No, I am not talking about daytrading while under the influence. I be talking about Kyle Kendrick.
Kendrick's line tonight: 6 IP, 4 H, 5 BB, 4 K
If I were given solely those numbers, I would guess that he gave up three runs. Maybe he gets lucky and only gives up a run, maybe one of those two of those hits are three-run home runs. But a shutout? Seriously? It is like any sense of rationale baseball projections are thrown out when he gets on the mound.
Kendrick's record is now 10-5 and he sports a 4.37 ERA. At the beginning of the season I figured MLB hitters would figure him out and he would not repeat his success of 2007. While his ERA is higher than last year, his winning percentage is essentially the same. AND THIS BLOWS MY MIND. Pitchers that give up over a hit an inning, post a WHIP around 1.50, and don't strike anyone out should not win two out of three decisions, unless they are members of the pre-humidor Rockies. There is only one explanation for his success: luck.
All of this factors into my early campaign to convince the Phillies to sell high on Kyle Kendrick this offseason. Assuming he doesn't implode in the last two months of the season, Kendrick will most likely finish with 13-15 wins. There are plenty of GMs in baseball that are dumb enough to get hung up on his win total and completely ignore his peripherals. These are the teams that Gamarobuckle (soon to be Arbuckamaro?) should take advantage of. Kendrick's luck is eventually going to run out and it would obviously benefit the Phillies to move him before he literally turns into a pumpkin. Of course the Phillies have never been accused of this type of forward thinking and will probably end up buying him out of his arbitration years and his first two years of free agency. And overpay to do so.
Kendrick's line tonight: 6 IP, 4 H, 5 BB, 4 K
If I were given solely those numbers, I would guess that he gave up three runs. Maybe he gets lucky and only gives up a run, maybe one of those two of those hits are three-run home runs. But a shutout? Seriously? It is like any sense of rationale baseball projections are thrown out when he gets on the mound.
Kendrick's record is now 10-5 and he sports a 4.37 ERA. At the beginning of the season I figured MLB hitters would figure him out and he would not repeat his success of 2007. While his ERA is higher than last year, his winning percentage is essentially the same. AND THIS BLOWS MY MIND. Pitchers that give up over a hit an inning, post a WHIP around 1.50, and don't strike anyone out should not win two out of three decisions, unless they are members of the pre-humidor Rockies. There is only one explanation for his success: luck.
All of this factors into my early campaign to convince the Phillies to sell high on Kyle Kendrick this offseason. Assuming he doesn't implode in the last two months of the season, Kendrick will most likely finish with 13-15 wins. There are plenty of GMs in baseball that are dumb enough to get hung up on his win total and completely ignore his peripherals. These are the teams that Gamarobuckle (soon to be Arbuckamaro?) should take advantage of. Kendrick's luck is eventually going to run out and it would obviously benefit the Phillies to move him before he literally turns into a pumpkin. Of course the Phillies have never been accused of this type of forward thinking and will probably end up buying him out of his arbitration years and his first two years of free agency. And overpay to do so.
1 comment:
Here's a fun fact- his WHIP is higher than Myers. He just doesn't give up nearly as many home runs.
The walks are what's most unexpected from Kendrick this year. I also expected him to get hit more this year, and he is, but I didn't expect his walk totals to go up so much. He only has 6 2/3 IP more than his total last year right now, and has given up 16 more walks than all of last season.
His value is as a sinker ball pitcher with good control. But this year his control is average, and he's been very lucky.
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