Lifespans of the Rich and Famous- Running Back Career Edition

NFL contract details are a bit much to digest. There's all this talk of guaranteed money, salary caps, paternity suit allowances, performance bonii, etc. But when Brian Westbrook, the soon to be 29 year old Pro Bowl, All-Pro, All-American, Al-Jazeera star of the Eagles' backfield, and his new agent Scrooge McDuck decide they want $30 million in guaranteed money in a 5 year deal, it's easy to see that this is not rational or sensical.

Westbrook is indeed the key to the Eagles offense. He is to it as Cole Hamels+Brad Lidge+Chase Utley (aka Cobrase Utlidels) is to the Phillies. He's that damn good. According to Football Outsiders, he was the second most valuable RB in the NFL last year, just a smidgen behind LaDanian Tomlinson. He ranked a very strong seventh in 2006. And yet within 3 years (at most), chances are he'll be washed up.

Such is life as an NFL running back. According to super-scientific research done by those same Football Outsiders and others, no other position on the field suffers as much from age and injuries. By age 30, most running backs, even the ones who still have their original knees, are running full speed into the imminent retirement wall, which has a nice mural of Marshall Faulk, Earl Campbell, Terrell Davis, and Roger Craig playing shuffleboard painted on it. Westbrook turns 29 on September 4th. Odds are that by Sept. 4, 2010 he'll be on his way out of the NFL.

Obviously he can avoid this probability. Fred Taylor seems to have gotten over his early career injury problems and is better than ever at age 32. Curtis Martin played well until age 78. Emmitt Smith was only mildly embarrassing as a player after 30, and nowhere near as embarrassing as he is as a commentator. He should get public speaking lessons from his step-daughter's bio-dad, Martin Lawrence. Outrageous things he would say! Anyway, the peculiar thing about probability is that when things are probable, they probably happen. And there is a probable probability that he's only got 2 or maybe 3 good seasons left. Certainly not 5.

There are things working to Westbrook's advantage. He was underused as a runner for the first 4 years of his career, so he doesn't have the mileage of several of the 30 year old washouts. Also he now wears a gypsy shrunken head charm that protects his knees. It's worked pretty well the past 2 years.

Westbrook does deserve a big pay check for the next 2 years. Anything longer and there's a good chance (yes, it is a chance, not a certainty) it will cripple the team after he breaks down. As a business, they always should pay for the performance they're expecting, not just the performance they've gotten. Perhaps they could compromise and offer something like 3 years, $20 million guaranteed. That seems like a fair deal (to me anyway, since I only make $5 million a year and know how hard it is), and would not only make him extremely highly paid for his position but would also prevent the Eagles from over-investing in Westbrook; not neccessarily in money, but in time.

Fixing the stupid Eagles

As evidenced by the loss to Dallas Sunday night, the Eagles are not very good right now. Of course, Dallas is an awesome team. They are a team so good that they don’t even have to help my fantasy football team and start their best running back. But if they can’t even make a game of it at home against hated rival Dallas (hated by the fans anyway), how can they compete against anyone? They are in turmoil. But what to do what to do? Addressed here are 3 common sentiments that have been read/heard in the past few days about how to fix the Eagles.

Fire Andy Reid

Perhaps this is not so crazy, and it's the only one of the 3 sentiments I can agree with. If a team with talent is not performing, the coach is usually the prime suspect as to why. But he shouldn't be let go because the BS going on with his anus-pill loving sons is limiting his ability to focus (a garbage theory), but because maybe he’s no longer capable of outcoaching his competitors. A lot of folks will tell you he never was anyway, but the fact is that the Eagles have had a good offense for much of Reid’s tenure. Now it seems though that many teams have figured his game plans out and he refuses to/can’t adapt. And then there are the accusations of stupid play calls and poor clock management, which have plagued his coaching career here. But the biggest knock on him this year, and one that is well deserved, is the ineptitude in the red zone. The Eagles rank 8th in the NFL in total yards and 20th in points. It’s a crude measurement of their non-success, but telling- and it’s also part of a 3-season trend.

Now, most of these charges have been leveled against him before around mid-season, which then resulted in a change in planning (or the planning started working well) and a late season surge into the playoffs. But with the crew they have now? This is unlikely. Even if Sacky McNabb and Co. play better (and they actually have not been as bad as many people think, other than the constant sacks), the secondary is still a mess and the special teams other than Akers make me gag like the kitten poo I’ve been cleaning up all week. But the biggest hurdle is that at 3-5, they have almost no room for error. But errors likely will be made. Like McNabb taking sacks. And playing the Patriots.

Of course if the Eagles turn it around and miraculously sneak into the playoffs, then Reid’s job will likely be safe. But if they finish 6-10 again like 2005? They’ll probably fire him, or he’ll be poisoned by an angry fan. Everyone can blame Reid’s failure on the distraction caused by his two jailbird kids, but everyone should know it’s only because Andy Reid's coaching has apparently gotten stale.

There is another option I will be called a crazy person for suggesting- instead of firing Reid, maybe they should fire Jim Johnson. The guy is hailed as a genius, but the fact is the Eagles defense has been in a decline since 2004. From 2000-2004, the Eagles were in the top 5 in points allowed every season except 2003, when they were 7th. They haven’t been in the top-10 in PA since. Last year, they ranked 6th in points scored and 15th in points allowed. Part of that is injuries and personnel changes, but good coaches deal well with those. And fire Mornigwheg too.

Bench McNabb (and trade him after the season)

Screw the benching crap. You want to bench him for a rookie who the coach you all say can’t think straight says is the QB of the future? McNabb has been hit with so many sacks this year that he’s making Lance Bass jealous, but he hasn’t been as awful as everyone thinks throwing the ball. He’s just not readjusting to his new running limitations very well. Pulling him out now will not help him if he’s ever going to learn to play well again. Regarding the trade possibilities- I hate the idea of trading a perceived superstar, as you’ll see below.

Trade Westbrook

A terrible, terrible idea. He’s the best player on the team. And they’ll never get decent value for him in a trade. A few people seem to have this dream of trading Westbrook for a massive package of draft picks, a la Herschel Walker or Ricky Williams. Not happening. Too many teams learned from those mistakes, and pulling off a big trade in the NFL is a much different proposition than in the other leagues. He also has 3 years left on his contract and is actually still underpaid based on his performance, making him worth having on their salary cap. He doesn’t even have a ton of mileage on him compared to other 6th year running backs. Trading him after this season would be more retarded than 1,000 retards acting retarded.

Dr. Pigskin's Prescriptions

Every (or at least this) week Dr. Pigskin prescribes the proper remedies to what ails the Eagles and/or one of the players. As well as posting here, Dr. Pigskin also calls his prescription in to the local CVS Pharmacist and has him deliver it to Lincoln Financial Field. No one ever questions Dr. Pigskin. Because, ladies and gentlemen, he is a doctor.

Today's Patient: The Philadelphia Eagles' Offense
Symptoms: Stagnant, Inability to Produce in the Red Zone, Wide Receivers Having Difficult Time Creating Separation, Just Not Very Good
Length of Symptoms: Two Weeks

Very interesting. You say you've been experiencing these symptoms for two weeks? And you're nervous that if you don't get better soon, your situation could become dire? Well don't you worry. Just follow my directions, and you'll be as good as ever by next Sunday. OK? Great. Now here is my prescription.

1. Run the Ball. Consistently. You have one of the best Center-Guard combinations in the NFL in Jamaal Jackson and Shaun Andrews, even if Andrews isn't completely healthy. You should be able to dictate the tempo running behind these two guys. No one is going to buy your play action fakes on second and third down if they don't actually believe you are going to run the ball. And while you are at it, maybe have Bryan Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter in the same backfield for a few plays a game. Put one of them in motion and see if the defense lines a safety or linebacker over them. This will create a little unpredictability which I think you could use right now.

2. Put Some Receivers in Motion. I hear that my dear old friend, Ron "Baby Button" (don't ask) Jaworski, also made this suggestion on Monday night. And I have to agree with Double B. If your wide receivers are having a tough time beating the bump off the line of scrimmage, then teams are going to keep jamming them. Add a little motion and force the defenders to play a few yards off of them. It can't hurt and may add some confidence to your receivers.

3. Use the Middle of the Field. I know, I know, your starting tight end, LJ Smith, is still recovering from an injury. But you have backup tight ends right? I'm not saying they need to be running down the seam every play, but at least get them involved in the offense. If the corners start to give the wide receivers some breathing room, have them run some slants as well. Until Donovan McNabb is completely healthy, you need to keep things simple and easy for him. Short routes in the middle of the field accomplish that task.

Sounds simple right? Well, it is. But the only way I can guarantee success is if you stick to the plan. If you try and self medicate or only use the plan for one half, you'll probably just regress to your current state. Hopefully it goes well, and I'll see you next week.