Sunday, July 22, 2007

It's The Pitching, Stupid


It really blows my mind that anyone in their right mind, or even their wrong mind, could put any blame for the Phillies’ mediocre record on the lineup. Without doing much research, anyone can observe the following:

  • The Phillies rank 1st in the NL in Runs Scored.
  • The Phillies rank 2nd in the NL in Batting Average.
  • The Phillies rank 1st in the NL in On Base Percentage.
  • The Phillies rank 1st in the NL in Slugging Percentage.
  • The Phillies rank 1st in the NL in OPS.

But the Phillies aren’t clutch. They can’t score with runners in scoring position.

  • With runners in scoring position, the Phillies rank 4th in the NL in Batting Average and On Base Percentage.
  • With runners in scoring position, the Phillies rank 2nd in the NL in Slugging Percentage.

The Phillies are averaging 5.42 runs per game. That is astounding. Here are the Phillies monthly runs per game averages:

  • April: 4.92 runs per game
  • May: 5.39 runs per game
  • June: 5.11 runs per game
  • July: 6.56 runs per game

This is a very, very good offense. The Marlins are averaging the second most runs scored per game at 4.91. More than half a run a game less than the Phillies. The only time in the last 30 years that a team has led the NL in runs per game by a margin of 0.5 runs per game was the Rockies in 1996 and 1997 (and obviously the conditions had something to do with that).

So why isn’t this the best team in the National League?

It definitely rhymes with itching.

They rank last in the NL in team ERA, Home Runs, and OPS against. Next to last in the NL in WHIP. Second to last in the NL in Starters' ERA, Relievers' ERA and BAA. They have lost 11 games when they score 5 or more runs. That is the difference between running away with the division and being a .500 team.

But hey, Pat Gillick is a genius. He’ll fix this team. Don’t worry about a thing.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

So what do you think about the Phils trading away a decent pitcher (Dubee) for a second baseman who's an average position player and a okay bat presence?

Good, bad, horrific?

And the point on the offensive production...it all has to do with speed. The Phils have just the right amount of power in their lineup that it can easily take advantage of the speed that it places on the basepaths.

Right now, the first three guys in the lineup are all capable of stealing 40 bases. Hell, if Bourn started the beginning of the year, and he was at the point he is right now, i'm positive he could be challenging Reyes for the most stolen bases in the league. Victorino holds his own. Rollins still has his speed.

Speed has so much to do with their run production. It's absurd (in a positive way). I love it.

Like you said, if only they could find a ground with pitching.

JG said...

Speed is very nice, yes. Por ejemplo, as a team the Phils have stolen 88 bases (2nd in the NL), and have only been thrown out 14 times, good for a 86.3% success rate on steals. And obviously it helps on the base paths as long as the runners are smart about it.

But how important is that speed to their league leading run total? The Phillies also lead the NL in OBP, SLG (and obviously OPS), walks, hits, and batting average. And they're 3rd in HR's. Even if they didn't have 3 super-fast guys in Rollins, Bourn, and Victorino (okay, Utley can move as well), they'd most likely still lead the league in runs scored.