NFL contract details are a bit much to digest. There's all this talk of guaranteed money, salary caps, paternity suit allowances, performance bonii, etc. But when Brian Westbrook, the soon to be 29 year old Pro Bowl, All-Pro, All-American, Al-Jazeera star of the Eagles' backfield, and his new agent Scrooge McDuck decide they want $30 million in guaranteed money in a 5 year deal, it's easy to see that this is not rational or sensical.
Westbrook is indeed the key to the Eagles offense. He is to it as Cole Hamels+Brad Lidge+Chase Utley (aka Cobrase Utlidels) is to the Phillies. He's that damn good. According to Football Outsiders, he was the second most valuable RB in the NFL last year, just a smidgen behind LaDanian Tomlinson. He ranked a very strong seventh in 2006. And yet within 3 years (at most), chances are he'll be washed up.
Such is life as an NFL running back. According to super-scientific research done by those same Football Outsiders and others, no other position on the field suffers as much from age and injuries. By age 30, most running backs, even the ones who still have their original knees, are running full speed into the imminent retirement wall, which has a nice mural of Marshall Faulk, Earl Campbell, Terrell Davis, and Roger Craig playing shuffleboard painted on it. Westbrook turns 29 on September 4th. Odds are that by Sept. 4, 2010 he'll be on his way out of the NFL.
Obviously he can avoid this probability. Fred Taylor seems to have gotten over his early career injury problems and is better than ever at age 32. Curtis Martin played well until age 78. Emmitt Smith was only mildly embarrassing as a player after 30, and nowhere near as embarrassing as he is as a commentator. He should get public speaking lessons from his step-daughter's bio-dad, Martin Lawrence. Outrageous things he would say! Anyway, the peculiar thing about probability is that when things are probable, they probably happen. And there is a probable probability that he's only got 2 or maybe 3 good seasons left. Certainly not 5.
There are things working to Westbrook's advantage. He was underused as a runner for the first 4 years of his career, so he doesn't have the mileage of several of the 30 year old washouts. Also he now wears a gypsy shrunken head charm that protects his knees. It's worked pretty well the past 2 years.
Westbrook does deserve a big pay check for the next 2 years. Anything longer and there's a good chance (yes, it is a chance, not a certainty) it will cripple the team after he breaks down. As a business, they always should pay for the performance they're expecting, not just the performance they've gotten. Perhaps they could compromise and offer something like 3 years, $20 million guaranteed. That seems like a fair deal (to me anyway, since I only make $5 million a year and know how hard it is), and would not only make him extremely highly paid for his position but would also prevent the Eagles from over-investing in Westbrook; not neccessarily in money, but in time.
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