Sunday, June 3, 2007

I Cry Fudge


I don't like being wrong when it comes to baseball. But whenever you have opinions on a sport that involve predictions on unknown outcomes, you are going to be wrong once in awhile. But what I really hate is the combination of being wrong on a subject and ignorant fools being right. And in the case of one Pat Burrell, that is starting to look like it is the case.

After a sizzling start to the season, Burrell has been in an atrocious slump since around April 25. In May he hit .179/.360/.410. For the season, his batting average is .225 and his slugging percentage is an ungodly .388. Yes his OBP is still at .388, which leads the team, but this team needs him to have an OPS of .880 if he is going to hit out of the five hole. If it didn't completely defy conventional wisdom, I would actually like to see him hit ahead of Utley and Howard in the 2 hole. Because on nights that Helms/Barajas are hitting behind him, him being on base does not matter that much. In the field, he is what he is: a below average fielder with little mobility due to his previous injuries.

Should Burrell be traded? Well, I don't think this current Phillies team is going to make the playoffs and Burrell is signifcantly overpaid, so I definitely would not be opposed to it. It is not like the Abreu situation, where they could get more for him if they waited til the offseason. Unless Old Man Gillick is lying, the trade market for Pat Burrell is not exactly bullish. If they can find a team that is willing to take on the remainder of his contract, that would be enough for me.

Dennis Deitch from the Delaware County Daily Times had this to say about the #5 spot in the lineup:

The big question is, why? Why does Burrell continue to hit fifth? There would seem to be three players who could be considered as replacements for Burrell in that spot - Aaron Rowand, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino.

Rowand and Rollins have a few notable statistics on their side - for instance, that their slugging percentages (.495 and .496) are nearly 100 points better than Burrell's. While Victorino doesn't have a high slugging percentage (.378), he does have speed, and it would seem that putting a speedy player behind Howard in the order wouldn't be such a bad thing, since there were at least 58 instances last season where the guy hitting behind Howard came to the plate with the bases empty and thus would have an opportunity to steal a base if he reached first.

Rowand's SLG in May: .396
Rollins' SLG in May: .400

Both of which were lower than Burrell's bad SLG in May.

But the comment about Victorino is just mind blowing. You want to put a "speedy" hitter behind Howard because the object is to steal a base if no one is on? Victorino has already had over 120 at bats this year with the bases empty (God Jimmy Rollins stinks). So if you want Victorino to be up with the bases empty, why would you move him from his current position in the order?