There are numerous people in the Philadelphia area who were overjoyed at the news of the Phillies signing Raul Ibanez, meaning the door has shut on the Pat Burrell era. I have issues with the signing, particularly the general idea of signing a 37 year old to a three year contract. That said, I think he will be an adequate replacement for Burrell in 2009.
That said, I strongly disagree with a lot of the hyperbole that has been thrown out by those who support the Ibanez deal. Such as......
Myth #1 - Raul Ibanez is a better hitter against left-handed pitching than Pat Burrell is.
In 2008, Ibanez had a career year hitting against left handers, putting up an OPS of .866. But every other year prior to '08, Ibanez had never even cracked .800 OPS against lefties. For his career, Ibanez is .268/.322/.411 against lefties. I would not be as concerned about these numbers if every lefthander over the age of 14 had not already figured out how to pitch to Ryan Howard.
Myth #2 - Raul Ibanez is a better hitter than Pat Burrell
If the year was 1983 and all we had were the back of baseball cards to argue with, then I would agree that with this Myth. But it isn't 1983, and only dopes use batting average and RBI to measure a hitter's production. In the last three years, Burrell has had an OPS+ of 122, 127, and 125. Ibanez has had OPS+ of 125, 121, 124. That is about as close as you can get in comparing two players over a three season span.
Myth #3 - Raul Ibanez is more consistent than Pat Burrell
I guess this comes down to your definition of consistency. People always would dwell on Burrell's hot and cold streaks, but just ignore the months where he put up numbers similar to his career stats. In 2008, both Burrell and Ibanez had two months with OPS under .800 and one month over 1.100. Same in 2007. Both players typically put up the same numbers on an annual basis. That is my definition of consistency.
Myth #4 - Raul Ibanez is less likely to decline than Pat Burrell
I am not a doctor and I haven't seen their medical records. But I have a difficult time believing that a 37 year old baseball player playing everyday does not present an injury risk, regardless of what great shape he is in. Getting old sucks.
Myth #5 - Losing a first round draft pick is not a big deal
This is an insane idea. And not only will the Phillies forfeit their first round pick by signing Ibanez, they also will not receive any compensation picks for Burrell because they did not offer him arbitration. Unless the Phillies plan on using that money to spend over slot for their additional picks, losing a first round draft pick is never a good idea.
I'm tired of typing. Type to listen to Barney Frank mumble and rumble. Welcome back us.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
I'm already done enjoying it
Our self imposed ban during the playoffs is over. Let's get back to making fun of stuff.
Bill Conlin is a sap
TWENTY-EIGHT years vanished in the heartbeat it took for Brad Lidge to deliver one final, unhittable slider to Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz. Then, 1980 was suddenly 2008 and it was Lidge, not Tug McGraw, leaping joyously into the gelid South Philly air, and waiting for an avalanche of whooping teammates to engulf him. Brad sank to his knees in a spread-eagle prayer, beckoning toward Ruiz, who leaped into his arms.
I realize that times are tough for newspapers, but seriously Bill, this is no way to advertise your services to romance novel publishers. Send them a manuscript and they will get back to you. That is how it has always been done.
In what could be his final at-bat of the Phillies career he resuscitated with solid 2007-8 seasons, Pat Burrell began the eighth with a double to deep center that just missed leaving the Bank.
Pat Burrell's splits:
'05: .281/.389/.504
'06: .258/.388/.502
'07: .255/.400/.502
'08: .250/.367/.507
THESE ARE PRACTICALLY THE SAME. I don't understand this notion that Burrell became a different hitter the last two years.
History will record that Pedro Feliz, brilliant on defense all year but an offensive disappointment, drove in the winning run with a single to center off soft-tossing submariner Chad Bradford.
What was Conlin expecting of Pedro Feliz? That at age 33 he would suddenly turn into a different hitter, one that was patient at the plate? He did exactly as he was expected to. I expected something along the lines of .250/.300/.420 and he ended up a little short in the SLG department. Players don't suddenly get better at age 33, at least not in the post steroids era.
Lidge did not have his best stuff.
then
His drop-dead slider has had nastier bite. His fastball has had more late life.
Maybe Conlin was delirious when he sent his column in, which explains the obvious contradiction. And we know that the Inquirer and Daily News does not spend money on a sports editor.
Oh and congratulations to the Phillies. But I don't congratulate fans because you didn't do anything. Now don't burn the city down. Just Willie Green's house.
Bill Conlin is a sap
TWENTY-EIGHT years vanished in the heartbeat it took for Brad Lidge to deliver one final, unhittable slider to Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz. Then, 1980 was suddenly 2008 and it was Lidge, not Tug McGraw, leaping joyously into the gelid South Philly air, and waiting for an avalanche of whooping teammates to engulf him. Brad sank to his knees in a spread-eagle prayer, beckoning toward Ruiz, who leaped into his arms.
I realize that times are tough for newspapers, but seriously Bill, this is no way to advertise your services to romance novel publishers. Send them a manuscript and they will get back to you. That is how it has always been done.
In what could be his final at-bat of the Phillies career he resuscitated with solid 2007-8 seasons, Pat Burrell began the eighth with a double to deep center that just missed leaving the Bank.
Pat Burrell's splits:
'05: .281/.389/.504
'06: .258/.388/.502
'07: .255/.400/.502
'08: .250/.367/.507
THESE ARE PRACTICALLY THE SAME. I don't understand this notion that Burrell became a different hitter the last two years.
History will record that Pedro Feliz, brilliant on defense all year but an offensive disappointment, drove in the winning run with a single to center off soft-tossing submariner Chad Bradford.
What was Conlin expecting of Pedro Feliz? That at age 33 he would suddenly turn into a different hitter, one that was patient at the plate? He did exactly as he was expected to. I expected something along the lines of .250/.300/.420 and he ended up a little short in the SLG department. Players don't suddenly get better at age 33, at least not in the post steroids era.
Lidge did not have his best stuff.
then
His drop-dead slider has had nastier bite. His fastball has had more late life.
Maybe Conlin was delirious when he sent his column in, which explains the obvious contradiction. And we know that the Inquirer and Daily News does not spend money on a sports editor.
Oh and congratulations to the Phillies. But I don't congratulate fans because you didn't do anything. Now don't burn the city down. Just Willie Green's house.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
2008 NFL Predicitons
Because it'd be silly to share my 2018 NFL predictions, although I do have them ready (hint: the Raiders will be better), here they are for 2008.
On a sadder note, I can't access this damn blog from work any longer thanks to a new web blocking program which would make the North Korean government jealous, so I am trying to post at night. I haven't been around at night though, which makes that very difficult. Blargh, who cares, right? On to the picks-
NFC East-
Cowboys
Eagles
Giants
Redskins
NFC North-
Vikings
Bears
Packers
Lions
NFC South-
Panthers
Saints
Bucs
Falcons
NFC West-
Seahawks
Who gives a shit?
Wild Cards- Eagles and Saints
AFC East-
Pats
Bills
Jets
Fins
AFC North-
Browns
Steelers
Bengals
Ravens
AFC South-
Jags
Colts
Texans
Titans
AFC West-
Chargers
Chiefs
Broncos
Raiders
Wild Cards- Colts and Bills
NFC Champs- Vikings
AFC Champs- Chargers
SB Champs- Chargers, thus ending the universe (see the Norv Turner Theory of Heat Death)
On a sadder note, I can't access this damn blog from work any longer thanks to a new web blocking program which would make the North Korean government jealous, so I am trying to post at night. I haven't been around at night though, which makes that very difficult. Blargh, who cares, right? On to the picks-
NFC East-
Cowboys
Eagles
Giants
Redskins
NFC North-
Vikings
Bears
Packers
Lions
NFC South-
Panthers
Saints
Bucs
Falcons
NFC West-
Seahawks
Who gives a shit?
Wild Cards- Eagles and Saints
AFC East-
Pats
Bills
Jets
Fins
AFC North-
Browns
Steelers
Bengals
Ravens
AFC South-
Jags
Colts
Texans
Titans
AFC West-
Chargers
Chiefs
Broncos
Raiders
Wild Cards- Colts and Bills
NFC Champs- Vikings
AFC Champs- Chargers
SB Champs- Chargers, thus ending the universe (see the Norv Turner Theory of Heat Death)
Thursday, August 21, 2008
No Country for a Crappy Team Like Washington
Wow, how about that Brett Myers? With the exception of his first game back from his banishment to the minors, he has been outstanding. He now has a better ERA than Kyle Kendrick, which means everyone should be turning on Kyle very shortly. In other pitching pariah news, Adam Eaton gave up 6 runs in 6 IP last night in Reading because he sucks.
Speaking of turning on people, this whole Jimmy Rollins thing is ridiculous. A year ago, he was the most popular athlete in the city after his boasting about the Phils being the team to beat and his MVP-like performance. This year, he may as well be a DHS employee running a dog fighting ring out of a crack house. Part of that is his performance, which has been subpar. And his comment about Philly fans being front runners is still pissing people off even though it is TRUE. Just the fact that there was and still is such an uproar over his comments only serves to help prove what a bunch of over-emotional whiners and doomsayers Philly fans can be. And yes, I include myself in that.
Speaking of turning on people, this whole Jimmy Rollins thing is ridiculous. A year ago, he was the most popular athlete in the city after his boasting about the Phils being the team to beat and his MVP-like performance. This year, he may as well be a DHS employee running a dog fighting ring out of a crack house. Part of that is his performance, which has been subpar. And his comment about Philly fans being front runners is still pissing people off even though it is TRUE. Just the fact that there was and still is such an uproar over his comments only serves to help prove what a bunch of over-emotional whiners and doomsayers Philly fans can be. And yes, I include myself in that.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
You want it, you got it
Charlie Manuel on the Phillies offensive problems-
"I'm puzzled by it," he said. "I'm open for suggestions. I'll listen to what anybody's got to say. Fans. Cab drivers. President Bush. Anybody."
Well, Charles, here are a few suggestions for an offense that has gone .202/.303/.351 for the month of August-
1. Stop batting Jimmy Rollins leadoff.
In his last 8 games, Jimmy "Boo Berry" Rollins has an overall OBP of .167. His OBP for the season leading off the game or an inning is .243. It's hard to set the table well when the silverware is tarnished and the dinner plates are moldy and disgusting. The solution here is simple- try Shane Victorino. He has a career .347 OBP when leading off a game or inning, which is not great but is a huge improvement over Jimmy, who has never been great as a leadoff hitter; sadly, other than last season, he hasn't been great batting in any other slot either.
2. Ryan Howard should not be batting cleanup vs. lefties.
Even batting him 7th would be questionable this season. He has a career OPS vs. LHP of .744. This year, it's a robust .587. Lefties have learned that if they have any kind of decent breaking ball, Howard is an easy out.
3. The Geoff Jenkins experiment has failed.
He was supposed to be a RHP hitting specialist, but the only thing he has specialized in this year is making outs. He has a .724 OPS vs. RHP this year, and has been atrocious since August 6th, although he's hardly alone in that. Jayson Werth hits both lefties and righties better than Jenkins at this point.
4. Try batting Burrell 2nd, or 3rd or 4th (especially vs. LHP,) more often.
Ryan Howard isn't protecting him anymore, and there's no one below him in the order to drive him in when he walks, which is often. Look, Burrell is not going to be a 140 RBI a year guy. But he is a guy with a great knack for getting on base. Use that to your advantage rather than watching the Jenkins/Feliz/Bruntlett/Coste/Ruiz/Dobbs casserole continually struggle to get him home.
5. Get on their asses.
Look, there is something seriously wrong here. No sane, enlightened person would have believed that this team would rank 5th in ERA and 4th in runs per game at August 19th, but here they are. You're the manager Charlie. Act like it.
Here are starting lineups Charlie should consider. They may seem a little wild, but hopefully they are better than President Bush's suggestions-
vs. RHP
1. Victorino
2. Burrell
3. Utley
4. Howard
5. Rollins
6. Werth/Jenkins
7. Feliz
8. Ruiz
vs. LHP
1. Victorino
2. Utley
3. Werth
4. Burrell
5. Rollins
6. Feliz
7. Howard
8. Ruiz/Coste
"I'm puzzled by it," he said. "I'm open for suggestions. I'll listen to what anybody's got to say. Fans. Cab drivers. President Bush. Anybody."
Well, Charles, here are a few suggestions for an offense that has gone .202/.303/.351 for the month of August-
1. Stop batting Jimmy Rollins leadoff.
In his last 8 games, Jimmy "Boo Berry" Rollins has an overall OBP of .167. His OBP for the season leading off the game or an inning is .243. It's hard to set the table well when the silverware is tarnished and the dinner plates are moldy and disgusting. The solution here is simple- try Shane Victorino. He has a career .347 OBP when leading off a game or inning, which is not great but is a huge improvement over Jimmy, who has never been great as a leadoff hitter; sadly, other than last season, he hasn't been great batting in any other slot either.
2. Ryan Howard should not be batting cleanup vs. lefties.
Even batting him 7th would be questionable this season. He has a career OPS vs. LHP of .744. This year, it's a robust .587. Lefties have learned that if they have any kind of decent breaking ball, Howard is an easy out.
3. The Geoff Jenkins experiment has failed.
He was supposed to be a RHP hitting specialist, but the only thing he has specialized in this year is making outs. He has a .724 OPS vs. RHP this year, and has been atrocious since August 6th, although he's hardly alone in that. Jayson Werth hits both lefties and righties better than Jenkins at this point.
4. Try batting Burrell 2nd, or 3rd or 4th (especially vs. LHP,) more often.
Ryan Howard isn't protecting him anymore, and there's no one below him in the order to drive him in when he walks, which is often. Look, Burrell is not going to be a 140 RBI a year guy. But he is a guy with a great knack for getting on base. Use that to your advantage rather than watching the Jenkins/Feliz/Bruntlett/Coste/Ruiz/Dobbs casserole continually struggle to get him home.
5. Get on their asses.
Look, there is something seriously wrong here. No sane, enlightened person would have believed that this team would rank 5th in ERA and 4th in runs per game at August 19th, but here they are. You're the manager Charlie. Act like it.
Here are starting lineups Charlie should consider. They may seem a little wild, but hopefully they are better than President Bush's suggestions-
vs. RHP
1. Victorino
2. Burrell
3. Utley
4. Howard
5. Rollins
6. Werth/Jenkins
7. Feliz
8. Ruiz
vs. LHP
1. Victorino
2. Utley
3. Werth
4. Burrell
5. Rollins
6. Feliz
7. Howard
8. Ruiz/Coste
Theo Ratliff is back
Ah, a return to the glory days of early summer 2001. When men were men, no one thought Muslim terrorists would do something as crazy as crash hijacked planes into buildings, and the Sixers were playing for the NBA championship with a lineup of Allen Iverson plus 11 other guys, one of whom was Theo Ratliff.
Ratliff signed a 1-year deal with the Sixers yesterday in a move to add big man depth. With Jason Smith on the DL for an extended stay and Marreese Speights being a rookie, they needed someone to strengthen the middle. And as a bonus perhaps he can act as a mentor to young Marreese, teaching him the fine but possibly unteachable art of blocking a ton of shots.
The problem with the signing (and of course there is one) is that Ratliff is as fragile as a Russia/Georgia peace agreement. He's only played 28 games over the past 2 years. Amazingly, he's only played 705 games in his 13 year career, and never played more than 57 in any of his 3 seasons with the Sixers. If he goes down early in the year, or is just so rusty that he's ineffective, then the whole signing will be for naught. But the hope is that he can recapture some of the magic that helped make the 2000-2001 Sixers one of the most improbable championship contenders of my lifetime.
Ratliff signed a 1-year deal with the Sixers yesterday in a move to add big man depth. With Jason Smith on the DL for an extended stay and Marreese Speights being a rookie, they needed someone to strengthen the middle. And as a bonus perhaps he can act as a mentor to young Marreese, teaching him the fine but possibly unteachable art of blocking a ton of shots.
The problem with the signing (and of course there is one) is that Ratliff is as fragile as a Russia/Georgia peace agreement. He's only played 28 games over the past 2 years. Amazingly, he's only played 705 games in his 13 year career, and never played more than 57 in any of his 3 seasons with the Sixers. If he goes down early in the year, or is just so rusty that he's ineffective, then the whole signing will be for naught. But the hope is that he can recapture some of the magic that helped make the 2000-2001 Sixers one of the most improbable championship contenders of my lifetime.
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