Simple Math

I understand that NFL coaches are paid to devise plays and motivate their players and not for their math skills. But one would think that a team could hire a math nerd to sit on the sidelines and tell them when to kick an extra point and when to go for a two point conversion, as opposed to relying on former NFL players to make these decision.

Case in point:

In the fourth quarter of last night's Steelers/Jaguars game, the Steelers scored a touchdown with 10:25 left in the game to cut the Jaguars lead to 28-23. Instead of kicking the extra point and making it a four point game, the Steelers decided to go for two. With the amount of scoring that had already occurred in the game as well as the fact that there was over ten minutes left on the clock, I would have kicked the extra point and tried to hold the Jaguars to a field goal for the rest of the game. The two point conversion is successful around 40-50 percent of the time (I don't knows the exact number for 2007). The Steelers wanted to make it a three point game, went for two, and got it on a great catch and throw from Roethlisberger to Ward.

But hold on a second, there was holding on the play which meant the down would have to be re-played and the ball would be spotted at the 12. At this point, the conversion rate probably falls down to 10-20% and it is an automatic to kick the extra point, try to hold the Jaguars to three points for the rest of the game and score a touchdown to tie the score.

Unfortunately for Steelers fans, Mike Tomlin does not believe in "probabilities". He thought it was still a good decision to go for two from the 12 yard line and it didn't pan out, leaving the score 28-23 in the Jaguars favor. The Steelers scored another touchdown, putting them in the lead 29-28, went for two again and it failed. Jaguars marched down the field on their last drive, kicked a field goal and won the game.

This was a simple math problem that the Steelers' coaching staff failed atrociously.

A big win in big D - for the future

Even though they are mathematically out of the playoffs after last night's Vikings victory, it's always nice for the Eagles to beat up on their biggest one-sided rival, the Cowboys. I say one-sided because Cowboys fans generally do not consider the Eagles to be their most hated foe. Anyway, it was a nice victory, and featured a renewed mobility from Donovan McNabb, who obviously wants to showcase to the rest of the teams in the league that he is ready to be their quarterback. Ii seems that he can't stay here considering the words he has spoken this year. He's made it obvious he wants out, and no one should blame him. But what would next year bring if he does stay and is back to level approaching his old form, which was pretty damn good?

The fact is this team is not as bad as everyone, inlcuding myself in recent weeks, thinks. They have the best running back in the NFC, an offensive line that's decent when the QB can move/doesn't hold the ball for 18 seconds, a sad and terrible WR corps as they have most years, and slighly above average pass and run defenses. The special teams have been atrocious, but can be fixed. Akers (hopefully) just had an off year, and they can always find kick and punt returners. The Sav Rocca novelty also has worn thin; he's just not a good punter. But again, special teams are something which can be fixed in one offseason.

The Eagles could easily be 9-5 and heading to the playoffs with the talent assembled. Who is to say that next year, with a healthy McNabb, they wouldn't realize that potential and make a run in the playoffs? They're not in the same position as teams like Chicago, which is a recently good team in need of a complete overhaul. They're more like the Bengals; a good team that had some bad breaks this year.

Hopefully, we will get a chance to see what happens with McNabb under center next year. Despite all his jockeying, Reid and Joe Banner say he's staying, and I do hope Donovan will have a change of heart in the offseason. And if he doesn't, well, fuck him.

Where is the real Willie Green?

In the month of December, Willie Green is shooting 57% from the field, and averaging 1.29 points per shot. And in his last 3 games, he's been to the free throw line 10 times, which for him is a huge triumph. His only really bad game this month was against Boston, which is the greatest team ever by most accounts from people who are Celtics fans.

Of course, he still can't rebound, pass, handle, or defend, but this post isn't about that. Instead, it is intended to congratulate our friend Willie for showing that, as we all knew, Billy King is to blame. Billy King was holding him back. "But wait", you say, "that makes no sense. Billy King was the GM and President, not the frigging coach. He's not responsible." Or is he? Something to think about, friends.

In other Philly sports news, Aaron Rowand has signed with the Giants for $219 billion over 15 years. Or something. In any case, they WAY overpaid for a guy with a career.805 OPS and who won a dubious Gold Glove this year. But contrary to popular belief, I'll miss Rowand. He was fun to watch and I did like his approach to the game, even if that approach does not make him the elite player people here like to believe he is.

HE'S FINALLY GONE!

Bye bye, Billy King. I'd say "Bon Voyage", but I just found out that's not French for "Fuck you, thank Christ you're leaving." Which totally changes the context of the film Bon Voyage, Charlie Brown.

The Enemy Within

It seems as though Ed Wade is doing his best to ruin the Houston Astros' chances of competing for the playoffs before they even play one game.

Like most other analysts, I thought the Phillies got the better of the Brad Lidge/Michael Bourn trade, though Wade has always been obsessed with the idea of a speedy guy at the top of the lineup. But his latest move is just mind blowing.

The Astros reportedly have agreed with free-agent second baseman Kaz Matsui on a three-year contract worth $15 million.

Maybe Wade thought he was signing Hideki Matsui. Three years and 15 million dollars for Kaz Matsui? I can think of a number of reasons why this is going to turn out to be a disaster for the Astros.

1. Kaz Matsui has a career OBP of .325. Before he went to the hitters paradise that is Coors Field, his career OBP was .314. Atrocious is a word that comes to mind when I look at those numbers.

2. At first glance, Matsui's numbers for 2007 look decent enough, .747 OPS with 32 stolen bases. All one has to do is look at his home/road splits to see how much Coors Field pumped up his numbers. On the road, he put up .249/.304/.333. Yes, you are reading that right, on the road Matsui produced an OPS of .637 that would make Abraham Nunez proud.

3. Matsui's only decent attribute is his base stealing ability. He is 32 years old. Hmmmm, I wonder what age does to baseball players that rely on speed?

With Bourn and Matsui at the top of the lineup, I imagine there will be quite a few instances this year when the Astros #3 batter is up with two outs in the first inning.

The Soft Pretzel Factory

You know when things aren't going your way? When you try to throw a FF game and your team scores two TDs in the first quarter of the Thursday night game. Grrrr.

Anyways, it is very slow now in the Philadelphia sports world as the vultures continue to circle and have started to peck at Donovan McNabb to see if still able to fight back. So as opposed to ranting about one issue, I will take on a few issues.

According to Jayson Stark, there are six teams trying to sign Randy Wolf but the Phillies amped up their pursuit this week by getting nearly every one of their top executives on the phone with him personally.

I'm glad that Pat Gillick and the Phillies are modeling their free agency pursuits after the college football recruiting process. I think the next step is for them to give his brother a job as the assistant athletic director. Seriously, if they want to sign Wolf, give him a two year deal. But don't leak stories like these to Jayson Stark. It just makes the Phillies front office come off more out of touch than they even are.

Recent internet rumors have Andre Miller being traded to the Miami Heat for Jason Williams.

You know when would have been a good time to trade Andre Miller? Six months ago before the draft to a team like the Atlanta Hawks who had two first round picks and really needed a point guard. But why get maximum value for one of your assets when you can wait a year and get fifty cents on the dollar? That's Billy King's motto and he's sticking to it.

Miller is averaging 5.1 assists per 40 minutes. That is two assists lower than his previous career low. While his shooting percentage has been decent, his value lies in the fact that he is a traditional point guard. And those skills are obviously starting to deteriorate. As opposed to getting actual value for Miller, the Sixers will probably end up taking expiring contracts so Billy King can figure out a way to further screw up the Sixers 2008 off-season.

According to the Philadelphia Daily News worthless new Phillies beat writer Steve King, the Phillies are rumored to be interested in trading for Orioles third baseman Melvin Mora.

In order to "break" this story, Steve King took a story from the Baltimore Sun and reprinted it. This would work in 1987 when people outside of Baltimore did not have access to the Baltimore Sun. Unfortunately the year is 2007 and we all have the Internet.

Now as far as Melvin Mora goes, there is one interesting fact about him that stands out to me: He stinks. He stunk last year and he stunk in 2006. His last good year was 2005. MLB started testing for performance enhancing drugs after 2005. Coincidence? Maybe, but I like accusing rich people of illegalities so bare with me. He will also be 36 at the start of this season and has two years left on his contract for a total of 18 million dollars.

Even when Aaron Rowand leaves, the Phillies will still have a good offense. Will it be head and shoulders above the rest of the NL like it was last year? Probably not. But the slight upgrade that Mora provides over the Phillies' current options is definitely not worth paying 9 million a year for.

Last night against the Utah Jazz, Willie Green went to the free throw line a season high 7 times, making 6 of them.

He also went 2-10 from the field to reduce his shooting percentage on the year to a chilly .376. For the year, Whistlin Willie is averaging a scorching 0.95 points per shot attempt. If the Sixers as a team averaged 0.95 points per shot attempt, they would score 75 points a night. Willie also currently ranks 258th out of 300 players in John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Ratings.

Seriously, can the Sixers just trade Miller, sit Green and see if Louis Williams and Iguodala can play in the back court together? Enough already.

Should Donovan McNabb be killed?

(This is a super serious editorial I have written to broaden our appeal to Philadelphia sports fans)

After last night's clear moral victory that strangely still counts as a loss according to the archaic NFL rules, it's plainer than ever that AJ Feeley is, without hyperbole, the best quarterback in Eagles' history. But it seems there is still a question as to whether he will remain the starter this Sunday or if he will be replaced by the listless, decrepit, and Holocaust-denying Donovan McNabb. It is this quarterback controversy which leads us to the true fundamental question the Eagles must face as they head into their showdown with the Seahawks and their final 5 games of the season- should Donovan McNabb be bound and gagged and thrown into an active volcano, or shouldn't he?

As recently as 2004 I would have said "NO. Do not kill Donovan McNabb, even if it is to feed hungry pitbulls who would gladly feast on his innards." But in the bright glow of the radiance of AJ Feeley, I'm not so sure I'm opposed to the concept. On paper, the case can be made that Donovan should be this team's quarterback. He's had an excellent career and they've won a whole lot of games with him at the helm. But on another sheet of paper, I have drawn a picture of Donovan being horribly mangled in the propeller of a large airplane, and it just feels right.

There are other reasons to take McNabb out behind the Linc and put two in his skull as well. For one, he still hasn't won a Super Bowl. AJ Feeley hasn't won one either, but at least he wants to. McNabb probably would rather get injured than win, because that's what he likes to do. Also, McNabb has never won the MVP. AJ Feeley basically sealed his MVP award last night by throwing an equal amount of interceptions and touchdowns, demonstrating that the balance he brings to the Eagles is unparalleled, and that McNabb needs to be assassinated via injection with ricin pellets like Bulgarian dissident Georgi Markov was in 1978.

Is it the end of the world if Number 5 isn't crushed by one of those swinging two-tree thingys like the AT-ST was during the Battle of Endor in Return of the Jedi? Of course not. Even if he returns to being the starter, there is always a chance that AJ Feeley will grant McNabb an audience and then tutor him. And he'll probably end up injured again anyway, since he doesn't play hard and is always getting hurt because of it. But why risk a McNabb return when you can guarantee several years of Feeley (and therefore Super Bowl wins and low unemployment with low inflation)just by inserting an ice pick into the base of his skull? It's the only unselfish choice for the team, and for America.