When you deal your organization's top positional prospect, the return has to be better than Joe Blanton. At his best, Blanton is a 2/3 who will "eat innings" but still doesn't strike a lot of guys out. At his worst, he is a slight upgrade over Adam Eaton. His career road ERA of 4.78 is frightening. And there was no reason to throw in Outman as well. Thanks Pat Gillick and enjoy retirement.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
The Zo Spin Zone
From Todd Zolecki's blog regarding the Joe Blanton deal (which reads a lot like an employee of the Phillies wrote):
Take away his four worst starts this season and he has a 3.58 ERA,
This is what we refer to as "cherrypicking". When you have a sample size of 200 starts, maybe you can point to four starts as an aberration. When you have a sample size of 20 starts, pulling out four starts equates to 20% of Blanton's performance. Would you justify a batter's first half performance by removing 60 at bats? Of course not. So why do it with a pitcher?
But if you're going to play this game, you can look at it from a lot of different angles.
Take away Joe Blanton's four best starts this season and he has a 5.82 ERA.
Take away Adam Eaton's four worst starts this season and he has a 4.15 ERA.
Take away Cole Hamels' four worst starts this season and he has a 2.10 ERA.
THIS IS WHY YOU DON'T REMOVE 20% OF YOUR SAMPLE SIZE.
I liked the pun I used for the title.
Take away his four worst starts this season and he has a 3.58 ERA,
This is what we refer to as "cherrypicking". When you have a sample size of 200 starts, maybe you can point to four starts as an aberration. When you have a sample size of 20 starts, pulling out four starts equates to 20% of Blanton's performance. Would you justify a batter's first half performance by removing 60 at bats? Of course not. So why do it with a pitcher?
But if you're going to play this game, you can look at it from a lot of different angles.
Take away Joe Blanton's four best starts this season and he has a 5.82 ERA.
Take away Adam Eaton's four worst starts this season and he has a 4.15 ERA.
Take away Cole Hamels' four worst starts this season and he has a 2.10 ERA.
THIS IS WHY YOU DON'T REMOVE 20% OF YOUR SAMPLE SIZE.
I liked the pun I used for the title.
David Murphy on Matt Holliday in the DN today-
Matt Holliday, outfielder Colorado- We won't bore you with the stats. OK, yes, we will: .337 batting average, .421 on-base percentage, 14 home runs, 51 RBI. Holliday is a stud.
I'd like to make a correction to his statement that Holliday is some sort of male horse who breeds with female horses- Holliday is a stud ONLY AT COORS FIELD. For his career, he has an impressive Home OPS of 1.086, but a pedestrian Away OPS of .790. Sure, a little bit of that can be blamed on the fact that he has to play a lot of away games at Petco Park and Dodger Stadium, but those splits show his overall stats are more a product of the thin Colorado air rather than massive studliness.
And this goes on throughout their lineup- Todd Helton has a career Home OPS of 1.114 (!) and an Away OPS of .888 (good, but not ! good). Garrett Atkins, a player most Phillies fans would love to have at the hot corner, has a career .934 Home OPS and a .765 career Away OPS. Brad Hawpe, amazingly, bucks the trend- his career Home OPS is .876 and Away it is only .32 points lower. Yorvit Torrealba was a terrible hitter before he went to Colorado... and, well, still is.
Now, the Phillies also play in a park known as hitter friendly. But their splits aren't nearly as severe as the Rockies. Chase Utley has a career Home OPS of .945 and an Away OPS of .867. Ryan Howard- .984 Home, .962 Away. Pat Burrell has almost identical splits- .858 Home and .859 Away (although he did play in the Vet for a few years). Rollins also played in the Vet, and his Home OPS is .800, Away .747. And last year in his MVP season, he had a Home OPS of .892 and an Away OPS of .859. Not a huge gap there.
Perhaps the best example of the Coors Field effect is Vinny Castilla. The guy put up a bunch of 30-40 HR season for the Rockies in the 90's, left and struggled in ATL, TB, and HOU for a couple years, then in 2004 goes back to COL and hits 35 dongs and 43 doubles at 36 years old. The next year in WAS, he hit 12 HR in 494 AB. Larry Walker's another one- he was Superman when he played for Colorado, but was a mere Green Arrow or Booster Gold on Montreal and St. Louis. Dante Bichette's another one who was just plain average outside of Coors. And the list goes on.
The point of all this, of course, is screw the Rockies, and be glad that they absolutely suck this year. Losers.
*I realize that Castilla and Walker are "pre-Coors Field humidor" guys. But it doesn't change much. Holliday has played his entire career in the Colorado post-humidor world.
Matt Holliday, outfielder Colorado- We won't bore you with the stats. OK, yes, we will: .337 batting average, .421 on-base percentage, 14 home runs, 51 RBI. Holliday is a stud.
I'd like to make a correction to his statement that Holliday is some sort of male horse who breeds with female horses- Holliday is a stud ONLY AT COORS FIELD. For his career, he has an impressive Home OPS of 1.086, but a pedestrian Away OPS of .790. Sure, a little bit of that can be blamed on the fact that he has to play a lot of away games at Petco Park and Dodger Stadium, but those splits show his overall stats are more a product of the thin Colorado air rather than massive studliness.
And this goes on throughout their lineup- Todd Helton has a career Home OPS of 1.114 (!) and an Away OPS of .888 (good, but not ! good). Garrett Atkins, a player most Phillies fans would love to have at the hot corner, has a career .934 Home OPS and a .765 career Away OPS. Brad Hawpe, amazingly, bucks the trend- his career Home OPS is .876 and Away it is only .32 points lower. Yorvit Torrealba was a terrible hitter before he went to Colorado... and, well, still is.
Now, the Phillies also play in a park known as hitter friendly. But their splits aren't nearly as severe as the Rockies. Chase Utley has a career Home OPS of .945 and an Away OPS of .867. Ryan Howard- .984 Home, .962 Away. Pat Burrell has almost identical splits- .858 Home and .859 Away (although he did play in the Vet for a few years). Rollins also played in the Vet, and his Home OPS is .800, Away .747. And last year in his MVP season, he had a Home OPS of .892 and an Away OPS of .859. Not a huge gap there.
Perhaps the best example of the Coors Field effect is Vinny Castilla. The guy put up a bunch of 30-40 HR season for the Rockies in the 90's, left and struggled in ATL, TB, and HOU for a couple years, then in 2004 goes back to COL and hits 35 dongs and 43 doubles at 36 years old. The next year in WAS, he hit 12 HR in 494 AB. Larry Walker's another one- he was Superman when he played for Colorado, but was a mere Green Arrow or Booster Gold on Montreal and St. Louis. Dante Bichette's another one who was just plain average outside of Coors. And the list goes on.
The point of all this, of course, is screw the Rockies, and be glad that they absolutely suck this year. Losers.
*I realize that Castilla and Walker are "pre-Coors Field humidor" guys. But it doesn't change much. Holliday has played his entire career in the Colorado post-humidor world.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Who is Jimmy Rollins?
From Sam Donnellon’s piece in today’s DN on Jimmy Rollins’ inconsistency at the plate-
This season, when Rollins has scored, the record is 21-7.
So they’re 21-7 because Jimmy Rollins scored? No. Obviously his point is Rollins needs to get on base for the Phillies to be at their best. But why pick on Jimmy for not being on base more often? It’s no secret that it’s just not a big part of his game.
Jimmy Rollins is a very good player. Awesome power for his size, outstanding speed, a very good fielder, and just the right amount of cockiness (usually). But he is not a great leadoff hitter. His current OBP of .340 is actually better than his career OBP of .332, and is close to his OBP last season of .344. So the “problem” with Jimmy isn’t that he suddenly isn’t getting on base; the problem is he’s NEVER excelled at getting on base. He’s very ordinary and average when it comes to that.
In fact, the one thing he did significantly better than usual last year had nothing to do with just getting on base; it was getting extra bases when he hit. His SLG of .531 last year is 90 points better than his career SLG of .441. And lo and behold- his SLG this year is .438, right around his career average. Jimmy hasn’t fallen apart; he’s just having an average year by his standards. It's who Jimmy is.
This season, when Rollins has scored, the record is 21-7.
So they’re 21-7 because Jimmy Rollins scored? No. Obviously his point is Rollins needs to get on base for the Phillies to be at their best. But why pick on Jimmy for not being on base more often? It’s no secret that it’s just not a big part of his game.
Jimmy Rollins is a very good player. Awesome power for his size, outstanding speed, a very good fielder, and just the right amount of cockiness (usually). But he is not a great leadoff hitter. His current OBP of .340 is actually better than his career OBP of .332, and is close to his OBP last season of .344. So the “problem” with Jimmy isn’t that he suddenly isn’t getting on base; the problem is he’s NEVER excelled at getting on base. He’s very ordinary and average when it comes to that.
In fact, the one thing he did significantly better than usual last year had nothing to do with just getting on base; it was getting extra bases when he hit. His SLG of .531 last year is 90 points better than his career SLG of .441. And lo and behold- his SLG this year is .438, right around his career average. Jimmy hasn’t fallen apart; he’s just having an average year by his standards. It's who Jimmy is.
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