Away. Pat Burrell has almost identical splits- .858 Home and .859 Away (although he did play in the Vet for a few years). Rollins also played in the Vet, and his Home OPS is .800, Away .747. And last year in his MVP season, he had a Home OPS of .892 and an Away OPS of .859. Not a huge gap there.
Perhaps the best example of the Coors Field effect is Vinny Castilla. The guy put up a bunch of 30-40 HR season for the Rockies in the 90's, left and struggled in ATL, TB, and HOU for a couple years, then in 2004 goes back to COL and hits 35 dongs and 43 doubles at 36 years old. The next year in WAS, he hit 12 HR in 494 AB. Larry Walker's another one- he was Superman when he played for Colorado, but was a mere Green Arrow or Booster Gold on Montreal and St. Louis. Dante Bichette's another one who was just plain average outside of Coors. And the list goes on.
The point of all this, of course, is screw the Rockies, and be glad that they absolutely suck this year. Losers.
*I realize that Castilla and Walker are "pre-Coors Field humidor" guys. But it doesn't change much. Holliday has played his entire career in the Colorado post-humidor world.
Matt Holliday, outfielder Colorado- We won't bore you with the stats. OK, yes, we will: .337 batting average, .421 on-base percentage, 14 home runs, 51 RBI. Holliday is a stud.
I'd like to make a correction to his statement that Holliday is some sort of male horse who breeds with female horses- Holliday is a stud ONLY AT COORS FIELD. For his career, he has an impressive Home OPS of 1.086, but a pedestrian Away OPS of .790. Sure, a little bit of that can be blamed on the fact that he has to play a lot of away games at Petco Park and Dodger Stadium, but those splits show his overall stats are more a product of the thin Colorado air rather than massive studliness.
And this goes on throughout their lineup- Todd Helton has a career Home OPS of 1.114 (!) and an Away OPS of .888 (good, but not ! good). Garrett Atkins, a player most Phillies fans would love to have at the hot corner, has a career .934 Home OPS and a .765 career Away OPS. Brad Hawpe, amazingly, bucks the trend- his career Home OPS is .876 and Away it is only .32 points lower. Yorvit Torrealba was a terrible hitter before he went to Colorado... and, well, still is.
Now, the Phillies also play in a park known as hitter friendly. But their splits aren't nearly as severe as the Rockies. Chase Utley has a career Home OPS of .945 and an Away OPS of .867. Ryan Howard- .984 Home, .962 Away. Pat Burrell has almost identical splits- .858 Home and .859 Away (although he did play in the Vet for a few years). Rollins also played in the Vet, and his Home OPS is .800, Away .747. And last year in his MVP season, he had a Home OPS of .892 and an Away OPS of .859. Not a huge gap there.
Perhaps the best example of the Coors Field effect is Vinny Castilla. The guy put up a bunch of 30-40 HR season for the Rockies in the 90's, left and struggled in ATL, TB, and HOU for a couple years, then in 2004 goes back to COL and hits 35 dongs and 43 doubles at 36 years old. The next year in WAS, he hit 12 HR in 494 AB. Larry Walker's another one- he was Superman when he played for Colorado, but was a mere Green Arrow or Booster Gold on Montreal and St. Louis. Dante Bichette's another one who was just plain average outside of Coors. And the list goes on.
The point of all this, of course, is screw the Rockies, and be glad that they absolutely suck this year. Losers.
*I realize that Castilla and Walker are "pre-Coors Field humidor" guys. But it doesn't change much. Holliday has played his entire career in the Colorado post-humidor world.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Who is Jimmy Rollins?
From Sam Donnellon’s piece in today’s DN on Jimmy Rollins’ inconsistency at the plate-
This season, when Rollins has scored, the record is 21-7.
So they’re 21-7 because Jimmy Rollins scored? No. Obviously his point is Rollins needs to get on base for the Phillies to be at their best. But why pick on Jimmy for not being on base more often? It’s no secret that it’s just not a big part of his game.
Jimmy Rollins is a very good player. Awesome power for his size, outstanding speed, a very good fielder, and just the right amount of cockiness (usually). But he is not a great leadoff hitter. His current OBP of .340 is actually better than his career OBP of .332, and is close to his OBP last season of .344. So the “problem” with Jimmy isn’t that he suddenly isn’t getting on base; the problem is he’s NEVER excelled at getting on base. He’s very ordinary and average when it comes to that.
In fact, the one thing he did significantly better than usual last year had nothing to do with just getting on base; it was getting extra bases when he hit. His SLG of .531 last year is 90 points better than his career SLG of .441. And lo and behold- his SLG this year is .438, right around his career average. Jimmy hasn’t fallen apart; he’s just having an average year by his standards. It's who Jimmy is.
This season, when Rollins has scored, the record is 21-7.
So they’re 21-7 because Jimmy Rollins scored? No. Obviously his point is Rollins needs to get on base for the Phillies to be at their best. But why pick on Jimmy for not being on base more often? It’s no secret that it’s just not a big part of his game.
Jimmy Rollins is a very good player. Awesome power for his size, outstanding speed, a very good fielder, and just the right amount of cockiness (usually). But he is not a great leadoff hitter. His current OBP of .340 is actually better than his career OBP of .332, and is close to his OBP last season of .344. So the “problem” with Jimmy isn’t that he suddenly isn’t getting on base; the problem is he’s NEVER excelled at getting on base. He’s very ordinary and average when it comes to that.
In fact, the one thing he did significantly better than usual last year had nothing to do with just getting on base; it was getting extra bases when he hit. His SLG of .531 last year is 90 points better than his career SLG of .441. And lo and behold- his SLG this year is .438, right around his career average. Jimmy hasn’t fallen apart; he’s just having an average year by his standards. It's who Jimmy is.
Monday, June 9, 2008
Major Tom, this is Ground Control. Stop singing and return to base immediately.
Over the last six weeks or so, Jim and I have received a decent amount of correspondence from our rapid teenage girl fanbase (note to the authorities: all emails with a picture are deleted immediately so there is no reason to look at all the other porn on our computers on one of your fishing expeditions) asking us what is up with the lack of updates to the site. For instance, Kara, 14 from Drexel Hill, wrote the following:
Hey guyz? Whtzup?!?! When willz u2 rite a new post? W/B/S. Kara
Well Kara, we do appreciate your concern, but sometimes other aspects of our lives receive more priority than this website. I can't speak for Jim, but I have been so caught up in the battle to determine Zimbabwe's next President that I have pretty much been ignoring sports completely. But I do think I can take a quick break from going over the latest poll data from Masvingo to answer a few questions about the Phillies. First though, I must cease laughing at "heady" David Eckstein getting picked off first in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game with no outs and Alex Rios about to get on base with a walk.
Is Ryan Howard going to turn it around or will he break his own strike out record?
Yes and yes. Howard's current BABIP is .259, which is significantly less than his three year average of .346 from '05-'07. Unless managers have figured out exactly where to play all seven guys in the field when Howard is at bat, the easiest explanation to the drop in BABIP is simply luck. For whatever reason, when Howard puts the ball in play, it is not finding the holes that it did the past three seasons. This number will go up or I'm not the next coach of the Chicago Bulls. His lack of walks is still concerning to me (Howard has two eight game streaks without taking a walk, he had zero such streaks in '07), I think he will start getting more hits in the next few months.
As far as the strikeouts go, Ryan Howard is always going to swing and miss at a lot of baseballs. If he gets ten at bats in a game, which I am predicting will happen August 29 at Wrigley and the Phils will win 32-28, Howard will strike out three times. The strike outs are the necessary evil that come with his insane power. People who suggest that he should choke up or just try to make contact probably need to go reassure their son that even if he isn't the best player on the team, he is still loved, because I'm sure he has his doubts.
Are there any players out there that the Phillies could trade for?
Probably, but it is still very early. I think a big prize will be Brian Fuentes of the Rockies, who is having another great year in that awful ballpark (ERA+ of 184). He only makes $5 million this year and will be a free agent at the end of this season. He would be a great addition to the back of the Phillies bullpen, but I don't know if the Rockies would be willing to take back a lot of guys in A ball because that is all the Phillies can afford to trade.
What can save the Mets season?
Hopefully nothing. Their current situation is much too entertaining for it to stop.
If the season ended on June 9, would Chase Utley be the MVP?
No. But if the baseball season ended on June 9, I think there would be much more important topics to talk about. Like, who is going to take my dollar coins in return for hot dogs later this summer?
Has Pedro Feliz won you over yet?
I am doing my best to ignore how awful he is as a hitter and just focus on the stability that he adds in the field. He does have a rocket for an arm and makes most of the plays he has to. But he is going to end the season with an OPS+ around 80-85 and hopefully the human out machine doesn't hurt them in the playoffs.
Hungry?
Yes. Meeting over.
Hey guyz? Whtzup?!?! When willz u2 rite a new post? W/B/S. Kara
Well Kara, we do appreciate your concern, but sometimes other aspects of our lives receive more priority than this website. I can't speak for Jim, but I have been so caught up in the battle to determine Zimbabwe's next President that I have pretty much been ignoring sports completely. But I do think I can take a quick break from going over the latest poll data from Masvingo to answer a few questions about the Phillies. First though, I must cease laughing at "heady" David Eckstein getting picked off first in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game with no outs and Alex Rios about to get on base with a walk.
Is Ryan Howard going to turn it around or will he break his own strike out record?
Yes and yes. Howard's current BABIP is .259, which is significantly less than his three year average of .346 from '05-'07. Unless managers have figured out exactly where to play all seven guys in the field when Howard is at bat, the easiest explanation to the drop in BABIP is simply luck. For whatever reason, when Howard puts the ball in play, it is not finding the holes that it did the past three seasons. This number will go up or I'm not the next coach of the Chicago Bulls. His lack of walks is still concerning to me (Howard has two eight game streaks without taking a walk, he had zero such streaks in '07), I think he will start getting more hits in the next few months.
As far as the strikeouts go, Ryan Howard is always going to swing and miss at a lot of baseballs. If he gets ten at bats in a game, which I am predicting will happen August 29 at Wrigley and the Phils will win 32-28, Howard will strike out three times. The strike outs are the necessary evil that come with his insane power. People who suggest that he should choke up or just try to make contact probably need to go reassure their son that even if he isn't the best player on the team, he is still loved, because I'm sure he has his doubts.
Are there any players out there that the Phillies could trade for?
Probably, but it is still very early. I think a big prize will be Brian Fuentes of the Rockies, who is having another great year in that awful ballpark (ERA+ of 184). He only makes $5 million this year and will be a free agent at the end of this season. He would be a great addition to the back of the Phillies bullpen, but I don't know if the Rockies would be willing to take back a lot of guys in A ball because that is all the Phillies can afford to trade.
What can save the Mets season?
Hopefully nothing. Their current situation is much too entertaining for it to stop.
If the season ended on June 9, would Chase Utley be the MVP?
No. But if the baseball season ended on June 9, I think there would be much more important topics to talk about. Like, who is going to take my dollar coins in return for hot dogs later this summer?
Has Pedro Feliz won you over yet?
I am doing my best to ignore how awful he is as a hitter and just focus on the stability that he adds in the field. He does have a rocket for an arm and makes most of the plays he has to. But he is going to end the season with an OPS+ around 80-85 and hopefully the human out machine doesn't hurt them in the playoffs.
Hungry?
Yes. Meeting over.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Let's Look At the Positives
Instead of messing with the Sixers karma, I choose instead to look at the positives of the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies. It is much easier to harp on the negative (which you can find at www.pleasegoaway.farfaraway.ericbruntlett.com) so instead I would like to look at the positive side of the first three weeks of the Phillies' season.
Positive Point #1 - Chase Utley is Superhuman
In a summer that is going to be dominated by Iron Man, Batman, and the Hulk, it is only appropriate that Chase Utley reveal himself as Planet Earth's first real superhero. So far this year, Utley leads the NL in Home Runs, Slugging, OPS, Total Bases, High Fives, Extra Base Hits, Fastest Rope Climb, Batting Wins, At-Bats per Home Runs, and Overall Swellness. Once Chipper Jones does his first stint on the DL (over/under May 11 (Reminder that is Mother's Day (Just wanted to throw in another set of parentheses))), Utley will be the clear cut favorite to win the MVP. At that point, the NL may have to institute a new rule that bans any Phillie from winning the award for the next five years until their core players are out of their peak.
Positive Point #2 - Pat Burrell is the White Jesus
If you look back far enough on the archives here, you will find a post where I advocated getting rid of Burrell because his power had all but disappeared. What you did not know was that I was using reverse psychology, figuring that if I joined the bandwagon of idiots who envied Burrell because of his salary and lifestyle, then Burrell would become a great hitter. And you know what? It gosh darn worked. I'm not sure why Paul Hagen or Jayson Stark haven't called me up with an interview request, but it probably has something to do with the fact that the Philadelphia area isn't ready for this kind of heady story. Or they just don't have my phone number.
Positive Point #3 - The Phillies Bullpen is Unhittable
This is more Jim's point than mine (as well as my imaginary internet friend "airborne"), but I will re-iterate it (or would I just be iterating it since Jim has not made it here?): The Phillies bullpen has been brilliant.
Positive Point #4 - Charlie Manuel Could Make a Quadriplegic Walk
Last season, Rod Barajas joined the Phillies and brought along a career OBP of under .300. In his one season with the Phillies, he put up an OBP of .352, 46 points higher than his career high, while only hitting .230. In 400 years, alien researchers will look at these statistics and then look at each and scream, "What the FUCK?!?" But then they'll realize that Ole' Chuck Manuel was their manager and it was slowly make sense to them and they can figure out more efficient ways to enslave the human race.
Well, Ole' Chuck is at it again, this time with Pedro Happy. Pedro has a career BA of .251 and a career OBP of .288. This season his OBP is right in line with his career mark at .282, but he is doing it with a BA almost 50 points lower than his career average at .203. He is on pace for 54 walks which would absolutely shatter his career high. In fact, if he were to reach 54 walks, that would represent almost 27% of Mr. Happy's career total of walks that he has accumulated in six plus seasons of being a regular. And who is responsible for allowing us to marvel at the physical specimen that is Pedro Feliz trot to first base? Ole' Chuck Manuel, of course.
Positive Point #5 - Cole Hamels
If someone came up to me and yelled, "DID YOU SEE THE PHILLIES GAME TODAY COLE HAMELS SHOT LIGHTNING OUT OF HIS HAND", I would calmly grab both of their shoulders and politely ask them "Was it out of his left hand or right?" If Pat Burrell is the White Jesus, then Cole Hamels the White Jesus that Pitches As Well. And that concept completely blows Ben Stein's Mind.
Positive Point #6 - Phillies Lead the Majors in Home Runs
When I was a young lad attending Phillies games in the best seats at the Vet, people used to get so excited seeing a home run because they were so rare. In fact, we would talk on the car ride to the game how lucky we would be if we got to see, gasp, two home runs hit by the Phillies. When I think about stories like these it reminds me how lucky I was that I was never kidnapped in any of the weird bathrooms or other nooks at the Vet. That place was a creep's heaven with all the dark corners and easy exits. Yikes!
Positive Point #7 - It isn't even May yet
The team is .500. If it weren't for their inept training staff, Jimmy Rollins would probably be playing right now. Howard will eventually start hitting or else I'll have to write him a letter telling him that he is my hero, but he is letting me down and include a picture of me threatening to kill my cat if he doesn't pick it up. I'm not worried. You should not be either.
Positive Point #1 - Chase Utley is Superhuman
In a summer that is going to be dominated by Iron Man, Batman, and the Hulk, it is only appropriate that Chase Utley reveal himself as Planet Earth's first real superhero. So far this year, Utley leads the NL in Home Runs, Slugging, OPS, Total Bases, High Fives, Extra Base Hits, Fastest Rope Climb, Batting Wins, At-Bats per Home Runs, and Overall Swellness. Once Chipper Jones does his first stint on the DL (over/under May 11 (Reminder that is Mother's Day (Just wanted to throw in another set of parentheses))), Utley will be the clear cut favorite to win the MVP. At that point, the NL may have to institute a new rule that bans any Phillie from winning the award for the next five years until their core players are out of their peak.
Positive Point #2 - Pat Burrell is the White Jesus
If you look back far enough on the archives here, you will find a post where I advocated getting rid of Burrell because his power had all but disappeared. What you did not know was that I was using reverse psychology, figuring that if I joined the bandwagon of idiots who envied Burrell because of his salary and lifestyle, then Burrell would become a great hitter. And you know what? It gosh darn worked. I'm not sure why Paul Hagen or Jayson Stark haven't called me up with an interview request, but it probably has something to do with the fact that the Philadelphia area isn't ready for this kind of heady story. Or they just don't have my phone number.
Positive Point #3 - The Phillies Bullpen is Unhittable
This is more Jim's point than mine (as well as my imaginary internet friend "airborne"), but I will re-iterate it (or would I just be iterating it since Jim has not made it here?): The Phillies bullpen has been brilliant.
- Brad Lidge: 8.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8 Ks
- JC Romero: 9.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 10 Ks
- Rudy Seanez: 7.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP (this will not last if his K:BB ratio stays at 1:2.33)
- Chad "The Real Real Deal" Durbin: 14.0 IP, 0.64 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Positive Point #4 - Charlie Manuel Could Make a Quadriplegic Walk
Last season, Rod Barajas joined the Phillies and brought along a career OBP of under .300. In his one season with the Phillies, he put up an OBP of .352, 46 points higher than his career high, while only hitting .230. In 400 years, alien researchers will look at these statistics and then look at each and scream, "What the FUCK?!?" But then they'll realize that Ole' Chuck Manuel was their manager and it was slowly make sense to them and they can figure out more efficient ways to enslave the human race.
Well, Ole' Chuck is at it again, this time with Pedro Happy. Pedro has a career BA of .251 and a career OBP of .288. This season his OBP is right in line with his career mark at .282, but he is doing it with a BA almost 50 points lower than his career average at .203. He is on pace for 54 walks which would absolutely shatter his career high. In fact, if he were to reach 54 walks, that would represent almost 27% of Mr. Happy's career total of walks that he has accumulated in six plus seasons of being a regular. And who is responsible for allowing us to marvel at the physical specimen that is Pedro Feliz trot to first base? Ole' Chuck Manuel, of course.
Positive Point #5 - Cole Hamels
If someone came up to me and yelled, "DID YOU SEE THE PHILLIES GAME TODAY COLE HAMELS SHOT LIGHTNING OUT OF HIS HAND", I would calmly grab both of their shoulders and politely ask them "Was it out of his left hand or right?" If Pat Burrell is the White Jesus, then Cole Hamels the White Jesus that Pitches As Well. And that concept completely blows Ben Stein's Mind.
Positive Point #6 - Phillies Lead the Majors in Home Runs
When I was a young lad attending Phillies games in the best seats at the Vet, people used to get so excited seeing a home run because they were so rare. In fact, we would talk on the car ride to the game how lucky we would be if we got to see, gasp, two home runs hit by the Phillies. When I think about stories like these it reminds me how lucky I was that I was never kidnapped in any of the weird bathrooms or other nooks at the Vet. That place was a creep's heaven with all the dark corners and easy exits. Yikes!
Positive Point #7 - It isn't even May yet
The team is .500. If it weren't for their inept training staff, Jimmy Rollins would probably be playing right now. Howard will eventually start hitting or else I'll have to write him a letter telling him that he is my hero, but he is letting me down and include a picture of me threatening to kill my cat if he doesn't pick it up. I'm not worried. You should not be either.
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Walk Hard
I was thumbing through the 2008 Phillies' Media Guide and was intrigued by Pedro Feliz' bio. In response to the question, "What are your three top pet peeves, in no particular order", Pedro listed the following:
- Sushi
- People who don't close closets
- Taking four pitches that are out of the strike zone during an at bat
The first week of the Feliz Era did not exactly make anyone forget Charlie Hayes. Over the course of his first 20 plate appearances (WARNING: WE ARE STILL IN THE LAND OF EXTREMELY SMALL SAMPLE SIZES) and he produced 4 singles and 1 walk. Hopefully Week 2 at leasts sees the debut of Pedro Feliz on second base after a plate appearance.
It is fun to trash Feliz, but as a whole, the Phillies' offense has been pretty putrid outside of Chase Utley and Pat Burrell. This will turn around. The pitching on the other hand......
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Season's Over, Part Two
Aaron Rowand would not have stood for an 0-2 start. Neither would Larry Bowa. It's time to get rid of all these soft losers and get a bunch of guys who will care about the first week of the season. Fire Manuel, waive Burrell, trade Howard. THESE GUYS NEED A WAKEUP CALL.
Back to Planet Earth.
The Good: Cole Hamels was quite nasty tonight. The wind was blowing in significantly, but I don't care about the weather. I care about results. 8 innings, 5 hits, and one run should get it done on most nights.
The Bad: Except on this night when the offense only was able to muster up one hit. When International Pop Superstar Pedro Feliz is responsible for filling out the team's entire box score, it is going to be difficult to win.
The Ugly: A little off topic, but how can the NBA allow Miami to charge customers that actually want to attend their games? Their starting five is Ricky Davis, Earl Barron, Mark Blount, Chris Quinn, and Daquean Cook. Their bench is four deep and I've never heard of any of the four dudes. They have failed to score 80 points in six of their last eleven games. They've lost by an average of 20 points in their last four games. This might be the worst team to ever play in the NBA.
Back to Planet Earth.
The Good: Cole Hamels was quite nasty tonight. The wind was blowing in significantly, but I don't care about the weather. I care about results. 8 innings, 5 hits, and one run should get it done on most nights.
The Bad: Except on this night when the offense only was able to muster up one hit. When International Pop Superstar Pedro Feliz is responsible for filling out the team's entire box score, it is going to be difficult to win.
The Ugly: A little off topic, but how can the NBA allow Miami to charge customers that actually want to attend their games? Their starting five is Ricky Davis, Earl Barron, Mark Blount, Chris Quinn, and Daquean Cook. Their bench is four deep and I've never heard of any of the four dudes. They have failed to score 80 points in six of their last eleven games. They've lost by an average of 20 points in their last four games. This might be the worst team to ever play in the NBA.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Missing Aaron Rowand
THE SEASON IS RUINED AFTER ONE GAME BECAUSE ROWAND IS GONE!
Of couse, Sam Donnellon says that's not his point in writing this article. But....... it is.
I love this too-
"Utley, who launched a sixth-inning home run, had the front of his shirt caked in dirt by game's end."
That's right- he's a real ballplayer. Hey, Tom Gordon- get some fucking dirt caked on you and maybe you'll be good like Chase. I don't care if you have to have jump in a dumpster before you take the mound, get dirty dammit!
Of couse, Sam Donnellon says that's not his point in writing this article. But....... it is.
I love this too-
"Utley, who launched a sixth-inning home run, had the front of his shirt caked in dirt by game's end."
That's right- he's a real ballplayer. Hey, Tom Gordon- get some fucking dirt caked on you and maybe you'll be good like Chase. I don't care if you have to have jump in a dumpster before you take the mound, get dirty dammit!
Monday, March 31, 2008
Season's Over, Part One
The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly from the season opener.
The Good: Chase Utley had a nice game at the plate with his first home run and two hits for the day. And he didn't bobble an easy groundball that led to a crucial run like another star player on the team who plays a middle infield position, but will remain nameless.
The Bad: Charlie Manuel continues to make me question why MLB teams have humans managing them and not monkeys. He is probably going to catch a lot of heat for pulling JC Romero for Tom Gordon, but that is one of those situations where he is only right if it works. If Romero stays in and gives up a ton of runs, then he is an idiot for not brining in Gordon. It is too early to stretch these relievers out.
My problem was his decision in the first inning of the first game of the year to have Victorino bunt Rollins over to third with no one out. The only way this decision makes sense is if one of the following is true:
The Ugly: Tom Gordon and his 135.01 ERA. I really enjoy it for the first week or so when pitchers have to carry around these monstrous ERAs after one or two bad outings. And Gordon was bad. Hopefully he can get one more year out of that arm of his or Brad Lidge has a time machine. Otherwise the last few innings are not going to be pleasant to watch.
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Pedro Feliz is going to be the whipping boy this year, at least here. And he did nothing to prove us wrong today, going 0-4 with two strikeouts, a double play, and leaving three guys on base. But hey, he might hit 20 home runs and everyone knows how awesome home runs are!!!
The Good: Chase Utley had a nice game at the plate with his first home run and two hits for the day. And he didn't bobble an easy groundball that led to a crucial run like another star player on the team who plays a middle infield position, but will remain nameless.
The Bad: Charlie Manuel continues to make me question why MLB teams have humans managing them and not monkeys. He is probably going to catch a lot of heat for pulling JC Romero for Tom Gordon, but that is one of those situations where he is only right if it works. If Romero stays in and gives up a ton of runs, then he is an idiot for not brining in Gordon. It is too early to stretch these relievers out.
My problem was his decision in the first inning of the first game of the year to have Victorino bunt Rollins over to third with no one out. The only way this decision makes sense is if one of the following is true:
- The Phillies offense is terrible
- The Phillies pitching staff is good enough to hold a one run lead for the next eight innings.
- It is 1948 and all the town is buzzing about how Thomas Dewey is going to make a great President.
The Ugly: Tom Gordon and his 135.01 ERA. I really enjoy it for the first week or so when pitchers have to carry around these monstrous ERAs after one or two bad outings. And Gordon was bad. Hopefully he can get one more year out of that arm of his or Brad Lidge has a time machine. Otherwise the last few innings are not going to be pleasant to watch.
---------
Pedro Feliz is going to be the whipping boy this year, at least here. And he did nothing to prove us wrong today, going 0-4 with two strikeouts, a double play, and leaving three guys on base. But hey, he might hit 20 home runs and everyone knows how awesome home runs are!!!
Your 2008 Philadelphia Phillies
It's opening day, so what the fuck, here's a Phillies preview.
They're not winning the division. Hey, if they do win it again, that's great, and it'll be a drunk and happy time if they do. But with the Mets adding the best pitcher in the world to their already good team and the Braves looking like they'll win more than 84 games this year, the Phils are going to be in a massively bloody and gory battle, replete with missing limbs and infected pus-filled wounds, for the division, let alone the Wild Card.
Offensively, they're in very good shape, although it'll be hard to match last season's incredible 892 runs scored unless MLB suddenly allows DH's in the NL. Their 2008 PECOTA projection is 839 runs scored, and who can argue with the mighty PECOTA program? No one. The Phils should have one of the top three offenses in the NL, as they usually do. The loss of Aaron Rowand's offense will be countered by the addition of Geoff Jenkins (vs. RHP anyway) and increased playing time for Jayson Werth. And the loss of Rowand's grit will be countered by the addition of grits to the players' pre-game meal. Also, reports that Pedro Feliz is an upgrade on offense are as inaccurate as Willie Green from 3 point range. He's 32 and has a career OBP of .288. Yeah, he'll hit 25 HR's, but he is not going to push the offense into bold new high-scoring places. But that's okay- healthy seasons from top producers Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell (YES PAT BURRELL), and Jimmy Rollins means a potent offense and plenty of support for the pitching staff.
And the pitching staff is going to need it. Obviously there are high hopes for another great season from Cole Hamels and the return to starting of Brett Myers. But after that, things get buggy. Jamie Moyer is a savvy vet, and old war-horse, and not totally decrepit at 45 but is coming off his worst season since 2004. Kyle Kendrick did an amazing job last year and is fun to prank but will have a hard time duplicating that success now that's he's a known commodity. And Adam Eaton fucking sucks.
In the bullpen, new closer Brad Lidge of course is starting the season on the DL because the Phillies' training staff is on the Mets' payroll (conspiracy theory in development). This leaves the closing duties to Tom Gordon, who was so ineffective last season that he was only the 4th best reliever on the Philadelphia Phillies. JC Romero, he of the 1.24 ERA with the Phils in '07, is as streaky as decent relievers get. Evidence of his streakiness- his career ERA is 4.30, but he's never had a single season with an ERA in the 4's. They're all higher or lower. Expect something a little closer to, but hopefully not higher than, that career ERA number from him this season. Ryan Madson started pitching very well before he got hurt last year; hopefully he used a bookmark so he can easily pick up where he left off. And other than that, the 'pen is full of unproven and below average stuff, like an Old Navy store.
As far as intangibles go, you can expect them to be very good when the Phillies are winning, and very poor when the Phillies are losing. It's frigging sports; teams have fun when they are winning and are miserable when they're losing.
Overall, after last year's amazing run the expectations for the Phillies this season are extremely high. But the reality is they're in a tough division and have a pitching staff of dubious quality. This sums it up- the Mets went out and got Johan Santana; the Phillies went out and got Kris and Anna Benson. Advantage- Mets (unless you're really into bitchy right-wing women with huge racks). Put the questionable pitching together with the Phillies explosive offense, and they're an 87 win team. A few things break right, and they'll win 90.
And that's my final predicition- 90 wins, and the Wild Card spot. Go Phils.
They're not winning the division. Hey, if they do win it again, that's great, and it'll be a drunk and happy time if they do. But with the Mets adding the best pitcher in the world to their already good team and the Braves looking like they'll win more than 84 games this year, the Phils are going to be in a massively bloody and gory battle, replete with missing limbs and infected pus-filled wounds, for the division, let alone the Wild Card.
Offensively, they're in very good shape, although it'll be hard to match last season's incredible 892 runs scored unless MLB suddenly allows DH's in the NL. Their 2008 PECOTA projection is 839 runs scored, and who can argue with the mighty PECOTA program? No one. The Phils should have one of the top three offenses in the NL, as they usually do. The loss of Aaron Rowand's offense will be countered by the addition of Geoff Jenkins (vs. RHP anyway) and increased playing time for Jayson Werth. And the loss of Rowand's grit will be countered by the addition of grits to the players' pre-game meal. Also, reports that Pedro Feliz is an upgrade on offense are as inaccurate as Willie Green from 3 point range. He's 32 and has a career OBP of .288. Yeah, he'll hit 25 HR's, but he is not going to push the offense into bold new high-scoring places. But that's okay- healthy seasons from top producers Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell (YES PAT BURRELL), and Jimmy Rollins means a potent offense and plenty of support for the pitching staff.
And the pitching staff is going to need it. Obviously there are high hopes for another great season from Cole Hamels and the return to starting of Brett Myers. But after that, things get buggy. Jamie Moyer is a savvy vet, and old war-horse, and not totally decrepit at 45 but is coming off his worst season since 2004. Kyle Kendrick did an amazing job last year and is fun to prank but will have a hard time duplicating that success now that's he's a known commodity. And Adam Eaton fucking sucks.
In the bullpen, new closer Brad Lidge of course is starting the season on the DL because the Phillies' training staff is on the Mets' payroll (conspiracy theory in development). This leaves the closing duties to Tom Gordon, who was so ineffective last season that he was only the 4th best reliever on the Philadelphia Phillies. JC Romero, he of the 1.24 ERA with the Phils in '07, is as streaky as decent relievers get. Evidence of his streakiness- his career ERA is 4.30, but he's never had a single season with an ERA in the 4's. They're all higher or lower. Expect something a little closer to, but hopefully not higher than, that career ERA number from him this season. Ryan Madson started pitching very well before he got hurt last year; hopefully he used a bookmark so he can easily pick up where he left off. And other than that, the 'pen is full of unproven and below average stuff, like an Old Navy store.
As far as intangibles go, you can expect them to be very good when the Phillies are winning, and very poor when the Phillies are losing. It's frigging sports; teams have fun when they are winning and are miserable when they're losing.
Overall, after last year's amazing run the expectations for the Phillies this season are extremely high. But the reality is they're in a tough division and have a pitching staff of dubious quality. This sums it up- the Mets went out and got Johan Santana; the Phillies went out and got Kris and Anna Benson. Advantage- Mets (unless you're really into bitchy right-wing women with huge racks). Put the questionable pitching together with the Phillies explosive offense, and they're an 87 win team. A few things break right, and they'll win 90.
And that's my final predicition- 90 wins, and the Wild Card spot. Go Phils.
Friday, March 7, 2008
Adam Eaton
People and things that would do better as the Phillies' fifth starter rather than Adam Eaton will-
JD Durbin
Kris Benson, even with his girl first name
62 year old Dock Ellis and a shitload of LSD
The remains of Cory Lidle, if there were any
My cat Sammy
Casper the Friendly Ghost (real one, not the cartoon)
A batting practice machine on medium speed
Please, Adam, go on the DL. And then go away.
JD Durbin
Kris Benson, even with his girl first name
62 year old Dock Ellis and a shitload of LSD
The remains of Cory Lidle, if there were any
My cat Sammy
Casper the Friendly Ghost (real one, not the cartoon)
A batting practice machine on medium speed
Please, Adam, go on the DL. And then go away.
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