Lifespans of the Rich and Famous- Running Back Career Edition

NFL contract details are a bit much to digest. There's all this talk of guaranteed money, salary caps, paternity suit allowances, performance bonii, etc. But when Brian Westbrook, the soon to be 29 year old Pro Bowl, All-Pro, All-American, Al-Jazeera star of the Eagles' backfield, and his new agent Scrooge McDuck decide they want $30 million in guaranteed money in a 5 year deal, it's easy to see that this is not rational or sensical.

Westbrook is indeed the key to the Eagles offense. He is to it as Cole Hamels+Brad Lidge+Chase Utley (aka Cobrase Utlidels) is to the Phillies. He's that damn good. According to Football Outsiders, he was the second most valuable RB in the NFL last year, just a smidgen behind LaDanian Tomlinson. He ranked a very strong seventh in 2006. And yet within 3 years (at most), chances are he'll be washed up.

Such is life as an NFL running back. According to super-scientific research done by those same Football Outsiders and others, no other position on the field suffers as much from age and injuries. By age 30, most running backs, even the ones who still have their original knees, are running full speed into the imminent retirement wall, which has a nice mural of Marshall Faulk, Earl Campbell, Terrell Davis, and Roger Craig playing shuffleboard painted on it. Westbrook turns 29 on September 4th. Odds are that by Sept. 4, 2010 he'll be on his way out of the NFL.

Obviously he can avoid this probability. Fred Taylor seems to have gotten over his early career injury problems and is better than ever at age 32. Curtis Martin played well until age 78. Emmitt Smith was only mildly embarrassing as a player after 30, and nowhere near as embarrassing as he is as a commentator. He should get public speaking lessons from his step-daughter's bio-dad, Martin Lawrence. Outrageous things he would say! Anyway, the peculiar thing about probability is that when things are probable, they probably happen. And there is a probable probability that he's only got 2 or maybe 3 good seasons left. Certainly not 5.

There are things working to Westbrook's advantage. He was underused as a runner for the first 4 years of his career, so he doesn't have the mileage of several of the 30 year old washouts. Also he now wears a gypsy shrunken head charm that protects his knees. It's worked pretty well the past 2 years.

Westbrook does deserve a big pay check for the next 2 years. Anything longer and there's a good chance (yes, it is a chance, not a certainty) it will cripple the team after he breaks down. As a business, they always should pay for the performance they're expecting, not just the performance they've gotten. Perhaps they could compromise and offer something like 3 years, $20 million guaranteed. That seems like a fair deal (to me anyway, since I only make $5 million a year and know how hard it is), and would not only make him extremely highly paid for his position but would also prevent the Eagles from over-investing in Westbrook; not neccessarily in money, but in time.

Stop The Madness!

The Matt Holliday trade talk will not go away. So one more time, here is the case against trading Shane Victorino, Carlos Carrasco, JA Happ, and Lou Marson for a package of the possibly overrated Holliday and pitcher Brian Fuentes, who actually is a pretty awesome reliever but will be a free agent after this season.

Holliday's overall career numbers-
642 games, .321/.385/.556, 119 HR, 450 RBI (for those who deeply care about RBI)

Career HOME numbers AGAIN-
331 games, .363/.426/.659, 80 HR, 289 RBI

Career AWAY numbers-
311 games, .277/.341/.449, 39 HR, 161 RBI

Holliday at CBP-
a very small sample size of 59 PA, .283/.356/.547, 4 HR

For argument's sake, let us pretend that those last numbers actually approximate what he would put up for the Phillies (an OPS of .900 or so). That would still be pretty darn good, and way better than his current career numbers outside of Coors Field. Even then, it is questionable whether it is worth further gutting the farm system by giving away the guy who projects to be the Phillies No. 2 starter by 2010 (Carrasco, not Happ), a good catching prospect for a team that desperately needs a catcher, and a starter whose minor league performance shows that he may actually be better than the guy who projects to be the No. 2 starter in 2010 (this is Happ). And while Victorino may be a fan favorite because he's fast and people are led to believe he wears a hula skirt and eats poi in the clubhouse, he is actually expendable. Sorry, Spam lovers.

There is another issue with Holliday, albeit a smaller one- where does he play? The guy has only played LF his entire career, and that's where Man Machine Burrell lives. Obviously, if they do acquire Holliday they can always put him in RF and move him back to LF when the cheap-ass Phillies don't re-sign Burrell after this season's crushing playoff defeat. But what about the remainder of this year? Moving Holliday from LF to RF isn't like moving Ryan Howard to SS, but it would force him to perform in an unnatural position, which is fine for pornography, sure. But in baseball, not so good.

It's become obvious they need some help on offense. And since the Phils won't do simple things like STOP BATTING JIMMY ROLLINS LEADOFF or STOP PULLING BURRELL FROM EVERY CLOSE GAME or GO BACK IN TIME AND RE-SIGN AARON ROWAND, they probably do need to acquire another bat to make up for the damage that Geoff Jenkins, Pedro Feliz, and Carlos Ruiz cause to the offense. And that player will likely have to come in the form of an outfielder. The questionable call here is whether Holliday is the bat they need and whether the cost for his services is too high. As the supposed deal on the table is structured now, it probably is.

75 Words on the Blanton Deal

When you deal your organization's top positional prospect, the return has to be better than Joe Blanton. At his best, Blanton is a 2/3 who will "eat innings" but still doesn't strike a lot of guys out. At his worst, he is a slight upgrade over Adam Eaton. His career road ERA of 4.78 is frightening. And there was no reason to throw in Outman as well. Thanks Pat Gillick and enjoy retirement.

The Zo Spin Zone

From Todd Zolecki's blog regarding the Joe Blanton deal (which reads a lot like an employee of the Phillies wrote):

Take away his four worst starts this season and he has a 3.58 ERA,

This is what we refer to as "cherrypicking". When you have a sample size of 200 starts, maybe you can point to four starts as an aberration. When you have a sample size of 20 starts, pulling out four starts equates to 20% of Blanton's performance. Would you justify a batter's first half performance by removing 60 at bats? Of course not. So why do it with a pitcher?

But if you're going to play this game, you can look at it from a lot of different angles.

Take away Joe Blanton's four best starts this season and he has a 5.82 ERA.

Take away Adam Eaton's four worst starts this season and he has a 4.15 ERA.

Take away Cole Hamels' four worst starts this season and he has a 2.10 ERA.

THIS IS WHY YOU DON'T REMOVE 20% OF YOUR SAMPLE SIZE.

I liked the pun I used for the title.

David Murphy on Matt Holliday in the DN today-

Matt Holliday, outfielder Colorado- We won't bore you with the stats. OK, yes, we will: .337 batting average, .421 on-base percentage, 14 home runs, 51 RBI. Holliday is a stud.

I'd like to make a correction to his statement that Holliday is some sort of male horse who breeds with female horses- Holliday is a stud ONLY AT COORS FIELD. For his career, he has an impressive Home OPS of 1.086, but a pedestrian Away OPS of .790. Sure, a little bit of that can be blamed on the fact that he has to play a lot of away games at Petco Park and Dodger Stadium, but those splits show his overall stats are more a product of the thin Colorado air rather than massive studliness.

And this goes on throughout their lineup- Todd Helton has a career Home OPS of 1.114 (!) and an Away OPS of .888 (good, but not ! good). Garrett Atkins, a player most Phillies fans would love to have at the hot corner, has a career .934 Home OPS and a .765 career Away OPS. Brad Hawpe, amazingly, bucks the trend- his career Home OPS is .876 and Away it is only .32 points lower. Yorvit Torrealba was a terrible hitter before he went to Colorado... and, well, still is.

Now, the Phillies also play in a park known as hitter friendly. But their splits aren't nearly as severe as the Rockies. Chase Utley has a career Home OPS of .945 and an Away OPS of .867. Ryan Howard- .984 Home, .962 Away. Pat Burrell has almost identical splits- .858 Home and .859 Away (although he did play in the Vet for a few years). Rollins also played in the Vet, and his Home OPS is .800, Away .747. And last year in his MVP season, he had a Home OPS of .892 and an Away OPS of .859. Not a huge gap there.

Perhaps the best example of the Coors Field effect is Vinny Castilla. The guy put up a bunch of 30-40 HR season for the Rockies in the 90's, left and struggled in ATL, TB, and HOU for a couple years, then in 2004 goes back to COL and hits 35 dongs and 43 doubles at 36 years old. The next year in WAS, he hit 12 HR in 494 AB. Larry Walker's another one- he was Superman when he played for Colorado, but was a mere Green Arrow or Booster Gold on Montreal and St. Louis. Dante Bichette's another one who was just plain average outside of Coors. And the list goes on.

The point of all this, of course, is screw the Rockies, and be glad that they absolutely suck this year. Losers.

*I realize that Castilla and Walker are "pre-Coors Field humidor" guys. But it doesn't change much. Holliday has played his entire career in the Colorado post-humidor world.

Who is Jimmy Rollins?

From Sam Donnellon’s piece in today’s DN on Jimmy Rollins’ inconsistency at the plate-

This season, when Rollins has scored, the record is 21-7.

So they’re 21-7 because Jimmy Rollins scored? No. Obviously his point is Rollins needs to get on base for the Phillies to be at their best. But why pick on Jimmy for not being on base more often? It’s no secret that it’s just not a big part of his game.

Jimmy Rollins is a very good player. Awesome power for his size, outstanding speed, a very good fielder, and just the right amount of cockiness (usually). But he is not a great leadoff hitter. His current OBP of .340 is actually better than his career OBP of .332, and is close to his OBP last season of .344. So the “problem” with Jimmy isn’t that he suddenly isn’t getting on base; the problem is he’s NEVER excelled at getting on base. He’s very ordinary and average when it comes to that.

In fact, the one thing he did significantly better than usual last year had nothing to do with just getting on base; it was getting extra bases when he hit. His SLG of .531 last year is 90 points better than his career SLG of .441. And lo and behold- his SLG this year is .438, right around his career average. Jimmy hasn’t fallen apart; he’s just having an average year by his standards. It's who Jimmy is.

Elton B is President

To say the Elton Brand signing is exciting is an understatement, like saying Salma Hayek is okay looking or Jesse Jackson is kind of a jackass for wanting to cut off Obama’s nuts. He is easily the best post player here since Charles Barkley (sorry, Sharone Wright) and instantly makes the Sixers one of the top 4 teams in the East.

Obviously, this is all contingent on him being healthy, which several surgeons and holistic healers say he is. If this makes any sense, it’s actually more reassuring that the signing was made under the reign of Ed Stefanski rather than Billy King. First of all, Billy King never would have gotten the deal done because he would have already signed someone like Nenad Kristic or Balki from Perfect Strangers to a max deal. But there is also a reassuring aspect in the fact that Stefanski probably looked very closely at Brand’s health, whereas Billy King had no problems going after players who make a ton of money and only have one good leg. It’s far easier to trust Stefanski’s instincts than BK’s.

So what’s next for the revamped Sixers? Six consecutive titles? Appearances in Scooby Doo cartoons? Maybe, but probably not. Obviously their biggest need is someone who can shoot from more than 8 feet away from the net, and they don’t have a whole lot of money to play with to get someone like that. But moves can be made, and for now let us just thank the ghost of Billy King (what, he’s not dead?) for becoming ever less present in the Sixers front office and enjoy the beginning of a new era for Sixers basketball.

NOTE TO DESTROY THE OPTIMISM OF THIS POST: Elton Brand will probably only play 93 mediocre games as a Sixer before retiring due to injuries.