When you deal your organization's top positional prospect, the return has to be better than Joe Blanton. At his best, Blanton is a 2/3 who will "eat innings" but still doesn't strike a lot of guys out. At his worst, he is a slight upgrade over Adam Eaton. His career road ERA of 4.78 is frightening. And there was no reason to throw in Outman as well. Thanks Pat Gillick and enjoy retirement.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
The Zo Spin Zone
From Todd Zolecki's blog regarding the Joe Blanton deal (which reads a lot like an employee of the Phillies wrote):
Take away his four worst starts this season and he has a 3.58 ERA,
This is what we refer to as "cherrypicking". When you have a sample size of 200 starts, maybe you can point to four starts as an aberration. When you have a sample size of 20 starts, pulling out four starts equates to 20% of Blanton's performance. Would you justify a batter's first half performance by removing 60 at bats? Of course not. So why do it with a pitcher?
But if you're going to play this game, you can look at it from a lot of different angles.
Take away Joe Blanton's four best starts this season and he has a 5.82 ERA.
Take away Adam Eaton's four worst starts this season and he has a 4.15 ERA.
Take away Cole Hamels' four worst starts this season and he has a 2.10 ERA.
THIS IS WHY YOU DON'T REMOVE 20% OF YOUR SAMPLE SIZE.
I liked the pun I used for the title.
Take away his four worst starts this season and he has a 3.58 ERA,
This is what we refer to as "cherrypicking". When you have a sample size of 200 starts, maybe you can point to four starts as an aberration. When you have a sample size of 20 starts, pulling out four starts equates to 20% of Blanton's performance. Would you justify a batter's first half performance by removing 60 at bats? Of course not. So why do it with a pitcher?
But if you're going to play this game, you can look at it from a lot of different angles.
Take away Joe Blanton's four best starts this season and he has a 5.82 ERA.
Take away Adam Eaton's four worst starts this season and he has a 4.15 ERA.
Take away Cole Hamels' four worst starts this season and he has a 2.10 ERA.
THIS IS WHY YOU DON'T REMOVE 20% OF YOUR SAMPLE SIZE.
I liked the pun I used for the title.
David Murphy on Matt Holliday in the DN today-
Matt Holliday, outfielder Colorado- We won't bore you with the stats. OK, yes, we will: .337 batting average, .421 on-base percentage, 14 home runs, 51 RBI. Holliday is a stud.
I'd like to make a correction to his statement that Holliday is some sort of male horse who breeds with female horses- Holliday is a stud ONLY AT COORS FIELD. For his career, he has an impressive Home OPS of 1.086, but a pedestrian Away OPS of .790. Sure, a little bit of that can be blamed on the fact that he has to play a lot of away games at Petco Park and Dodger Stadium, but those splits show his overall stats are more a product of the thin Colorado air rather than massive studliness.
And this goes on throughout their lineup- Todd Helton has a career Home OPS of 1.114 (!) and an Away OPS of .888 (good, but not ! good). Garrett Atkins, a player most Phillies fans would love to have at the hot corner, has a career .934 Home OPS and a .765 career Away OPS. Brad Hawpe, amazingly, bucks the trend- his career Home OPS is .876 and Away it is only .32 points lower. Yorvit Torrealba was a terrible hitter before he went to Colorado... and, well, still is.
Now, the Phillies also play in a park known as hitter friendly. But their splits aren't nearly as severe as the Rockies. Chase Utley has a career Home OPS of .945 and an Away OPS of .867. Ryan Howard- .984 Home, .962 Away. Pat Burrell has almost identical splits- .858 Home and .859 Away (although he did play in the Vet for a few years). Rollins also played in the Vet, and his Home OPS is .800, Away .747. And last year in his MVP season, he had a Home OPS of .892 and an Away OPS of .859. Not a huge gap there.
Perhaps the best example of the Coors Field effect is Vinny Castilla. The guy put up a bunch of 30-40 HR season for the Rockies in the 90's, left and struggled in ATL, TB, and HOU for a couple years, then in 2004 goes back to COL and hits 35 dongs and 43 doubles at 36 years old. The next year in WAS, he hit 12 HR in 494 AB. Larry Walker's another one- he was Superman when he played for Colorado, but was a mere Green Arrow or Booster Gold on Montreal and St. Louis. Dante Bichette's another one who was just plain average outside of Coors. And the list goes on.
The point of all this, of course, is screw the Rockies, and be glad that they absolutely suck this year. Losers.
*I realize that Castilla and Walker are "pre-Coors Field humidor" guys. But it doesn't change much. Holliday has played his entire career in the Colorado post-humidor world.
Matt Holliday, outfielder Colorado- We won't bore you with the stats. OK, yes, we will: .337 batting average, .421 on-base percentage, 14 home runs, 51 RBI. Holliday is a stud.
I'd like to make a correction to his statement that Holliday is some sort of male horse who breeds with female horses- Holliday is a stud ONLY AT COORS FIELD. For his career, he has an impressive Home OPS of 1.086, but a pedestrian Away OPS of .790. Sure, a little bit of that can be blamed on the fact that he has to play a lot of away games at Petco Park and Dodger Stadium, but those splits show his overall stats are more a product of the thin Colorado air rather than massive studliness.
And this goes on throughout their lineup- Todd Helton has a career Home OPS of 1.114 (!) and an Away OPS of .888 (good, but not ! good). Garrett Atkins, a player most Phillies fans would love to have at the hot corner, has a career .934 Home OPS and a .765 career Away OPS. Brad Hawpe, amazingly, bucks the trend- his career Home OPS is .876 and Away it is only .32 points lower. Yorvit Torrealba was a terrible hitter before he went to Colorado... and, well, still is.
Now, the Phillies also play in a park known as hitter friendly. But their splits aren't nearly as severe as the Rockies. Chase Utley has a career Home OPS of .945 and an Away OPS of .867. Ryan Howard- .984 Home, .962 Away. Pat Burrell has almost identical splits- .858 Home and .859 Away (although he did play in the Vet for a few years). Rollins also played in the Vet, and his Home OPS is .800, Away .747. And last year in his MVP season, he had a Home OPS of .892 and an Away OPS of .859. Not a huge gap there.
Perhaps the best example of the Coors Field effect is Vinny Castilla. The guy put up a bunch of 30-40 HR season for the Rockies in the 90's, left and struggled in ATL, TB, and HOU for a couple years, then in 2004 goes back to COL and hits 35 dongs and 43 doubles at 36 years old. The next year in WAS, he hit 12 HR in 494 AB. Larry Walker's another one- he was Superman when he played for Colorado, but was a mere Green Arrow or Booster Gold on Montreal and St. Louis. Dante Bichette's another one who was just plain average outside of Coors. And the list goes on.
The point of all this, of course, is screw the Rockies, and be glad that they absolutely suck this year. Losers.
*I realize that Castilla and Walker are "pre-Coors Field humidor" guys. But it doesn't change much. Holliday has played his entire career in the Colorado post-humidor world.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Who is Jimmy Rollins?
From Sam Donnellon’s piece in today’s DN on Jimmy Rollins’ inconsistency at the plate-
This season, when Rollins has scored, the record is 21-7.
So they’re 21-7 because Jimmy Rollins scored? No. Obviously his point is Rollins needs to get on base for the Phillies to be at their best. But why pick on Jimmy for not being on base more often? It’s no secret that it’s just not a big part of his game.
Jimmy Rollins is a very good player. Awesome power for his size, outstanding speed, a very good fielder, and just the right amount of cockiness (usually). But he is not a great leadoff hitter. His current OBP of .340 is actually better than his career OBP of .332, and is close to his OBP last season of .344. So the “problem” with Jimmy isn’t that he suddenly isn’t getting on base; the problem is he’s NEVER excelled at getting on base. He’s very ordinary and average when it comes to that.
In fact, the one thing he did significantly better than usual last year had nothing to do with just getting on base; it was getting extra bases when he hit. His SLG of .531 last year is 90 points better than his career SLG of .441. And lo and behold- his SLG this year is .438, right around his career average. Jimmy hasn’t fallen apart; he’s just having an average year by his standards. It's who Jimmy is.
This season, when Rollins has scored, the record is 21-7.
So they’re 21-7 because Jimmy Rollins scored? No. Obviously his point is Rollins needs to get on base for the Phillies to be at their best. But why pick on Jimmy for not being on base more often? It’s no secret that it’s just not a big part of his game.
Jimmy Rollins is a very good player. Awesome power for his size, outstanding speed, a very good fielder, and just the right amount of cockiness (usually). But he is not a great leadoff hitter. His current OBP of .340 is actually better than his career OBP of .332, and is close to his OBP last season of .344. So the “problem” with Jimmy isn’t that he suddenly isn’t getting on base; the problem is he’s NEVER excelled at getting on base. He’s very ordinary and average when it comes to that.
In fact, the one thing he did significantly better than usual last year had nothing to do with just getting on base; it was getting extra bases when he hit. His SLG of .531 last year is 90 points better than his career SLG of .441. And lo and behold- his SLG this year is .438, right around his career average. Jimmy hasn’t fallen apart; he’s just having an average year by his standards. It's who Jimmy is.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Elton B is President
To say the Elton Brand signing is exciting is an understatement, like saying Salma Hayek is okay looking or Jesse Jackson is kind of a jackass for wanting to cut off Obama’s nuts. He is easily the best post player here since Charles Barkley (sorry, Sharone Wright) and instantly makes the Sixers one of the top 4 teams in the East.
Obviously, this is all contingent on him being healthy, which several surgeons and holistic healers say he is. If this makes any sense, it’s actually more reassuring that the signing was made under the reign of Ed Stefanski rather than Billy King. First of all, Billy King never would have gotten the deal done because he would have already signed someone like Nenad Kristic or Balki from Perfect Strangers to a max deal. But there is also a reassuring aspect in the fact that Stefanski probably looked very closely at Brand’s health, whereas Billy King had no problems going after players who make a ton of money and only have one good leg. It’s far easier to trust Stefanski’s instincts than BK’s.
So what’s next for the revamped Sixers? Six consecutive titles? Appearances in Scooby Doo cartoons? Maybe, but probably not. Obviously their biggest need is someone who can shoot from more than 8 feet away from the net, and they don’t have a whole lot of money to play with to get someone like that. But moves can be made, and for now let us just thank the ghost of Billy King (what, he’s not dead?) for becoming ever less present in the Sixers front office and enjoy the beginning of a new era for Sixers basketball.
NOTE TO DESTROY THE OPTIMISM OF THIS POST: Elton Brand will probably only play 93 mediocre games as a Sixer before retiring due to injuries.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
No More Vlad
90 Games Played Against the Phillies
31 Home Runs
.373 BA
.745 SLG
1.213 OPS
We get it, you like to hit against the Phillies. You don't need to prove it anymore.
Monday, June 9, 2008
Major Tom, this is Ground Control. Stop singing and return to base immediately.
Over the last six weeks or so, Jim and I have received a decent amount of correspondence from our rapid teenage girl fanbase (note to the authorities: all emails with a picture are deleted immediately so there is no reason to look at all the other porn on our computers on one of your fishing expeditions) asking us what is up with the lack of updates to the site. For instance, Kara, 14 from Drexel Hill, wrote the following:
Hey guyz? Whtzup?!?! When willz u2 rite a new post? W/B/S. Kara
Well Kara, we do appreciate your concern, but sometimes other aspects of our lives receive more priority than this website. I can't speak for Jim, but I have been so caught up in the battle to determine Zimbabwe's next President that I have pretty much been ignoring sports completely. But I do think I can take a quick break from going over the latest poll data from Masvingo to answer a few questions about the Phillies. First though, I must cease laughing at "heady" David Eckstein getting picked off first in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game with no outs and Alex Rios about to get on base with a walk.
Is Ryan Howard going to turn it around or will he break his own strike out record?
Yes and yes. Howard's current BABIP is .259, which is significantly less than his three year average of .346 from '05-'07. Unless managers have figured out exactly where to play all seven guys in the field when Howard is at bat, the easiest explanation to the drop in BABIP is simply luck. For whatever reason, when Howard puts the ball in play, it is not finding the holes that it did the past three seasons. This number will go up or I'm not the next coach of the Chicago Bulls. His lack of walks is still concerning to me (Howard has two eight game streaks without taking a walk, he had zero such streaks in '07), I think he will start getting more hits in the next few months.
As far as the strikeouts go, Ryan Howard is always going to swing and miss at a lot of baseballs. If he gets ten at bats in a game, which I am predicting will happen August 29 at Wrigley and the Phils will win 32-28, Howard will strike out three times. The strike outs are the necessary evil that come with his insane power. People who suggest that he should choke up or just try to make contact probably need to go reassure their son that even if he isn't the best player on the team, he is still loved, because I'm sure he has his doubts.
Are there any players out there that the Phillies could trade for?
Probably, but it is still very early. I think a big prize will be Brian Fuentes of the Rockies, who is having another great year in that awful ballpark (ERA+ of 184). He only makes $5 million this year and will be a free agent at the end of this season. He would be a great addition to the back of the Phillies bullpen, but I don't know if the Rockies would be willing to take back a lot of guys in A ball because that is all the Phillies can afford to trade.
What can save the Mets season?
Hopefully nothing. Their current situation is much too entertaining for it to stop.
If the season ended on June 9, would Chase Utley be the MVP?
No. But if the baseball season ended on June 9, I think there would be much more important topics to talk about. Like, who is going to take my dollar coins in return for hot dogs later this summer?
Has Pedro Feliz won you over yet?
I am doing my best to ignore how awful he is as a hitter and just focus on the stability that he adds in the field. He does have a rocket for an arm and makes most of the plays he has to. But he is going to end the season with an OPS+ around 80-85 and hopefully the human out machine doesn't hurt them in the playoffs.
Hungry?
Yes. Meeting over.
Hey guyz? Whtzup?!?! When willz u2 rite a new post? W/B/S. Kara
Well Kara, we do appreciate your concern, but sometimes other aspects of our lives receive more priority than this website. I can't speak for Jim, but I have been so caught up in the battle to determine Zimbabwe's next President that I have pretty much been ignoring sports completely. But I do think I can take a quick break from going over the latest poll data from Masvingo to answer a few questions about the Phillies. First though, I must cease laughing at "heady" David Eckstein getting picked off first in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game with no outs and Alex Rios about to get on base with a walk.
Is Ryan Howard going to turn it around or will he break his own strike out record?
Yes and yes. Howard's current BABIP is .259, which is significantly less than his three year average of .346 from '05-'07. Unless managers have figured out exactly where to play all seven guys in the field when Howard is at bat, the easiest explanation to the drop in BABIP is simply luck. For whatever reason, when Howard puts the ball in play, it is not finding the holes that it did the past three seasons. This number will go up or I'm not the next coach of the Chicago Bulls. His lack of walks is still concerning to me (Howard has two eight game streaks without taking a walk, he had zero such streaks in '07), I think he will start getting more hits in the next few months.
As far as the strikeouts go, Ryan Howard is always going to swing and miss at a lot of baseballs. If he gets ten at bats in a game, which I am predicting will happen August 29 at Wrigley and the Phils will win 32-28, Howard will strike out three times. The strike outs are the necessary evil that come with his insane power. People who suggest that he should choke up or just try to make contact probably need to go reassure their son that even if he isn't the best player on the team, he is still loved, because I'm sure he has his doubts.
Are there any players out there that the Phillies could trade for?
Probably, but it is still very early. I think a big prize will be Brian Fuentes of the Rockies, who is having another great year in that awful ballpark (ERA+ of 184). He only makes $5 million this year and will be a free agent at the end of this season. He would be a great addition to the back of the Phillies bullpen, but I don't know if the Rockies would be willing to take back a lot of guys in A ball because that is all the Phillies can afford to trade.
What can save the Mets season?
Hopefully nothing. Their current situation is much too entertaining for it to stop.
If the season ended on June 9, would Chase Utley be the MVP?
No. But if the baseball season ended on June 9, I think there would be much more important topics to talk about. Like, who is going to take my dollar coins in return for hot dogs later this summer?
Has Pedro Feliz won you over yet?
I am doing my best to ignore how awful he is as a hitter and just focus on the stability that he adds in the field. He does have a rocket for an arm and makes most of the plays he has to. But he is going to end the season with an OPS+ around 80-85 and hopefully the human out machine doesn't hurt them in the playoffs.
Hungry?
Yes. Meeting over.
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