I’m back.
Where was I? France. Little known fact- there is no internet access in France.
In an excellent, relief-inducing move by the Phils, Brett Myers has been named the starter for Opening Day 2008. It was almost a sure thing that he would be back in the rotation, but the vote of confidence and picking him to lead the rotation rather than Hamels is a great move.
But all is not well in Clearwater- Brad Lidge, the new closer, is unlikely to be ready to go on opening day unless he gets some of the blood from the cheerleader on Heroes. And the second option is Tom Gordon, a man who is in desperate need of bionic replacement parts for his ravaged arm. And last season's closer has already been named as a starter. But as I always say, I'll take a good starter over a great closer any day.
Also, I had a weird dream last night that the Phillies had A-Rod. Prophetic? I’d say 100% yes.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Who?
From Randy Miller's column today:
Dominique Brown is tall and skinny at 6-foot-5, 205. He bats and throws left, plays a mean right field and has an arm that scares baserunners. And best of all, this kid hits baseballs a long, long way.
I google'd "Dominique Brown" and an reference about Nicole Brown Simpson's sister. I assume he was talking about Dominic Brown, the Phillies minor league player.
Some 18 months later, the Phillies are dreaming about someday having their best 1-2 power punch ever if Howard sticks around and Brown lives up to his potential.
I assume Brown will play the whole season in A ball as he has a grand total of 411 at bats professionally. Assuming that he plays A ball this year, AA in '09, and AAA in '10, he would be ready to for the majors in '11. That will also be Howard's final year before he reaches free agency, assuming that the Phillies don't trade him before then. So this would be more of a fantasy "dream", like the Trix Rabbit has of finally getting his Trix.
The group is headed by Brown and includes former No. 1 pick Greg Golson, D'Arby Myers, Matt Spencer and 2007 Paul Owens winner Quinton Berry.
1. It is Quintin, not Quinton.
2. Of that group of five players, one of them, Golson, has played above A ball. I find it difficult to get excited about a bunch of 18 and 19 year old kids that haven't seen AA pitching, let alone succeeded against it.
I know writers have a lot of filler articles that they have to file during spring training. But this just seems like a story that Miller got after having some beers with one of the Phillies minor league development guys last night. The only one of these guys that might sniff the majors in the next three years is Golson and he is still a work in progress. It took Golson three years to get to AA and that is where he is going to start this season. His career OBP in the minors is .303, which is just atrocious.
But at least baseball is starting.
Dominique Brown is tall and skinny at 6-foot-5, 205. He bats and throws left, plays a mean right field and has an arm that scares baserunners. And best of all, this kid hits baseballs a long, long way.
I google'd "Dominique Brown" and an reference about Nicole Brown Simpson's sister. I assume he was talking about Dominic Brown, the Phillies minor league player.
Some 18 months later, the Phillies are dreaming about someday having their best 1-2 power punch ever if Howard sticks around and Brown lives up to his potential.
I assume Brown will play the whole season in A ball as he has a grand total of 411 at bats professionally. Assuming that he plays A ball this year, AA in '09, and AAA in '10, he would be ready to for the majors in '11. That will also be Howard's final year before he reaches free agency, assuming that the Phillies don't trade him before then. So this would be more of a fantasy "dream", like the Trix Rabbit has of finally getting his Trix.
The group is headed by Brown and includes former No. 1 pick Greg Golson, D'Arby Myers, Matt Spencer and 2007 Paul Owens winner Quinton Berry.
1. It is Quintin, not Quinton.
2. Of that group of five players, one of them, Golson, has played above A ball. I find it difficult to get excited about a bunch of 18 and 19 year old kids that haven't seen AA pitching, let alone succeeded against it.
I know writers have a lot of filler articles that they have to file during spring training. But this just seems like a story that Miller got after having some beers with one of the Phillies minor league development guys last night. The only one of these guys that might sniff the majors in the next three years is Golson and he is still a work in progress. It took Golson three years to get to AA and that is where he is going to start this season. His career OBP in the minors is .303, which is just atrocious.
But at least baseball is starting.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Hazing Time
Yes, it is time for the monthly post.
I had planned on trashing Phil Sheridan's Fantasyland column from this morning's Inquirer that suggested the Phillies lay down during their arbitration hearing with Ryan Howard.
But Keith Law beat me to the punch.
So instead, I will pick on the Daily News' new Phillies beat writer, David Murphy. I am certain that Murphy will be an upgrade over the DN's previous beat guy, Marcus Hayes, but he is off to a rough start. Apparently he has quite a hard on for batting averages. This is from today's spring training report regarding Pat Burrell:
Eight years into his career, it's still difficult to find the proper perspective through which to view the man who at one point was cast as a franchise's savior. On one hand are his 218 career home runs, fifth in Phillies history. By the end of the year, he'll likely move back Greg Luzinski (223) and Chuck Klein (243).
I had planned on trashing Phil Sheridan's Fantasyland column from this morning's Inquirer that suggested the Phillies lay down during their arbitration hearing with Ryan Howard.
But Keith Law beat me to the punch.
So instead, I will pick on the Daily News' new Phillies beat writer, David Murphy. I am certain that Murphy will be an upgrade over the DN's previous beat guy, Marcus Hayes, but he is off to a rough start. Apparently he has quite a hard on for batting averages. This is from today's spring training report regarding Pat Burrell:
Eight years into his career, it's still difficult to find the proper perspective through which to view the man who at one point was cast as a franchise's savior. On one hand are his 218 career home runs, fifth in Phillies history. By the end of the year, he'll likely move back Greg Luzinski (223) and Chuck Klein (243).
On the other hand are his .258 career average and numerous injuries.
Batting average, home runs. These are the only criteria used to judge Pat Burrell. What about his career .357 OBP or .482 SLG?
In 2002, the year before he signed a 6-year contract extension that will earn him $14 million this year, he hit .282 with 37 home runs and 116 RBI. The following year, those numbers plummeted to .209, 21 and 64.
Burrell had one awful year and it was five years ago. It is time to let it go.
Only once has his batting average improved in two straight seasons (from .209 to .257 to .281 from 2003-05). After hitting .281 with 32 home runs and 117 RBI in 2005, his batting average dropped to .258 in 2006 and .256 last year.
When David Murphy was young, he would open up a package of baseball cards and organize all his new cards by the player's batting averages. What is the difference between hitting .258 and .256? Last year for Burrell, it is one hit. One more hit and he would not have landed on the dreaded Murphy Sliding Batting Average List.
No one is expecting Pat Burrell to hit .300. We do expect him to get on base and hit home runs. Burrell's OPS the past three seasons have been .893, .890, and .902. While he may have his ups and downs throughout the season, at the end of the year his numbers always end up around the same place. There aren't too many teams that would turn down the idea of having a left fielder put up an OPS of .890 on a yearly basis.
"But what about his batting average?!?!"
Hopefully the learning curve is not a steep one for David Murphy.
In 2002, the year before he signed a 6-year contract extension that will earn him $14 million this year, he hit .282 with 37 home runs and 116 RBI. The following year, those numbers plummeted to .209, 21 and 64.
Burrell had one awful year and it was five years ago. It is time to let it go.
Only once has his batting average improved in two straight seasons (from .209 to .257 to .281 from 2003-05). After hitting .281 with 32 home runs and 117 RBI in 2005, his batting average dropped to .258 in 2006 and .256 last year.
When David Murphy was young, he would open up a package of baseball cards and organize all his new cards by the player's batting averages. What is the difference between hitting .258 and .256? Last year for Burrell, it is one hit. One more hit and he would not have landed on the dreaded Murphy Sliding Batting Average List.
No one is expecting Pat Burrell to hit .300. We do expect him to get on base and hit home runs. Burrell's OPS the past three seasons have been .893, .890, and .902. While he may have his ups and downs throughout the season, at the end of the year his numbers always end up around the same place. There aren't too many teams that would turn down the idea of having a left fielder put up an OPS of .890 on a yearly basis.
"But what about his batting average?!?!"
Hopefully the learning curve is not a steep one for David Murphy.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Mo Money Mo Problems
What is $3 million between friends?
Myself and the rest of my friends in The Millionaire Club may laugh at that figure, but it may be the monetary difference that sends Ryan Howard and the Phillies to an arbitrator to determine his 2008 contract. Howard feels that he should be paid $10 million and the Phillies think his worth is $7 million (I like how they rounded to the closest million). It is always possible that the two sides come to an agreement before it reaches arbitration, but I think the $3 million gap is not going to be bridged very easily.
Arbitration awards are based on both performance and service time. To put Howard's demands into perspective, Alfonso Soriano is the only player in the history of baseball to be awarded $10 million in arbitration and he received that before his sixth year in the league, his last before becoming a free agent. Howard is classified in the "Super Two" category for players that have not had three full service years in MLB, but fulfill other playing time categories to qualify for salary arbitration. Needless to say, no player has ever received $10 million in their first year in arbitration.
Todd Zolecki has done a great job so far covering this issue, both in print and at his blog. He speculates that Howard's contract demands will be in excess of the 7 year, $100 million contract that Albert Pujols signed.
This issue seems have to split the fanbase into two camps; one thinks that the Phillies are being smart for not extending Howard immediately and the other shouting "C'mon, stop bein' so cheap and pay the man".
I fall firmly in line with those that feel the Phillies are doing the correct thing in not handing over the keys to the vault to Howard at this time. Why? Let me count the ways.
1. When a team and a player come to an agreement for a long-term contract before the player reaches free agency, it usually is a win-win for both parties. The team is able to buy the player out of his first year or two of free agency at a discount, as compared to what he would possibly get on the open market, and the player gets the security of a long-term, guaranteed contract. Ryan Howard is a unique situation because he will be 27 when the season begins and the Phillies have him under control for the next four seasons, or until after the 2011 season. When Pujols got his contract, he was 24 years old and three years away away from free agency. By giving him a four year contract, the Cardinals bought Pujols out of his first four years of free agency and locked him up until age 31, through his assumed peak years. The Phillies already have Howard under their control through age 31 without giving him a contract extension.
2. According to Baseball Reference's most comparable players to Ryan Howard at age 27, two of them also had very similar body types to Howard, Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn. Let's look at both guy's OPS+ after age 26:
Fielder
26: 167
27: 133
28: 117
29: 124
30: 113
31: 111
32: 108
33: 101
34: 86
Vaughn
26: 146
27: 144
28: 150
29: 152
30: 153
31: 119
32: 115
33: 113
35: 73
As can be seen from above, both guys saw their production dip tremendously at one point, Fielder at age 28 and Vaughn at age 31, and never saw it return to its previous levels. So while Howard has been tremendous the last two years, there should be some trepidation on the Phillies' part to give him to long of a contract extension.
Right now, I think the Phillies should try to get him to sign for three years at 30 million with the contract breaking out as $8.5 million in 2008, $10.0 in 2009, and $11.5 million in 2010. I think that is a win-win for both sides. And then in 2011, we can have all out war.
Myself and the rest of my friends in The Millionaire Club may laugh at that figure, but it may be the monetary difference that sends Ryan Howard and the Phillies to an arbitrator to determine his 2008 contract. Howard feels that he should be paid $10 million and the Phillies think his worth is $7 million (I like how they rounded to the closest million). It is always possible that the two sides come to an agreement before it reaches arbitration, but I think the $3 million gap is not going to be bridged very easily.Arbitration awards are based on both performance and service time. To put Howard's demands into perspective, Alfonso Soriano is the only player in the history of baseball to be awarded $10 million in arbitration and he received that before his sixth year in the league, his last before becoming a free agent. Howard is classified in the "Super Two" category for players that have not had three full service years in MLB, but fulfill other playing time categories to qualify for salary arbitration. Needless to say, no player has ever received $10 million in their first year in arbitration.
Todd Zolecki has done a great job so far covering this issue, both in print and at his blog. He speculates that Howard's contract demands will be in excess of the 7 year, $100 million contract that Albert Pujols signed.
This issue seems have to split the fanbase into two camps; one thinks that the Phillies are being smart for not extending Howard immediately and the other shouting "C'mon, stop bein' so cheap and pay the man".
I fall firmly in line with those that feel the Phillies are doing the correct thing in not handing over the keys to the vault to Howard at this time. Why? Let me count the ways.
1. When a team and a player come to an agreement for a long-term contract before the player reaches free agency, it usually is a win-win for both parties. The team is able to buy the player out of his first year or two of free agency at a discount, as compared to what he would possibly get on the open market, and the player gets the security of a long-term, guaranteed contract. Ryan Howard is a unique situation because he will be 27 when the season begins and the Phillies have him under control for the next four seasons, or until after the 2011 season. When Pujols got his contract, he was 24 years old and three years away away from free agency. By giving him a four year contract, the Cardinals bought Pujols out of his first four years of free agency and locked him up until age 31, through his assumed peak years. The Phillies already have Howard under their control through age 31 without giving him a contract extension.
2. According to Baseball Reference's most comparable players to Ryan Howard at age 27, two of them also had very similar body types to Howard, Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn. Let's look at both guy's OPS+ after age 26:
Fielder
26: 167
27: 133
28: 117
29: 124
30: 113
31: 111
32: 108
33: 101
34: 86
Vaughn
26: 146
27: 144
28: 150
29: 152
30: 153
31: 119
32: 115
33: 113
35: 73
As can be seen from above, both guys saw their production dip tremendously at one point, Fielder at age 28 and Vaughn at age 31, and never saw it return to its previous levels. So while Howard has been tremendous the last two years, there should be some trepidation on the Phillies' part to give him to long of a contract extension.
Right now, I think the Phillies should try to get him to sign for three years at 30 million with the contract breaking out as $8.5 million in 2008, $10.0 in 2009, and $11.5 million in 2010. I think that is a win-win for both sides. And then in 2011, we can have all out war.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Simple Math
I understand that NFL coaches are paid to devise plays and motivate their players and not for their math skills. But one would think that a team could hire a math nerd to sit on the sidelines and tell them when to kick an extra point and when to go for a two point conversion, as opposed to relying on former NFL players to make these decision.
Case in point:
In the fourth quarter of last night's Steelers/Jaguars game, the Steelers scored a touchdown with 10:25 left in the game to cut the Jaguars lead to 28-23. Instead of kicking the extra point and making it a four point game, the Steelers decided to go for two. With the amount of scoring that had already occurred in the game as well as the fact that there was over ten minutes left on the clock, I would have kicked the extra point and tried to hold the Jaguars to a field goal for the rest of the game. The two point conversion is successful around 40-50 percent of the time (I don't knows the exact number for 2007). The Steelers wanted to make it a three point game, went for two, and got it on a great catch and throw from Roethlisberger to Ward.
But hold on a second, there was holding on the play which meant the down would have to be re-played and the ball would be spotted at the 12. At this point, the conversion rate probably falls down to 10-20% and it is an automatic to kick the extra point, try to hold the Jaguars to three points for the rest of the game and score a touchdown to tie the score.
Unfortunately for Steelers fans, Mike Tomlin does not believe in "probabilities". He thought it was still a good decision to go for two from the 12 yard line and it didn't pan out, leaving the score 28-23 in the Jaguars favor. The Steelers scored another touchdown, putting them in the lead 29-28, went for two again and it failed. Jaguars marched down the field on their last drive, kicked a field goal and won the game.
This was a simple math problem that the Steelers' coaching staff failed atrociously.
Case in point:
In the fourth quarter of last night's Steelers/Jaguars game, the Steelers scored a touchdown with 10:25 left in the game to cut the Jaguars lead to 28-23. Instead of kicking the extra point and making it a four point game, the Steelers decided to go for two. With the amount of scoring that had already occurred in the game as well as the fact that there was over ten minutes left on the clock, I would have kicked the extra point and tried to hold the Jaguars to a field goal for the rest of the game. The two point conversion is successful around 40-50 percent of the time (I don't knows the exact number for 2007). The Steelers wanted to make it a three point game, went for two, and got it on a great catch and throw from Roethlisberger to Ward.
But hold on a second, there was holding on the play which meant the down would have to be re-played and the ball would be spotted at the 12. At this point, the conversion rate probably falls down to 10-20% and it is an automatic to kick the extra point, try to hold the Jaguars to three points for the rest of the game and score a touchdown to tie the score.
Unfortunately for Steelers fans, Mike Tomlin does not believe in "probabilities". He thought it was still a good decision to go for two from the 12 yard line and it didn't pan out, leaving the score 28-23 in the Jaguars favor. The Steelers scored another touchdown, putting them in the lead 29-28, went for two again and it failed. Jaguars marched down the field on their last drive, kicked a field goal and won the game.
This was a simple math problem that the Steelers' coaching staff failed atrociously.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
A big win in big D - for the future
Even though they are mathematically out of the playoffs after last night's Vikings victory, it's always nice for the Eagles to beat up on their biggest one-sided rival, the Cowboys. I say one-sided because Cowboys fans generally do not consider the Eagles to be their most hated foe. Anyway, it was a nice victory, and featured a renewed mobility from Donovan McNabb, who obviously wants to showcase to the rest of the teams in the league that he is ready to be their quarterback. Ii seems that he can't stay here considering the words he has spoken this year. He's made it obvious he wants out, and no one should blame him. But what would next year bring if he does stay and is back to level approaching his old form, which was pretty damn good?
The fact is this team is not as bad as everyone, inlcuding myself in recent weeks, thinks. They have the best running back in the NFC, an offensive line that's decent when the QB can move/doesn't hold the ball for 18 seconds, a sad and terrible WR corps as they have most years, and slighly above average pass and run defenses. The special teams have been atrocious, but can be fixed. Akers (hopefully) just had an off year, and they can always find kick and punt returners. The Sav Rocca novelty also has worn thin; he's just not a good punter. But again, special teams are something which can be fixed in one offseason.
The Eagles could easily be 9-5 and heading to the playoffs with the talent assembled. Who is to say that next year, with a healthy McNabb, they wouldn't realize that potential and make a run in the playoffs? They're not in the same position as teams like Chicago, which is a recently good team in need of a complete overhaul. They're more like the Bengals; a good team that had some bad breaks this year.
Hopefully, we will get a chance to see what happens with McNabb under center next year. Despite all his jockeying, Reid and Joe Banner say he's staying, and I do hope Donovan will have a change of heart in the offseason. And if he doesn't, well, fuck him.
The fact is this team is not as bad as everyone, inlcuding myself in recent weeks, thinks. They have the best running back in the NFC, an offensive line that's decent when the QB can move/doesn't hold the ball for 18 seconds, a sad and terrible WR corps as they have most years, and slighly above average pass and run defenses. The special teams have been atrocious, but can be fixed. Akers (hopefully) just had an off year, and they can always find kick and punt returners. The Sav Rocca novelty also has worn thin; he's just not a good punter. But again, special teams are something which can be fixed in one offseason.
The Eagles could easily be 9-5 and heading to the playoffs with the talent assembled. Who is to say that next year, with a healthy McNabb, they wouldn't realize that potential and make a run in the playoffs? They're not in the same position as teams like Chicago, which is a recently good team in need of a complete overhaul. They're more like the Bengals; a good team that had some bad breaks this year.
Hopefully, we will get a chance to see what happens with McNabb under center next year. Despite all his jockeying, Reid and Joe Banner say he's staying, and I do hope Donovan will have a change of heart in the offseason. And if he doesn't, well, fuck him.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Where is the real Willie Green?
In the month of December, Willie Green is shooting 57% from the field, and averaging 1.29 points per shot. And in his last 3 games, he's been to the free throw line 10 times, which for him is a huge triumph. His only really bad game this month was against Boston, which is the greatest team ever by most accounts from people who are Celtics fans.
Of course, he still can't rebound, pass, handle, or defend, but this post isn't about that. Instead, it is intended to congratulate our friend Willie for showing that, as we all knew, Billy King is to blame. Billy King was holding him back. "But wait", you say, "that makes no sense. Billy King was the GM and President, not the frigging coach. He's not responsible." Or is he? Something to think about, friends.
In other Philly sports news, Aaron Rowand has signed with the Giants for $219 billion over 15 years. Or something. In any case, they WAY overpaid for a guy with a career.805 OPS and who won a dubious Gold Glove this year. But contrary to popular belief, I'll miss Rowand. He was fun to watch and I did like his approach to the game, even if that approach does not make him the elite player people here like to believe he is.
Of course, he still can't rebound, pass, handle, or defend, but this post isn't about that. Instead, it is intended to congratulate our friend Willie for showing that, as we all knew, Billy King is to blame. Billy King was holding him back. "But wait", you say, "that makes no sense. Billy King was the GM and President, not the frigging coach. He's not responsible." Or is he? Something to think about, friends.
In other Philly sports news, Aaron Rowand has signed with the Giants for $219 billion over 15 years. Or something. In any case, they WAY overpaid for a guy with a career.805 OPS and who won a dubious Gold Glove this year. But contrary to popular belief, I'll miss Rowand. He was fun to watch and I did like his approach to the game, even if that approach does not make him the elite player people here like to believe he is.
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