Please excuse the nerd speak. There is much buzz in the media and among fans that the Eagles have, to put it mildly, totally fucked up and ruined the upcoming season by not getting a top-flight wide receiver this off-season. All the talk of Randy Moss meetings and Larry Fitzgerald trades has been quieted, with Moss re-signing with the Pats and Fitzgerald apparently content to play for a hapless team that will pay him about 43% of their salary cap number every season until 3 years after his legs fall off. Besides, the Cardinals management, though they are dumbasses, wasn't going to trade their top receiver for Lito Sheppard and draft picks.
Other than Moss, the free agent market for WR's was weak. Bernard Berrian may have looked good based on his 948 yards receiving last year with the Bears, but he's really a slightly above-average receiver who had a ton of passes thrown in his direction last year. The Eagles already have this player; his name is Reggie Brown. Donte Stallworth was talked about, but bringing him and his iffy hamstrings back was obviously not in the cards or in the budget. And if they really do want an injury case, Javon Walker is still available.
The person who is being hurt the most in all of this is Kevin Curtis, who is probably very depressed (or not) about this chatter that the Eagles sorely need WR help. Sure, maybe he'd have loved being the counterpart Wes Welker to Randy Moss in Philly, but that ignores the fact that Curtis had a really good year last year with Reggie Brown lining up on the other side of the field and Donovan McNabb's occasional struggling. He's not a big red-zone target, but he's a fine receiver.
With McNabb back near 100% this year and the cast of receivers they already have, the Eagles could and should be one of the top 10 passing teams in the NFL again. That is unless they lose 1,000 yards in sacks, which could happen. The prospect of their ancient tackles getting hurt and Winston Justice starting against the Giants is far scarier than the possibility they won't add another WR before the season begins.
They got a good corner. They got a pass rusher. It would have been nice if they got a super-duper wide receiver too, but other than Moss there was no one available with the kind of talent worth crippling your salary cap room for. Before everyone writes off the Eagles because they don't have Randy Moss, let's see what happens with the possible trading of Lito and the draft, and get ready for an improved Eagles team in 2008. Improved enough to compete in the hyper-competitive NFC East? We shall see.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Monday, March 3, 2008
Our apologies...
William "Willie" Green, who the hell are you? With the exception of his woeful, vintage performance against Golden State the other night, the man has been largely on fire. He's shooting well, drawing more fouls, and, from possibly inaccurate accounts, is working hard with his staff to bridge the divide in the Democratic party in this tumultuous primary season.
For the year, Willie has his PPS all the way up at 1.11, which if it holds will easily be a career high. Now, before everyone gets out of hand with their "I told you so"'s, the man still cannot pass, defend, or rebound. He is not going to be a better pro the Andre Iguodala, like some famous moron said. But what he is doing for now- providing reliable offense- is extremely important as the Sixers make their run to get swept in the first round of the playoffs.
Sadly, with the Rise of Willie, someone else must take his place as the least-favorite Sixer. Rodney Carney, come on down. You can't shoot, rebound, pass, or stay healthy. Welcome.
For the year, Willie has his PPS all the way up at 1.11, which if it holds will easily be a career high. Now, before everyone gets out of hand with their "I told you so"'s, the man still cannot pass, defend, or rebound. He is not going to be a better pro the Andre Iguodala, like some famous moron said. But what he is doing for now- providing reliable offense- is extremely important as the Sixers make their run to get swept in the first round of the playoffs.
Sadly, with the Rise of Willie, someone else must take his place as the least-favorite Sixer. Rodney Carney, come on down. You can't shoot, rebound, pass, or stay healthy. Welcome.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
I’m back.
Where was I? France. Little known fact- there is no internet access in France.
In an excellent, relief-inducing move by the Phils, Brett Myers has been named the starter for Opening Day 2008. It was almost a sure thing that he would be back in the rotation, but the vote of confidence and picking him to lead the rotation rather than Hamels is a great move.
But all is not well in Clearwater- Brad Lidge, the new closer, is unlikely to be ready to go on opening day unless he gets some of the blood from the cheerleader on Heroes. And the second option is Tom Gordon, a man who is in desperate need of bionic replacement parts for his ravaged arm. And last season's closer has already been named as a starter. But as I always say, I'll take a good starter over a great closer any day.
Also, I had a weird dream last night that the Phillies had A-Rod. Prophetic? I’d say 100% yes.
Where was I? France. Little known fact- there is no internet access in France.
In an excellent, relief-inducing move by the Phils, Brett Myers has been named the starter for Opening Day 2008. It was almost a sure thing that he would be back in the rotation, but the vote of confidence and picking him to lead the rotation rather than Hamels is a great move.
But all is not well in Clearwater- Brad Lidge, the new closer, is unlikely to be ready to go on opening day unless he gets some of the blood from the cheerleader on Heroes. And the second option is Tom Gordon, a man who is in desperate need of bionic replacement parts for his ravaged arm. And last season's closer has already been named as a starter. But as I always say, I'll take a good starter over a great closer any day.
Also, I had a weird dream last night that the Phillies had A-Rod. Prophetic? I’d say 100% yes.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Who?
From Randy Miller's column today:
Dominique Brown is tall and skinny at 6-foot-5, 205. He bats and throws left, plays a mean right field and has an arm that scares baserunners. And best of all, this kid hits baseballs a long, long way.
I google'd "Dominique Brown" and an reference about Nicole Brown Simpson's sister. I assume he was talking about Dominic Brown, the Phillies minor league player.
Some 18 months later, the Phillies are dreaming about someday having their best 1-2 power punch ever if Howard sticks around and Brown lives up to his potential.
I assume Brown will play the whole season in A ball as he has a grand total of 411 at bats professionally. Assuming that he plays A ball this year, AA in '09, and AAA in '10, he would be ready to for the majors in '11. That will also be Howard's final year before he reaches free agency, assuming that the Phillies don't trade him before then. So this would be more of a fantasy "dream", like the Trix Rabbit has of finally getting his Trix.
The group is headed by Brown and includes former No. 1 pick Greg Golson, D'Arby Myers, Matt Spencer and 2007 Paul Owens winner Quinton Berry.
1. It is Quintin, not Quinton.
2. Of that group of five players, one of them, Golson, has played above A ball. I find it difficult to get excited about a bunch of 18 and 19 year old kids that haven't seen AA pitching, let alone succeeded against it.
I know writers have a lot of filler articles that they have to file during spring training. But this just seems like a story that Miller got after having some beers with one of the Phillies minor league development guys last night. The only one of these guys that might sniff the majors in the next three years is Golson and he is still a work in progress. It took Golson three years to get to AA and that is where he is going to start this season. His career OBP in the minors is .303, which is just atrocious.
But at least baseball is starting.
Dominique Brown is tall and skinny at 6-foot-5, 205. He bats and throws left, plays a mean right field and has an arm that scares baserunners. And best of all, this kid hits baseballs a long, long way.
I google'd "Dominique Brown" and an reference about Nicole Brown Simpson's sister. I assume he was talking about Dominic Brown, the Phillies minor league player.
Some 18 months later, the Phillies are dreaming about someday having their best 1-2 power punch ever if Howard sticks around and Brown lives up to his potential.
I assume Brown will play the whole season in A ball as he has a grand total of 411 at bats professionally. Assuming that he plays A ball this year, AA in '09, and AAA in '10, he would be ready to for the majors in '11. That will also be Howard's final year before he reaches free agency, assuming that the Phillies don't trade him before then. So this would be more of a fantasy "dream", like the Trix Rabbit has of finally getting his Trix.
The group is headed by Brown and includes former No. 1 pick Greg Golson, D'Arby Myers, Matt Spencer and 2007 Paul Owens winner Quinton Berry.
1. It is Quintin, not Quinton.
2. Of that group of five players, one of them, Golson, has played above A ball. I find it difficult to get excited about a bunch of 18 and 19 year old kids that haven't seen AA pitching, let alone succeeded against it.
I know writers have a lot of filler articles that they have to file during spring training. But this just seems like a story that Miller got after having some beers with one of the Phillies minor league development guys last night. The only one of these guys that might sniff the majors in the next three years is Golson and he is still a work in progress. It took Golson three years to get to AA and that is where he is going to start this season. His career OBP in the minors is .303, which is just atrocious.
But at least baseball is starting.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Hazing Time
Yes, it is time for the monthly post.
I had planned on trashing Phil Sheridan's Fantasyland column from this morning's Inquirer that suggested the Phillies lay down during their arbitration hearing with Ryan Howard.
But Keith Law beat me to the punch.
So instead, I will pick on the Daily News' new Phillies beat writer, David Murphy. I am certain that Murphy will be an upgrade over the DN's previous beat guy, Marcus Hayes, but he is off to a rough start. Apparently he has quite a hard on for batting averages. This is from today's spring training report regarding Pat Burrell:
Eight years into his career, it's still difficult to find the proper perspective through which to view the man who at one point was cast as a franchise's savior. On one hand are his 218 career home runs, fifth in Phillies history. By the end of the year, he'll likely move back Greg Luzinski (223) and Chuck Klein (243).
I had planned on trashing Phil Sheridan's Fantasyland column from this morning's Inquirer that suggested the Phillies lay down during their arbitration hearing with Ryan Howard.
But Keith Law beat me to the punch.
So instead, I will pick on the Daily News' new Phillies beat writer, David Murphy. I am certain that Murphy will be an upgrade over the DN's previous beat guy, Marcus Hayes, but he is off to a rough start. Apparently he has quite a hard on for batting averages. This is from today's spring training report regarding Pat Burrell:
Eight years into his career, it's still difficult to find the proper perspective through which to view the man who at one point was cast as a franchise's savior. On one hand are his 218 career home runs, fifth in Phillies history. By the end of the year, he'll likely move back Greg Luzinski (223) and Chuck Klein (243).
On the other hand are his .258 career average and numerous injuries.
Batting average, home runs. These are the only criteria used to judge Pat Burrell. What about his career .357 OBP or .482 SLG?
In 2002, the year before he signed a 6-year contract extension that will earn him $14 million this year, he hit .282 with 37 home runs and 116 RBI. The following year, those numbers plummeted to .209, 21 and 64.
Burrell had one awful year and it was five years ago. It is time to let it go.
Only once has his batting average improved in two straight seasons (from .209 to .257 to .281 from 2003-05). After hitting .281 with 32 home runs and 117 RBI in 2005, his batting average dropped to .258 in 2006 and .256 last year.
When David Murphy was young, he would open up a package of baseball cards and organize all his new cards by the player's batting averages. What is the difference between hitting .258 and .256? Last year for Burrell, it is one hit. One more hit and he would not have landed on the dreaded Murphy Sliding Batting Average List.
No one is expecting Pat Burrell to hit .300. We do expect him to get on base and hit home runs. Burrell's OPS the past three seasons have been .893, .890, and .902. While he may have his ups and downs throughout the season, at the end of the year his numbers always end up around the same place. There aren't too many teams that would turn down the idea of having a left fielder put up an OPS of .890 on a yearly basis.
"But what about his batting average?!?!"
Hopefully the learning curve is not a steep one for David Murphy.
In 2002, the year before he signed a 6-year contract extension that will earn him $14 million this year, he hit .282 with 37 home runs and 116 RBI. The following year, those numbers plummeted to .209, 21 and 64.
Burrell had one awful year and it was five years ago. It is time to let it go.
Only once has his batting average improved in two straight seasons (from .209 to .257 to .281 from 2003-05). After hitting .281 with 32 home runs and 117 RBI in 2005, his batting average dropped to .258 in 2006 and .256 last year.
When David Murphy was young, he would open up a package of baseball cards and organize all his new cards by the player's batting averages. What is the difference between hitting .258 and .256? Last year for Burrell, it is one hit. One more hit and he would not have landed on the dreaded Murphy Sliding Batting Average List.
No one is expecting Pat Burrell to hit .300. We do expect him to get on base and hit home runs. Burrell's OPS the past three seasons have been .893, .890, and .902. While he may have his ups and downs throughout the season, at the end of the year his numbers always end up around the same place. There aren't too many teams that would turn down the idea of having a left fielder put up an OPS of .890 on a yearly basis.
"But what about his batting average?!?!"
Hopefully the learning curve is not a steep one for David Murphy.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Mo Money Mo Problems
What is $3 million between friends?
Myself and the rest of my friends in The Millionaire Club may laugh at that figure, but it may be the monetary difference that sends Ryan Howard and the Phillies to an arbitrator to determine his 2008 contract. Howard feels that he should be paid $10 million and the Phillies think his worth is $7 million (I like how they rounded to the closest million). It is always possible that the two sides come to an agreement before it reaches arbitration, but I think the $3 million gap is not going to be bridged very easily.
Arbitration awards are based on both performance and service time. To put Howard's demands into perspective, Alfonso Soriano is the only player in the history of baseball to be awarded $10 million in arbitration and he received that before his sixth year in the league, his last before becoming a free agent. Howard is classified in the "Super Two" category for players that have not had three full service years in MLB, but fulfill other playing time categories to qualify for salary arbitration. Needless to say, no player has ever received $10 million in their first year in arbitration.
Todd Zolecki has done a great job so far covering this issue, both in print and at his blog. He speculates that Howard's contract demands will be in excess of the 7 year, $100 million contract that Albert Pujols signed.
This issue seems have to split the fanbase into two camps; one thinks that the Phillies are being smart for not extending Howard immediately and the other shouting "C'mon, stop bein' so cheap and pay the man".
I fall firmly in line with those that feel the Phillies are doing the correct thing in not handing over the keys to the vault to Howard at this time. Why? Let me count the ways.
1. When a team and a player come to an agreement for a long-term contract before the player reaches free agency, it usually is a win-win for both parties. The team is able to buy the player out of his first year or two of free agency at a discount, as compared to what he would possibly get on the open market, and the player gets the security of a long-term, guaranteed contract. Ryan Howard is a unique situation because he will be 27 when the season begins and the Phillies have him under control for the next four seasons, or until after the 2011 season. When Pujols got his contract, he was 24 years old and three years away away from free agency. By giving him a four year contract, the Cardinals bought Pujols out of his first four years of free agency and locked him up until age 31, through his assumed peak years. The Phillies already have Howard under their control through age 31 without giving him a contract extension.
2. According to Baseball Reference's most comparable players to Ryan Howard at age 27, two of them also had very similar body types to Howard, Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn. Let's look at both guy's OPS+ after age 26:
Fielder
26: 167
27: 133
28: 117
29: 124
30: 113
31: 111
32: 108
33: 101
34: 86
Vaughn
26: 146
27: 144
28: 150
29: 152
30: 153
31: 119
32: 115
33: 113
35: 73
As can be seen from above, both guys saw their production dip tremendously at one point, Fielder at age 28 and Vaughn at age 31, and never saw it return to its previous levels. So while Howard has been tremendous the last two years, there should be some trepidation on the Phillies' part to give him to long of a contract extension.
Right now, I think the Phillies should try to get him to sign for three years at 30 million with the contract breaking out as $8.5 million in 2008, $10.0 in 2009, and $11.5 million in 2010. I think that is a win-win for both sides. And then in 2011, we can have all out war.
Myself and the rest of my friends in The Millionaire Club may laugh at that figure, but it may be the monetary difference that sends Ryan Howard and the Phillies to an arbitrator to determine his 2008 contract. Howard feels that he should be paid $10 million and the Phillies think his worth is $7 million (I like how they rounded to the closest million). It is always possible that the two sides come to an agreement before it reaches arbitration, but I think the $3 million gap is not going to be bridged very easily.Arbitration awards are based on both performance and service time. To put Howard's demands into perspective, Alfonso Soriano is the only player in the history of baseball to be awarded $10 million in arbitration and he received that before his sixth year in the league, his last before becoming a free agent. Howard is classified in the "Super Two" category for players that have not had three full service years in MLB, but fulfill other playing time categories to qualify for salary arbitration. Needless to say, no player has ever received $10 million in their first year in arbitration.
Todd Zolecki has done a great job so far covering this issue, both in print and at his blog. He speculates that Howard's contract demands will be in excess of the 7 year, $100 million contract that Albert Pujols signed.
This issue seems have to split the fanbase into two camps; one thinks that the Phillies are being smart for not extending Howard immediately and the other shouting "C'mon, stop bein' so cheap and pay the man".
I fall firmly in line with those that feel the Phillies are doing the correct thing in not handing over the keys to the vault to Howard at this time. Why? Let me count the ways.
1. When a team and a player come to an agreement for a long-term contract before the player reaches free agency, it usually is a win-win for both parties. The team is able to buy the player out of his first year or two of free agency at a discount, as compared to what he would possibly get on the open market, and the player gets the security of a long-term, guaranteed contract. Ryan Howard is a unique situation because he will be 27 when the season begins and the Phillies have him under control for the next four seasons, or until after the 2011 season. When Pujols got his contract, he was 24 years old and three years away away from free agency. By giving him a four year contract, the Cardinals bought Pujols out of his first four years of free agency and locked him up until age 31, through his assumed peak years. The Phillies already have Howard under their control through age 31 without giving him a contract extension.
2. According to Baseball Reference's most comparable players to Ryan Howard at age 27, two of them also had very similar body types to Howard, Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn. Let's look at both guy's OPS+ after age 26:
Fielder
26: 167
27: 133
28: 117
29: 124
30: 113
31: 111
32: 108
33: 101
34: 86
Vaughn
26: 146
27: 144
28: 150
29: 152
30: 153
31: 119
32: 115
33: 113
35: 73
As can be seen from above, both guys saw their production dip tremendously at one point, Fielder at age 28 and Vaughn at age 31, and never saw it return to its previous levels. So while Howard has been tremendous the last two years, there should be some trepidation on the Phillies' part to give him to long of a contract extension.
Right now, I think the Phillies should try to get him to sign for three years at 30 million with the contract breaking out as $8.5 million in 2008, $10.0 in 2009, and $11.5 million in 2010. I think that is a win-win for both sides. And then in 2011, we can have all out war.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Simple Math
I understand that NFL coaches are paid to devise plays and motivate their players and not for their math skills. But one would think that a team could hire a math nerd to sit on the sidelines and tell them when to kick an extra point and when to go for a two point conversion, as opposed to relying on former NFL players to make these decision.
Case in point:
In the fourth quarter of last night's Steelers/Jaguars game, the Steelers scored a touchdown with 10:25 left in the game to cut the Jaguars lead to 28-23. Instead of kicking the extra point and making it a four point game, the Steelers decided to go for two. With the amount of scoring that had already occurred in the game as well as the fact that there was over ten minutes left on the clock, I would have kicked the extra point and tried to hold the Jaguars to a field goal for the rest of the game. The two point conversion is successful around 40-50 percent of the time (I don't knows the exact number for 2007). The Steelers wanted to make it a three point game, went for two, and got it on a great catch and throw from Roethlisberger to Ward.
But hold on a second, there was holding on the play which meant the down would have to be re-played and the ball would be spotted at the 12. At this point, the conversion rate probably falls down to 10-20% and it is an automatic to kick the extra point, try to hold the Jaguars to three points for the rest of the game and score a touchdown to tie the score.
Unfortunately for Steelers fans, Mike Tomlin does not believe in "probabilities". He thought it was still a good decision to go for two from the 12 yard line and it didn't pan out, leaving the score 28-23 in the Jaguars favor. The Steelers scored another touchdown, putting them in the lead 29-28, went for two again and it failed. Jaguars marched down the field on their last drive, kicked a field goal and won the game.
This was a simple math problem that the Steelers' coaching staff failed atrociously.
Case in point:
In the fourth quarter of last night's Steelers/Jaguars game, the Steelers scored a touchdown with 10:25 left in the game to cut the Jaguars lead to 28-23. Instead of kicking the extra point and making it a four point game, the Steelers decided to go for two. With the amount of scoring that had already occurred in the game as well as the fact that there was over ten minutes left on the clock, I would have kicked the extra point and tried to hold the Jaguars to a field goal for the rest of the game. The two point conversion is successful around 40-50 percent of the time (I don't knows the exact number for 2007). The Steelers wanted to make it a three point game, went for two, and got it on a great catch and throw from Roethlisberger to Ward.
But hold on a second, there was holding on the play which meant the down would have to be re-played and the ball would be spotted at the 12. At this point, the conversion rate probably falls down to 10-20% and it is an automatic to kick the extra point, try to hold the Jaguars to three points for the rest of the game and score a touchdown to tie the score.
Unfortunately for Steelers fans, Mike Tomlin does not believe in "probabilities". He thought it was still a good decision to go for two from the 12 yard line and it didn't pan out, leaving the score 28-23 in the Jaguars favor. The Steelers scored another touchdown, putting them in the lead 29-28, went for two again and it failed. Jaguars marched down the field on their last drive, kicked a field goal and won the game.
This was a simple math problem that the Steelers' coaching staff failed atrociously.
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