Your 2008 Philadelphia Phillies

It's opening day, so what the fuck, here's a Phillies preview.

They're not winning the division. Hey, if they do win it again, that's great, and it'll be a drunk and happy time if they do. But with the Mets adding the best pitcher in the world to their already good team and the Braves looking like they'll win more than 84 games this year, the Phils are going to be in a massively bloody and gory battle, replete with missing limbs and infected pus-filled wounds, for the division, let alone the Wild Card.

Offensively, they're in very good shape, although it'll be hard to match last season's incredible 892 runs scored unless MLB suddenly allows DH's in the NL. Their 2008 PECOTA projection is 839 runs scored, and who can argue with the mighty PECOTA program? No one. The Phils should have one of the top three offenses in the NL, as they usually do. The loss of Aaron Rowand's offense will be countered by the addition of Geoff Jenkins (vs. RHP anyway) and increased playing time for Jayson Werth. And the loss of Rowand's grit will be countered by the addition of grits to the players' pre-game meal. Also, reports that Pedro Feliz is an upgrade on offense are as inaccurate as Willie Green from 3 point range. He's 32 and has a career OBP of .288. Yeah, he'll hit 25 HR's, but he is not going to push the offense into bold new high-scoring places. But that's okay- healthy seasons from top producers Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell (YES PAT BURRELL), and Jimmy Rollins means a potent offense and plenty of support for the pitching staff.

And the pitching staff is going to need it. Obviously there are high hopes for another great season from Cole Hamels and the return to starting of Brett Myers. But after that, things get buggy. Jamie Moyer is a savvy vet, and old war-horse, and not totally decrepit at 45 but is coming off his worst season since 2004. Kyle Kendrick did an amazing job last year and is fun to prank but will have a hard time duplicating that success now that's he's a known commodity. And Adam Eaton fucking sucks.

In the bullpen, new closer Brad Lidge of course is starting the season on the DL because the Phillies' training staff is on the Mets' payroll (conspiracy theory in development). This leaves the closing duties to Tom Gordon, who was so ineffective last season that he was only the 4th best reliever on the Philadelphia Phillies. JC Romero, he of the 1.24 ERA with the Phils in '07, is as streaky as decent relievers get. Evidence of his streakiness- his career ERA is 4.30, but he's never had a single season with an ERA in the 4's. They're all higher or lower. Expect something a little closer to, but hopefully not higher than, that career ERA number from him this season. Ryan Madson started pitching very well before he got hurt last year; hopefully he used a bookmark so he can easily pick up where he left off. And other than that, the 'pen is full of unproven and below average stuff, like an Old Navy store.

As far as intangibles go, you can expect them to be very good when the Phillies are winning, and very poor when the Phillies are losing. It's frigging sports; teams have fun when they are winning and are miserable when they're losing.

Overall, after last year's amazing run the expectations for the Phillies this season are extremely high. But the reality is they're in a tough division and have a pitching staff of dubious quality. This sums it up- the Mets went out and got Johan Santana; the Phillies went out and got Kris and Anna Benson. Advantage- Mets (unless you're really into bitchy right-wing women with huge racks). Put the questionable pitching together with the Phillies explosive offense, and they're an 87 win team. A few things break right, and they'll win 90.

And that's my final predicition- 90 wins, and the Wild Card spot. Go Phils.