And not to say I told you so, but http://broadstreetbastards.blogspot.com/2008/12/myths-by-raul.html
Bring on the Kevin Kolb era
Sunday, July 4, 2010
Going Back In Time
I think I'm about through with the 2010 version of the Phillies. Too many injuries, an old left fielder who is pretty much through, and an under performing first baseman whose contract is going to be an albatross for the Phillies for the next few years.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Ryan Howard is Rich
In case you are a person that ignores mainstream media, underground media, alternative media, and the streets of Media and rely solely on the semi-annual updates of this blog for your Phillies news, let me be the one to tell you: Ryan Howard just robbed Citizen's Bank. The Phillies decided to give him a 5 year contract extension (note: Howard's current contract runs out after 2011) that is worth $125 Million and includes a $10 Million buyout after 2016.
Instead of getting my opinion on the contract, I called up my friends Point and Counterpoint to get their takes on the contract and engage them in a dialogue.
Point: Hey Cp, did you hear? The Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a 5 year deal. He's going to retire as a Phillie!
Counterpoint: And that's a good thing?
P: Ha, you're hilarious. Seriously, how is this contract a bad thing for the Phillies?
Cp: Well let's see. Ryan Howard will be 36 when this contract is over. They will be paying him $25 million a year in the last three years of the contract when he his performance will most likely be on the decline, possibly a steep one. Assuming their payroll is still around $125 million, the Phillies will allocating 20% of their budget for a first baseman on the bad side of 30.
P: That's it? But what about the homers.
Cp: You're right, he still hits homers. He'll most likely hit 40 plus home runs for the next few years and will reach 500 during the lifetime of the contract. But this isn't home run derby. His walk totals have gone down in the last four years, from 108 in 2006 to 75 in 2009. If you're hitting 40 home runs, it should be a piece of cake to get 100 BBs.
P: Eh, maybe, but he is still a feared hitter.
CP: Let's clarify that. Right handed pitchers fear him. The Alan Embrees of the world love seeing Howard step to the plate. He just can't hit left handed pitching any more. His performance has gone from good (.923 OPS in 2006) to average (.826 OPS in 2007) to bad (.746 OPS in 2008) to awful (.653 in 2009). This is an insanely scary trend, particularly as Howard ages and his bat speed slows down.
P: But the RIBBIES!!!
Cp: Have we gone back in time to 1986? The Phillies have the best offense in baseball. If he didn't drive in 120 runs a year, there would be something seriously wrong.
P: Won't it be great to see him retire as a Phillie?
Cp: I'm scared that by 2014, we'll all just want him to retire. Here are his Top 5 comparables at his age: Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn, Willie McCovey, and David Ortiz. Four of those guys didn't age well at all.
P: OK. So you don't like the contract.
Cp: You think?
P: What do you dislike more, the money or the years.
Cp: Both. Let's say the Phillies let Ryan Howard become a free agent in 2011. Does any team give him a contract even close to 5 years, $125 million? The Yankees have Texieria so they don't need a first baseman. The Red Sox will have figured out how to get Adrian Gonzalez by that point. The Cardinals will have to give a billion dollars to Pujols at the same time. So that leaves the Cubs, Dodgers, Mariners,and Angels as teams that would have the money to bid on Howard. Maybe Howard gets 4 years, $80 million from one of them, but no way he gets 5 years and $125 Million. AND THE PHILLIES WERE BIDDING AGAINST THEMSELVES.
P: But it's not your money.
Cp: You're right, it's not. But as a fan of the team, I don't want them spending this much of their payroll on a position that is easily replaceable when the money could be spent much smarter. This contract is going to be an albatross to the team in 2013-2016 and really kill their flexibility. You'd think they'd have learned from now.
P: I love you.
Well thanks guys for taking the time out of your busy lives and helping us out. We appreciate your service to this site and our country.
Instead of getting my opinion on the contract, I called up my friends Point and Counterpoint to get their takes on the contract and engage them in a dialogue.
Point: Hey Cp, did you hear? The Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a 5 year deal. He's going to retire as a Phillie!
Counterpoint: And that's a good thing?
P: Ha, you're hilarious. Seriously, how is this contract a bad thing for the Phillies?
Cp: Well let's see. Ryan Howard will be 36 when this contract is over. They will be paying him $25 million a year in the last three years of the contract when he his performance will most likely be on the decline, possibly a steep one. Assuming their payroll is still around $125 million, the Phillies will allocating 20% of their budget for a first baseman on the bad side of 30.
P: That's it? But what about the homers.
Cp: You're right, he still hits homers. He'll most likely hit 40 plus home runs for the next few years and will reach 500 during the lifetime of the contract. But this isn't home run derby. His walk totals have gone down in the last four years, from 108 in 2006 to 75 in 2009. If you're hitting 40 home runs, it should be a piece of cake to get 100 BBs.
P: Eh, maybe, but he is still a feared hitter.
CP: Let's clarify that. Right handed pitchers fear him. The Alan Embrees of the world love seeing Howard step to the plate. He just can't hit left handed pitching any more. His performance has gone from good (.923 OPS in 2006) to average (.826 OPS in 2007) to bad (.746 OPS in 2008) to awful (.653 in 2009). This is an insanely scary trend, particularly as Howard ages and his bat speed slows down.
P: But the RIBBIES!!!
Cp: Have we gone back in time to 1986? The Phillies have the best offense in baseball. If he didn't drive in 120 runs a year, there would be something seriously wrong.
P: Won't it be great to see him retire as a Phillie?
Cp: I'm scared that by 2014, we'll all just want him to retire. Here are his Top 5 comparables at his age: Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn, Willie McCovey, and David Ortiz. Four of those guys didn't age well at all.
P: OK. So you don't like the contract.
Cp: You think?
P: What do you dislike more, the money or the years.
Cp: Both. Let's say the Phillies let Ryan Howard become a free agent in 2011. Does any team give him a contract even close to 5 years, $125 million? The Yankees have Texieria so they don't need a first baseman. The Red Sox will have figured out how to get Adrian Gonzalez by that point. The Cardinals will have to give a billion dollars to Pujols at the same time. So that leaves the Cubs, Dodgers, Mariners,and Angels as teams that would have the money to bid on Howard. Maybe Howard gets 4 years, $80 million from one of them, but no way he gets 5 years and $125 Million. AND THE PHILLIES WERE BIDDING AGAINST THEMSELVES.
P: But it's not your money.
Cp: You're right, it's not. But as a fan of the team, I don't want them spending this much of their payroll on a position that is easily replaceable when the money could be spent much smarter. This contract is going to be an albatross to the team in 2013-2016 and really kill their flexibility. You'd think they'd have learned from now.
P: I love you.
Well thanks guys for taking the time out of your busy lives and helping us out. We appreciate your service to this site and our country.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Pitch or Die: The Jamie Moyer Story
I think Ruben Amaro is a pretty good General Manager. He sees that the current team has about another three year window, he understands the importance of a strong farm system, and he has a mancrush on Roy Halladay, like we all should. However, his Achilles Heel seems to be unending quest to give too many years to veteran players.
First, it was two years for Jamie Moyer's Cretaceous-era left arm, then it was three year contract for Raul Ibanez that will take him through his 39th birthday. And this past off-season it was three years for Placido Polanco. Fortunately for the Phillies, they have the flexibility with budget and minor league replacements that they can afford to make big mistakes like these. But it is still a disturbing trend.
I don't think I'd be going to far out on a limb to say that Moyer is cooked. He's obviously lasted longer than anyone could have ever imagined, and he should be applauded for his ability to be a major league pitcher into his late forties. But sending him out there every fifth day is basically telling the offense that they need to score a minimum of seven runs. No pressure.
So what can the Phillies do?
1. Release him and eat the $6-7 Million left on his contract. I don't think this will happen, particularly with the dearth of left handed relievers out there. Guys like Alan Embree and Eddie Guardado have kept their careers going just because of the arm they throw with, so they may be able to extract some return on their investment by putting him in the bullpen.
2. Kindly ask him to retire. Not a lot of incentive for Moyer to do this as the Phillies wouldn't have to pay him his cash, and his reaction to Pedro replacing him last year pretty much demonstrated that he's already become an old crank. Pretty much rule this one out.
3. Pitch Halladay every other day. I'm sure he could do it.
The good news is, the Phillies are good enough to keep running Moyer and Kendrick out there for a few more starts until Blanton is healthy and Pedro is ready to start pitching again. But until then, there are going to be some games that are difficult to watch.
First, it was two years for Jamie Moyer's Cretaceous-era left arm, then it was three year contract for Raul Ibanez that will take him through his 39th birthday. And this past off-season it was three years for Placido Polanco. Fortunately for the Phillies, they have the flexibility with budget and minor league replacements that they can afford to make big mistakes like these. But it is still a disturbing trend.
I don't think I'd be going to far out on a limb to say that Moyer is cooked. He's obviously lasted longer than anyone could have ever imagined, and he should be applauded for his ability to be a major league pitcher into his late forties. But sending him out there every fifth day is basically telling the offense that they need to score a minimum of seven runs. No pressure.
So what can the Phillies do?
1. Release him and eat the $6-7 Million left on his contract. I don't think this will happen, particularly with the dearth of left handed relievers out there. Guys like Alan Embree and Eddie Guardado have kept their careers going just because of the arm they throw with, so they may be able to extract some return on their investment by putting him in the bullpen.
2. Kindly ask him to retire. Not a lot of incentive for Moyer to do this as the Phillies wouldn't have to pay him his cash, and his reaction to Pedro replacing him last year pretty much demonstrated that he's already become an old crank. Pretty much rule this one out.
3. Pitch Halladay every other day. I'm sure he could do it.
The good news is, the Phillies are good enough to keep running Moyer and Kendrick out there for a few more starts until Blanton is healthy and Pedro is ready to start pitching again. But until then, there are going to be some games that are difficult to watch.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
In Depth World Series Preview
New York Yankees? More like New York STANKees!!! Am I right?
Phillies in 3.
Phillies in 3.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Three Quick Predictions About the Home Run Derby
1. I won't watch it.
2. There will be a number of similar blogs tomorrow that complain about Chris Berman. They will be very similar to the day-after the HR Derby posts from 2008 and 2007.
3. ESPN will work Mike & Mike into the broadcast in a clever, hilarious way.
2. There will be a number of similar blogs tomorrow that complain about Chris Berman. They will be very similar to the day-after the HR Derby posts from 2008 and 2007.
3. ESPN will work Mike & Mike into the broadcast in a clever, hilarious way.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
My Ears!
I hate Rick Sutcliffe. He adds nothing to any broadcast that he is a part of (at least when he is sober). But to make life worse, ESPN's broadcast geniuses figure he will be easier to listen to when paired with Berman. I hate you ESPN. Why can't Yahoo start a sports network?
Monday, April 6, 2009
Take Me Back to 2008
Phils lose. Hits would help.
Wish I could add more analysis of the game, but I didn't watch a pitch. In the past I could tolerate Jon Miller and Joe Morgan during ESPN games, though I would have to switch them off at times in order to cleanse my listening pallette. But the addition of Steve Phillips to the broadcast is too much for me to tolerate. So no Sunday night games for this guy. I'll try and catch them on Tuesday. CATCH THEM GET IT!!
Wish I could add more analysis of the game, but I didn't watch a pitch. In the past I could tolerate Jon Miller and Joe Morgan during ESPN games, though I would have to switch them off at times in order to cleanse my listening pallette. But the addition of Steve Phillips to the broadcast is too much for me to tolerate. So no Sunday night games for this guy. I'll try and catch them on Tuesday. CATCH THEM GET IT!!
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Welcome Back
We are back from resting season. At least I am. Jim still may be on the streets of New York looking for his mp3 player.
So what have we missed? Someone, most likely Adam Eaton, slipped some Krytonite into Cole Hamels' Campbell's Soup. This probably had something to do with Eaton being released (that and the fact that he is a terrible pitcher). Geoff Jenkins also got the boot so the Phillies could flirt with Gary Sheffield. Chan Ho Park will be in the Phillies starting rotation which would be exciting news if it was 2000. Other than that, it was a pretty quiet Spring in Clearwater.
Here are some quick predictions by yours truly:
Ryan Howard will finally get off to a hot start. He'll have 30 home runs by the All Star Break.
Chase Utley will struggle early because he came back too soon from his crazy hip surgery. I don't think I'm going out on too far of a limb with this one.
Brad Lidge will blow a save. In fact, he may blow two.
Pedro Feliz will cause me to consider throwing my laptop into the middle of the street.
Shane Victorino will post a .700 OPS, which will cause the Phillies to make a move for another outfielder.
The Phillies will end up winning 88 games, which will be good enough for the Wild Card. Unfortunately, the Mets will win the Division.
NL Predictions:
East: Mets
Central: Cubs
West: Diamondbacks
WC: Phillies
NL Winner: Diamondbacks
MVP other than Pujols: Prince Fielder
Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL Predictions:
East: Red Sox
Central: White Sox
West: Angels
WC: Rays
AL Winner: Red Sox
MVP: Grady Sizemore
Cy Young: Jon Lester
Unfortunately for most of us, the Red Sox will win the World Series.
Raul Ibanez might not be the player that Pat Burrell was, but he is definitely a much better actor.
So what have we missed? Someone, most likely Adam Eaton, slipped some Krytonite into Cole Hamels' Campbell's Soup. This probably had something to do with Eaton being released (that and the fact that he is a terrible pitcher). Geoff Jenkins also got the boot so the Phillies could flirt with Gary Sheffield. Chan Ho Park will be in the Phillies starting rotation which would be exciting news if it was 2000. Other than that, it was a pretty quiet Spring in Clearwater.
Here are some quick predictions by yours truly:
Ryan Howard will finally get off to a hot start. He'll have 30 home runs by the All Star Break.
Chase Utley will struggle early because he came back too soon from his crazy hip surgery. I don't think I'm going out on too far of a limb with this one.
Brad Lidge will blow a save. In fact, he may blow two.
Pedro Feliz will cause me to consider throwing my laptop into the middle of the street.
Shane Victorino will post a .700 OPS, which will cause the Phillies to make a move for another outfielder.
The Phillies will end up winning 88 games, which will be good enough for the Wild Card. Unfortunately, the Mets will win the Division.
NL Predictions:
East: Mets
Central: Cubs
West: Diamondbacks
WC: Phillies
NL Winner: Diamondbacks
MVP other than Pujols: Prince Fielder
Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL Predictions:
East: Red Sox
Central: White Sox
West: Angels
WC: Rays
AL Winner: Red Sox
MVP: Grady Sizemore
Cy Young: Jon Lester
Unfortunately for most of us, the Red Sox will win the World Series.
Raul Ibanez might not be the player that Pat Burrell was, but he is definitely a much better actor.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Myths by Raul
There are numerous people in the Philadelphia area who were overjoyed at the news of the Phillies signing Raul Ibanez, meaning the door has shut on the Pat Burrell era. I have issues with the signing, particularly the general idea of signing a 37 year old to a three year contract. That said, I think he will be an adequate replacement for Burrell in 2009.
That said, I strongly disagree with a lot of the hyperbole that has been thrown out by those who support the Ibanez deal. Such as......
Myth #1 - Raul Ibanez is a better hitter against left-handed pitching than Pat Burrell is.
In 2008, Ibanez had a career year hitting against left handers, putting up an OPS of .866. But every other year prior to '08, Ibanez had never even cracked .800 OPS against lefties. For his career, Ibanez is .268/.322/.411 against lefties. I would not be as concerned about these numbers if every lefthander over the age of 14 had not already figured out how to pitch to Ryan Howard.
Myth #2 - Raul Ibanez is a better hitter than Pat Burrell
If the year was 1983 and all we had were the back of baseball cards to argue with, then I would agree that with this Myth. But it isn't 1983, and only dopes use batting average and RBI to measure a hitter's production. In the last three years, Burrell has had an OPS+ of 122, 127, and 125. Ibanez has had OPS+ of 125, 121, 124. That is about as close as you can get in comparing two players over a three season span.
Myth #3 - Raul Ibanez is more consistent than Pat Burrell
I guess this comes down to your definition of consistency. People always would dwell on Burrell's hot and cold streaks, but just ignore the months where he put up numbers similar to his career stats. In 2008, both Burrell and Ibanez had two months with OPS under .800 and one month over 1.100. Same in 2007. Both players typically put up the same numbers on an annual basis. That is my definition of consistency.
Myth #4 - Raul Ibanez is less likely to decline than Pat Burrell
I am not a doctor and I haven't seen their medical records. But I have a difficult time believing that a 37 year old baseball player playing everyday does not present an injury risk, regardless of what great shape he is in. Getting old sucks.
Myth #5 - Losing a first round draft pick is not a big deal
This is an insane idea. And not only will the Phillies forfeit their first round pick by signing Ibanez, they also will not receive any compensation picks for Burrell because they did not offer him arbitration. Unless the Phillies plan on using that money to spend over slot for their additional picks, losing a first round draft pick is never a good idea.
I'm tired of typing. Type to listen to Barney Frank mumble and rumble. Welcome back us.
That said, I strongly disagree with a lot of the hyperbole that has been thrown out by those who support the Ibanez deal. Such as......
Myth #1 - Raul Ibanez is a better hitter against left-handed pitching than Pat Burrell is.
In 2008, Ibanez had a career year hitting against left handers, putting up an OPS of .866. But every other year prior to '08, Ibanez had never even cracked .800 OPS against lefties. For his career, Ibanez is .268/.322/.411 against lefties. I would not be as concerned about these numbers if every lefthander over the age of 14 had not already figured out how to pitch to Ryan Howard.
Myth #2 - Raul Ibanez is a better hitter than Pat Burrell
If the year was 1983 and all we had were the back of baseball cards to argue with, then I would agree that with this Myth. But it isn't 1983, and only dopes use batting average and RBI to measure a hitter's production. In the last three years, Burrell has had an OPS+ of 122, 127, and 125. Ibanez has had OPS+ of 125, 121, 124. That is about as close as you can get in comparing two players over a three season span.
Myth #3 - Raul Ibanez is more consistent than Pat Burrell
I guess this comes down to your definition of consistency. People always would dwell on Burrell's hot and cold streaks, but just ignore the months where he put up numbers similar to his career stats. In 2008, both Burrell and Ibanez had two months with OPS under .800 and one month over 1.100. Same in 2007. Both players typically put up the same numbers on an annual basis. That is my definition of consistency.
Myth #4 - Raul Ibanez is less likely to decline than Pat Burrell
I am not a doctor and I haven't seen their medical records. But I have a difficult time believing that a 37 year old baseball player playing everyday does not present an injury risk, regardless of what great shape he is in. Getting old sucks.
Myth #5 - Losing a first round draft pick is not a big deal
This is an insane idea. And not only will the Phillies forfeit their first round pick by signing Ibanez, they also will not receive any compensation picks for Burrell because they did not offer him arbitration. Unless the Phillies plan on using that money to spend over slot for their additional picks, losing a first round draft pick is never a good idea.
I'm tired of typing. Type to listen to Barney Frank mumble and rumble. Welcome back us.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
I'm already done enjoying it
Our self imposed ban during the playoffs is over. Let's get back to making fun of stuff.
Bill Conlin is a sap
TWENTY-EIGHT years vanished in the heartbeat it took for Brad Lidge to deliver one final, unhittable slider to Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz. Then, 1980 was suddenly 2008 and it was Lidge, not Tug McGraw, leaping joyously into the gelid South Philly air, and waiting for an avalanche of whooping teammates to engulf him. Brad sank to his knees in a spread-eagle prayer, beckoning toward Ruiz, who leaped into his arms.
I realize that times are tough for newspapers, but seriously Bill, this is no way to advertise your services to romance novel publishers. Send them a manuscript and they will get back to you. That is how it has always been done.
In what could be his final at-bat of the Phillies career he resuscitated with solid 2007-8 seasons, Pat Burrell began the eighth with a double to deep center that just missed leaving the Bank.
Pat Burrell's splits:
'05: .281/.389/.504
'06: .258/.388/.502
'07: .255/.400/.502
'08: .250/.367/.507
THESE ARE PRACTICALLY THE SAME. I don't understand this notion that Burrell became a different hitter the last two years.
History will record that Pedro Feliz, brilliant on defense all year but an offensive disappointment, drove in the winning run with a single to center off soft-tossing submariner Chad Bradford.
What was Conlin expecting of Pedro Feliz? That at age 33 he would suddenly turn into a different hitter, one that was patient at the plate? He did exactly as he was expected to. I expected something along the lines of .250/.300/.420 and he ended up a little short in the SLG department. Players don't suddenly get better at age 33, at least not in the post steroids era.
Lidge did not have his best stuff.
then
His drop-dead slider has had nastier bite. His fastball has had more late life.
Maybe Conlin was delirious when he sent his column in, which explains the obvious contradiction. And we know that the Inquirer and Daily News does not spend money on a sports editor.
Oh and congratulations to the Phillies. But I don't congratulate fans because you didn't do anything. Now don't burn the city down. Just Willie Green's house.
Bill Conlin is a sap
TWENTY-EIGHT years vanished in the heartbeat it took for Brad Lidge to deliver one final, unhittable slider to Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz. Then, 1980 was suddenly 2008 and it was Lidge, not Tug McGraw, leaping joyously into the gelid South Philly air, and waiting for an avalanche of whooping teammates to engulf him. Brad sank to his knees in a spread-eagle prayer, beckoning toward Ruiz, who leaped into his arms.
I realize that times are tough for newspapers, but seriously Bill, this is no way to advertise your services to romance novel publishers. Send them a manuscript and they will get back to you. That is how it has always been done.
In what could be his final at-bat of the Phillies career he resuscitated with solid 2007-8 seasons, Pat Burrell began the eighth with a double to deep center that just missed leaving the Bank.
Pat Burrell's splits:
'05: .281/.389/.504
'06: .258/.388/.502
'07: .255/.400/.502
'08: .250/.367/.507
THESE ARE PRACTICALLY THE SAME. I don't understand this notion that Burrell became a different hitter the last two years.
History will record that Pedro Feliz, brilliant on defense all year but an offensive disappointment, drove in the winning run with a single to center off soft-tossing submariner Chad Bradford.
What was Conlin expecting of Pedro Feliz? That at age 33 he would suddenly turn into a different hitter, one that was patient at the plate? He did exactly as he was expected to. I expected something along the lines of .250/.300/.420 and he ended up a little short in the SLG department. Players don't suddenly get better at age 33, at least not in the post steroids era.
Lidge did not have his best stuff.
then
His drop-dead slider has had nastier bite. His fastball has had more late life.
Maybe Conlin was delirious when he sent his column in, which explains the obvious contradiction. And we know that the Inquirer and Daily News does not spend money on a sports editor.
Oh and congratulations to the Phillies. But I don't congratulate fans because you didn't do anything. Now don't burn the city down. Just Willie Green's house.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
2008 NFL Predicitons
Because it'd be silly to share my 2018 NFL predictions, although I do have them ready (hint: the Raiders will be better), here they are for 2008.
On a sadder note, I can't access this damn blog from work any longer thanks to a new web blocking program which would make the North Korean government jealous, so I am trying to post at night. I haven't been around at night though, which makes that very difficult. Blargh, who cares, right? On to the picks-
NFC East-
Cowboys
Eagles
Giants
Redskins
NFC North-
Vikings
Bears
Packers
Lions
NFC South-
Panthers
Saints
Bucs
Falcons
NFC West-
Seahawks
Who gives a shit?
Wild Cards- Eagles and Saints
AFC East-
Pats
Bills
Jets
Fins
AFC North-
Browns
Steelers
Bengals
Ravens
AFC South-
Jags
Colts
Texans
Titans
AFC West-
Chargers
Chiefs
Broncos
Raiders
Wild Cards- Colts and Bills
NFC Champs- Vikings
AFC Champs- Chargers
SB Champs- Chargers, thus ending the universe (see the Norv Turner Theory of Heat Death)
On a sadder note, I can't access this damn blog from work any longer thanks to a new web blocking program which would make the North Korean government jealous, so I am trying to post at night. I haven't been around at night though, which makes that very difficult. Blargh, who cares, right? On to the picks-
NFC East-
Cowboys
Eagles
Giants
Redskins
NFC North-
Vikings
Bears
Packers
Lions
NFC South-
Panthers
Saints
Bucs
Falcons
NFC West-
Seahawks
Who gives a shit?
Wild Cards- Eagles and Saints
AFC East-
Pats
Bills
Jets
Fins
AFC North-
Browns
Steelers
Bengals
Ravens
AFC South-
Jags
Colts
Texans
Titans
AFC West-
Chargers
Chiefs
Broncos
Raiders
Wild Cards- Colts and Bills
NFC Champs- Vikings
AFC Champs- Chargers
SB Champs- Chargers, thus ending the universe (see the Norv Turner Theory of Heat Death)
Thursday, August 21, 2008
No Country for a Crappy Team Like Washington
Wow, how about that Brett Myers? With the exception of his first game back from his banishment to the minors, he has been outstanding. He now has a better ERA than Kyle Kendrick, which means everyone should be turning on Kyle very shortly. In other pitching pariah news, Adam Eaton gave up 6 runs in 6 IP last night in Reading because he sucks.
Speaking of turning on people, this whole Jimmy Rollins thing is ridiculous. A year ago, he was the most popular athlete in the city after his boasting about the Phils being the team to beat and his MVP-like performance. This year, he may as well be a DHS employee running a dog fighting ring out of a crack house. Part of that is his performance, which has been subpar. And his comment about Philly fans being front runners is still pissing people off even though it is TRUE. Just the fact that there was and still is such an uproar over his comments only serves to help prove what a bunch of over-emotional whiners and doomsayers Philly fans can be. And yes, I include myself in that.
Speaking of turning on people, this whole Jimmy Rollins thing is ridiculous. A year ago, he was the most popular athlete in the city after his boasting about the Phils being the team to beat and his MVP-like performance. This year, he may as well be a DHS employee running a dog fighting ring out of a crack house. Part of that is his performance, which has been subpar. And his comment about Philly fans being front runners is still pissing people off even though it is TRUE. Just the fact that there was and still is such an uproar over his comments only serves to help prove what a bunch of over-emotional whiners and doomsayers Philly fans can be. And yes, I include myself in that.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
You want it, you got it
Charlie Manuel on the Phillies offensive problems-
"I'm puzzled by it," he said. "I'm open for suggestions. I'll listen to what anybody's got to say. Fans. Cab drivers. President Bush. Anybody."
Well, Charles, here are a few suggestions for an offense that has gone .202/.303/.351 for the month of August-
1. Stop batting Jimmy Rollins leadoff.
In his last 8 games, Jimmy "Boo Berry" Rollins has an overall OBP of .167. His OBP for the season leading off the game or an inning is .243. It's hard to set the table well when the silverware is tarnished and the dinner plates are moldy and disgusting. The solution here is simple- try Shane Victorino. He has a career .347 OBP when leading off a game or inning, which is not great but is a huge improvement over Jimmy, who has never been great as a leadoff hitter; sadly, other than last season, he hasn't been great batting in any other slot either.
2. Ryan Howard should not be batting cleanup vs. lefties.
Even batting him 7th would be questionable this season. He has a career OPS vs. LHP of .744. This year, it's a robust .587. Lefties have learned that if they have any kind of decent breaking ball, Howard is an easy out.
3. The Geoff Jenkins experiment has failed.
He was supposed to be a RHP hitting specialist, but the only thing he has specialized in this year is making outs. He has a .724 OPS vs. RHP this year, and has been atrocious since August 6th, although he's hardly alone in that. Jayson Werth hits both lefties and righties better than Jenkins at this point.
4. Try batting Burrell 2nd, or 3rd or 4th (especially vs. LHP,) more often.
Ryan Howard isn't protecting him anymore, and there's no one below him in the order to drive him in when he walks, which is often. Look, Burrell is not going to be a 140 RBI a year guy. But he is a guy with a great knack for getting on base. Use that to your advantage rather than watching the Jenkins/Feliz/Bruntlett/Coste/Ruiz/Dobbs casserole continually struggle to get him home.
5. Get on their asses.
Look, there is something seriously wrong here. No sane, enlightened person would have believed that this team would rank 5th in ERA and 4th in runs per game at August 19th, but here they are. You're the manager Charlie. Act like it.
Here are starting lineups Charlie should consider. They may seem a little wild, but hopefully they are better than President Bush's suggestions-
vs. RHP
1. Victorino
2. Burrell
3. Utley
4. Howard
5. Rollins
6. Werth/Jenkins
7. Feliz
8. Ruiz
vs. LHP
1. Victorino
2. Utley
3. Werth
4. Burrell
5. Rollins
6. Feliz
7. Howard
8. Ruiz/Coste
"I'm puzzled by it," he said. "I'm open for suggestions. I'll listen to what anybody's got to say. Fans. Cab drivers. President Bush. Anybody."
Well, Charles, here are a few suggestions for an offense that has gone .202/.303/.351 for the month of August-
1. Stop batting Jimmy Rollins leadoff.
In his last 8 games, Jimmy "Boo Berry" Rollins has an overall OBP of .167. His OBP for the season leading off the game or an inning is .243. It's hard to set the table well when the silverware is tarnished and the dinner plates are moldy and disgusting. The solution here is simple- try Shane Victorino. He has a career .347 OBP when leading off a game or inning, which is not great but is a huge improvement over Jimmy, who has never been great as a leadoff hitter; sadly, other than last season, he hasn't been great batting in any other slot either.
2. Ryan Howard should not be batting cleanup vs. lefties.
Even batting him 7th would be questionable this season. He has a career OPS vs. LHP of .744. This year, it's a robust .587. Lefties have learned that if they have any kind of decent breaking ball, Howard is an easy out.
3. The Geoff Jenkins experiment has failed.
He was supposed to be a RHP hitting specialist, but the only thing he has specialized in this year is making outs. He has a .724 OPS vs. RHP this year, and has been atrocious since August 6th, although he's hardly alone in that. Jayson Werth hits both lefties and righties better than Jenkins at this point.
4. Try batting Burrell 2nd, or 3rd or 4th (especially vs. LHP,) more often.
Ryan Howard isn't protecting him anymore, and there's no one below him in the order to drive him in when he walks, which is often. Look, Burrell is not going to be a 140 RBI a year guy. But he is a guy with a great knack for getting on base. Use that to your advantage rather than watching the Jenkins/Feliz/Bruntlett/Coste/Ruiz/Dobbs casserole continually struggle to get him home.
5. Get on their asses.
Look, there is something seriously wrong here. No sane, enlightened person would have believed that this team would rank 5th in ERA and 4th in runs per game at August 19th, but here they are. You're the manager Charlie. Act like it.
Here are starting lineups Charlie should consider. They may seem a little wild, but hopefully they are better than President Bush's suggestions-
vs. RHP
1. Victorino
2. Burrell
3. Utley
4. Howard
5. Rollins
6. Werth/Jenkins
7. Feliz
8. Ruiz
vs. LHP
1. Victorino
2. Utley
3. Werth
4. Burrell
5. Rollins
6. Feliz
7. Howard
8. Ruiz/Coste
Theo Ratliff is back
Ah, a return to the glory days of early summer 2001. When men were men, no one thought Muslim terrorists would do something as crazy as crash hijacked planes into buildings, and the Sixers were playing for the NBA championship with a lineup of Allen Iverson plus 11 other guys, one of whom was Theo Ratliff.
Ratliff signed a 1-year deal with the Sixers yesterday in a move to add big man depth. With Jason Smith on the DL for an extended stay and Marreese Speights being a rookie, they needed someone to strengthen the middle. And as a bonus perhaps he can act as a mentor to young Marreese, teaching him the fine but possibly unteachable art of blocking a ton of shots.
The problem with the signing (and of course there is one) is that Ratliff is as fragile as a Russia/Georgia peace agreement. He's only played 28 games over the past 2 years. Amazingly, he's only played 705 games in his 13 year career, and never played more than 57 in any of his 3 seasons with the Sixers. If he goes down early in the year, or is just so rusty that he's ineffective, then the whole signing will be for naught. But the hope is that he can recapture some of the magic that helped make the 2000-2001 Sixers one of the most improbable championship contenders of my lifetime.
Ratliff signed a 1-year deal with the Sixers yesterday in a move to add big man depth. With Jason Smith on the DL for an extended stay and Marreese Speights being a rookie, they needed someone to strengthen the middle. And as a bonus perhaps he can act as a mentor to young Marreese, teaching him the fine but possibly unteachable art of blocking a ton of shots.
The problem with the signing (and of course there is one) is that Ratliff is as fragile as a Russia/Georgia peace agreement. He's only played 28 games over the past 2 years. Amazingly, he's only played 705 games in his 13 year career, and never played more than 57 in any of his 3 seasons with the Sixers. If he goes down early in the year, or is just so rusty that he's ineffective, then the whole signing will be for naught. But the hope is that he can recapture some of the magic that helped make the 2000-2001 Sixers one of the most improbable championship contenders of my lifetime.
Friday, August 15, 2008
More Stuff about More Things
Jimmy Rollins Hates You
Or at least thinks that you are a frontrunner, whatever the sam heck that means. By saying this on The Best Damn Sports Show on TV That You'll Ever See and You're Lucky You Get To See It So Shut Up and Listen, he apparently enraged a majority of Phillies fans. Honestly, when you start taking yourself seriously as a "fan", it is time for you to step back and re-prioritize what is important in your life. Who gives a shit what Jimmy Rollins thinks about the fans? He has a right to his opinion just like I have a right to my opinion that Rollins had a career year in '07 and will most likely never put up those numbers again. If this comment really has you hot and bothered, put the phone down, turn your radio off, and pick up a book. Not a magazine, but a book. Open it up and read it. You will thank me later.
Andre Igoudala Is 8% Closer to Being a Billionaire
The Sixers have opened the bank this offseason, giving out almost $200 Million in contracts. Hopefully this professional basketball league thing takes off so they can afford to pay these guys. Is it a lot of scratch for Iguodala? Yes and the Sixers most likely overpaid, especially since they were bidding against themselves. But in the end, it most likely won't matter if they are paying him $60 million or $80 million for the next six years because they are going to be over the salary cap anyways with Brand, Dalembert, Williams, and TYoung. That is your Sixers core for the next five years and hopefully Speights as well. Hoo rah Ed Stefanski. Hoo rah indeed.
The Sixers Will Play One Final Game At the Spectrum
And if you get a ticket before I do, I will punch you in the foot. I must go to this game.
It's Not Always Sunny in Philadelphia
I turned on FOX last night at like 7:45 Lucky People Time, expecting to see exciting Eagles/Panthers action, but to my chagring fourth graders were answering trivia questiong. I guess Lightning is a Jeff Foxworth fan (and who can blame him). Once they started playing, I didn't really pay much attention because most of the good players were just doing their best not to get hurt. I do still hate Joe Buck, though.
Or at least thinks that you are a frontrunner, whatever the sam heck that means. By saying this on The Best Damn Sports Show on TV That You'll Ever See and You're Lucky You Get To See It So Shut Up and Listen, he apparently enraged a majority of Phillies fans. Honestly, when you start taking yourself seriously as a "fan", it is time for you to step back and re-prioritize what is important in your life. Who gives a shit what Jimmy Rollins thinks about the fans? He has a right to his opinion just like I have a right to my opinion that Rollins had a career year in '07 and will most likely never put up those numbers again. If this comment really has you hot and bothered, put the phone down, turn your radio off, and pick up a book. Not a magazine, but a book. Open it up and read it. You will thank me later.
Andre Igoudala Is 8% Closer to Being a Billionaire
The Sixers have opened the bank this offseason, giving out almost $200 Million in contracts. Hopefully this professional basketball league thing takes off so they can afford to pay these guys. Is it a lot of scratch for Iguodala? Yes and the Sixers most likely overpaid, especially since they were bidding against themselves. But in the end, it most likely won't matter if they are paying him $60 million or $80 million for the next six years because they are going to be over the salary cap anyways with Brand, Dalembert, Williams, and TYoung. That is your Sixers core for the next five years and hopefully Speights as well. Hoo rah Ed Stefanski. Hoo rah indeed.
The Sixers Will Play One Final Game At the Spectrum
And if you get a ticket before I do, I will punch you in the foot. I must go to this game.
It's Not Always Sunny in Philadelphia
I turned on FOX last night at like 7:45 Lucky People Time, expecting to see exciting Eagles/Panthers action, but to my chagring fourth graders were answering trivia questiong. I guess Lightning is a Jeff Foxworth fan (and who can blame him). Once they started playing, I didn't really pay much attention because most of the good players were just doing their best not to get hurt. I do still hate Joe Buck, though.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Stuff about things
Regarding Kyle Kendrick BS- as usual, we were right and everyone else on this big blue marble we call earth was completely and utterly wrong.
Other Phillies garbage- Ryan Howard went 0-5 last night in the Phillies 8-6 loss. Everyone thought a month ago that Howard had returned to his normal form, but his numbers since then have been pretty nonformical- 24 games, .242/.308/.389, with just 4 HR and 2 doubles. And those awful errors. At least Utley seems to be putting himself back in MVP contention.
Eagles crap- good job by the Birds on making Brian Westbrook a happy camper (GET IT?) without mortgaging the team's future financial flexibility. Even though the deal looks a little long at first glance, its structure makes it easier to part with Westbrook should he prove to be like 80% of other NFL running backs and becomes ineffective as a runner by age 31.
Olympics hoohah- UPDATE- Beating Angola by 21 points is wholly unimpressive. The US men's team is now just 12 for 45 from 3-point range in 2 games. They needed better outside shooting and defense than 2004 and it looks like they didn't do a good job of getting it. China and Angola were their two easiest games.
India won its first ever gold medal yesterday in Men's shooting, which unbelievably is not dominated by the US. Maybe if the targets were human we'd do better. Anyway, there are 1 billion people in India, and this is the first time any one of them has been the best in the world at any Olympic sport. Get out of the call centers and onto the practice fields and into the pools, India. Your country needs you.
Michael Phelps' training includes eating 8,000-10,000 calories per day. The only downside is he has to swim a lot.
Best discovery of the Olympics so far- this hot Chinese beach volleyball player, Xue Chen-
Other Phillies garbage- Ryan Howard went 0-5 last night in the Phillies 8-6 loss. Everyone thought a month ago that Howard had returned to his normal form, but his numbers since then have been pretty nonformical- 24 games, .242/.308/.389, with just 4 HR and 2 doubles. And those awful errors. At least Utley seems to be putting himself back in MVP contention.
Eagles crap- good job by the Birds on making Brian Westbrook a happy camper (GET IT?) without mortgaging the team's future financial flexibility. Even though the deal looks a little long at first glance, its structure makes it easier to part with Westbrook should he prove to be like 80% of other NFL running backs and becomes ineffective as a runner by age 31.
Olympics hoohah- UPDATE- Beating Angola by 21 points is wholly unimpressive. The US men's team is now just 12 for 45 from 3-point range in 2 games. They needed better outside shooting and defense than 2004 and it looks like they didn't do a good job of getting it. China and Angola were their two easiest games.
India won its first ever gold medal yesterday in Men's shooting, which unbelievably is not dominated by the US. Maybe if the targets were human we'd do better. Anyway, there are 1 billion people in India, and this is the first time any one of them has been the best in the world at any Olympic sport. Get out of the call centers and onto the practice fields and into the pools, India. Your country needs you.
Michael Phelps' training includes eating 8,000-10,000 calories per day. The only downside is he has to swim a lot.
Best discovery of the Olympics so far- this hot Chinese beach volleyball player, Xue Chen-
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Selling High
No, I am not talking about daytrading while under the influence. I be talking about Kyle Kendrick.
Kendrick's line tonight: 6 IP, 4 H, 5 BB, 4 K
If I were given solely those numbers, I would guess that he gave up three runs. Maybe he gets lucky and only gives up a run, maybe one of those two of those hits are three-run home runs. But a shutout? Seriously? It is like any sense of rationale baseball projections are thrown out when he gets on the mound.
Kendrick's record is now 10-5 and he sports a 4.37 ERA. At the beginning of the season I figured MLB hitters would figure him out and he would not repeat his success of 2007. While his ERA is higher than last year, his winning percentage is essentially the same. AND THIS BLOWS MY MIND. Pitchers that give up over a hit an inning, post a WHIP around 1.50, and don't strike anyone out should not win two out of three decisions, unless they are members of the pre-humidor Rockies. There is only one explanation for his success: luck.
All of this factors into my early campaign to convince the Phillies to sell high on Kyle Kendrick this offseason. Assuming he doesn't implode in the last two months of the season, Kendrick will most likely finish with 13-15 wins. There are plenty of GMs in baseball that are dumb enough to get hung up on his win total and completely ignore his peripherals. These are the teams that Gamarobuckle (soon to be Arbuckamaro?) should take advantage of. Kendrick's luck is eventually going to run out and it would obviously benefit the Phillies to move him before he literally turns into a pumpkin. Of course the Phillies have never been accused of this type of forward thinking and will probably end up buying him out of his arbitration years and his first two years of free agency. And overpay to do so.
Kendrick's line tonight: 6 IP, 4 H, 5 BB, 4 K
If I were given solely those numbers, I would guess that he gave up three runs. Maybe he gets lucky and only gives up a run, maybe one of those two of those hits are three-run home runs. But a shutout? Seriously? It is like any sense of rationale baseball projections are thrown out when he gets on the mound.
Kendrick's record is now 10-5 and he sports a 4.37 ERA. At the beginning of the season I figured MLB hitters would figure him out and he would not repeat his success of 2007. While his ERA is higher than last year, his winning percentage is essentially the same. AND THIS BLOWS MY MIND. Pitchers that give up over a hit an inning, post a WHIP around 1.50, and don't strike anyone out should not win two out of three decisions, unless they are members of the pre-humidor Rockies. There is only one explanation for his success: luck.
All of this factors into my early campaign to convince the Phillies to sell high on Kyle Kendrick this offseason. Assuming he doesn't implode in the last two months of the season, Kendrick will most likely finish with 13-15 wins. There are plenty of GMs in baseball that are dumb enough to get hung up on his win total and completely ignore his peripherals. These are the teams that Gamarobuckle (soon to be Arbuckamaro?) should take advantage of. Kendrick's luck is eventually going to run out and it would obviously benefit the Phillies to move him before he literally turns into a pumpkin. Of course the Phillies have never been accused of this type of forward thinking and will probably end up buying him out of his arbitration years and his first two years of free agency. And overpay to do so.
Steve Jeltz and other such men
Even to a 7 year old, it was pretty obvious that Steve Jeltz was one of the worst everyday players in baseball. An average fielder (on his good days), Jeltz was spectacularly bad at the plate. A switch-hitter, he gained no advantage from hitting from either side of the plate. He hit just 1 home run in his first 5 seasons (1,726 plate appearances) as a Phillie. He had a career batting average of .210 and was just 18 of 28 stealing bases for his career. Only 4 players since 1920 have more than 2000 career PA and a career SLG lower than Jeltz (.268), including the immortal Rafael Belliard. Amazing to think he once homered twice in one game (from both sides of the plate) since he was roughly as powerful as a sleeping toddler.
But looking over his numbers again, there is something surprising- Jeltzy took walks. Why would you ever throw the guy a ball? But he had a career OBP of .308- not impressive until you consider the .210 career BA. He actually averaged 55 BB per 162 games played, which is amazing when you consider he had almost zero ability with the bat. His career OPS+ gets a little boost from his inexplicable ability to draw walks. In fact, he's not even the worst Phillie in this category. Here, for fun, is a list of the 8 all-time worst Phillies hitters since 1930 as ranked by OPS+ (minimum 1500 PA as a Phillie). Obviously, it's shortstop heavy-
1. Bobby Wine- 59
I know he was a Gold Glove winning SS, but was his defense good enough to make up for this? I'll go find a crazed old man to ask.
2. Steve Jeltz- 64
Jeltz certainly did not play defense well enough to make up for this.
3. Denny Doyle- 66
Another defensive specialist, but at 2B. He became a better hitter after he left the Phillies in 1974. Shocking, I know.
4. Kevin Jordan- 68
This one mildly shocked me. I remember him as a being a pretty good hitting utility infielder. But he racked disciprine at the plate (I have permission from my girlfriend to mock Asian pronunciation).
5. Larry Bowa- 72
Picked up where Bobby Wine left off. Easily leads this list with over 7,000 PA as a Phillie and in Gold Gloves with 2. Fortunately for his nephew, he did not impart the secret knowledge of how to swing at the first pitch 90% of the time.
6. Ruben Amaro, Sr.- 74
The Bobby Wine of the Amaro family. Even platooned with Wine and still won a GG.
7. Ivan de Jesus- 78
Only played 3 years for the Phillies. Could hit a bit and took some walks, just had zero power. Traded by the Cubs for Larry Bowa and some prospect. And as we all know, that prospect was Julio Franco. Wait, wrong one. JD Drew. Nope. Peter Forsberg. Wrong sport. Ah, Ryne Sandberg.
8. Doug Glanville- 79
The worst non-infielder on the list. Hey, remember when he hit .325 that one year? Most of his years were nothing fucking like that. At least he could run. There is a theory that he was the prototype for Juan Pierre.
Honorable mention- Marlon Anderson (80), David Bell (84), Clay Dalrymple (84), Charlie Hayes (85), Kevin Stocker (85)
But looking over his numbers again, there is something surprising- Jeltzy took walks. Why would you ever throw the guy a ball? But he had a career OBP of .308- not impressive until you consider the .210 career BA. He actually averaged 55 BB per 162 games played, which is amazing when you consider he had almost zero ability with the bat. His career OPS+ gets a little boost from his inexplicable ability to draw walks. In fact, he's not even the worst Phillie in this category. Here, for fun, is a list of the 8 all-time worst Phillies hitters since 1930 as ranked by OPS+ (minimum 1500 PA as a Phillie). Obviously, it's shortstop heavy-
1. Bobby Wine- 59
I know he was a Gold Glove winning SS, but was his defense good enough to make up for this? I'll go find a crazed old man to ask.
2. Steve Jeltz- 64
Jeltz certainly did not play defense well enough to make up for this.
3. Denny Doyle- 66
Another defensive specialist, but at 2B. He became a better hitter after he left the Phillies in 1974. Shocking, I know.
4. Kevin Jordan- 68
This one mildly shocked me. I remember him as a being a pretty good hitting utility infielder. But he racked disciprine at the plate (I have permission from my girlfriend to mock Asian pronunciation).
5. Larry Bowa- 72
Picked up where Bobby Wine left off. Easily leads this list with over 7,000 PA as a Phillie and in Gold Gloves with 2. Fortunately for his nephew, he did not impart the secret knowledge of how to swing at the first pitch 90% of the time.
6. Ruben Amaro, Sr.- 74
The Bobby Wine of the Amaro family. Even platooned with Wine and still won a GG.
7. Ivan de Jesus- 78
Only played 3 years for the Phillies. Could hit a bit and took some walks, just had zero power. Traded by the Cubs for Larry Bowa and some prospect. And as we all know, that prospect was Julio Franco. Wait, wrong one. JD Drew. Nope. Peter Forsberg. Wrong sport. Ah, Ryne Sandberg.
8. Doug Glanville- 79
The worst non-infielder on the list. Hey, remember when he hit .325 that one year? Most of his years were nothing fucking like that. At least he could run. There is a theory that he was the prototype for Juan Pierre.
Honorable mention- Marlon Anderson (80), David Bell (84), Clay Dalrymple (84), Charlie Hayes (85), Kevin Stocker (85)
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