Selling High

No, I am not talking about daytrading while under the influence. I be talking about Kyle Kendrick.

Kendrick's line tonight: 6 IP, 4 H, 5 BB, 4 K

If I were given solely those numbers, I would guess that he gave up three runs. Maybe he gets lucky and only gives up a run, maybe one of those two of those hits are three-run home runs. But a shutout? Seriously? It is like any sense of rationale baseball projections are thrown out when he gets on the mound.

Kendrick's record is now 10-5 and he sports a 4.37 ERA. At the beginning of the season I figured MLB hitters would figure him out and he would not repeat his success of 2007. While his ERA is higher than last year, his winning percentage is essentially the same. AND THIS BLOWS MY MIND. Pitchers that give up over a hit an inning, post a WHIP around 1.50, and don't strike anyone out should not win two out of three decisions, unless they are members of the pre-humidor Rockies. There is only one explanation for his success: luck.

All of this factors into my early campaign to convince the Phillies to sell high on Kyle Kendrick this offseason. Assuming he doesn't implode in the last two months of the season, Kendrick will most likely finish with 13-15 wins. There are plenty of GMs in baseball that are dumb enough to get hung up on his win total and completely ignore his peripherals. These are the teams that Gamarobuckle (soon to be Arbuckamaro?) should take advantage of. Kendrick's luck is eventually going to run out and it would obviously benefit the Phillies to move him before he literally turns into a pumpkin. Of course the Phillies have never been accused of this type of forward thinking and will probably end up buying him out of his arbitration years and his first two years of free agency. And overpay to do so.

Steve Jeltz and other such men

Even to a 7 year old, it was pretty obvious that Steve Jeltz was one of the worst everyday players in baseball. An average fielder (on his good days), Jeltz was spectacularly bad at the plate. A switch-hitter, he gained no advantage from hitting from either side of the plate. He hit just 1 home run in his first 5 seasons (1,726 plate appearances) as a Phillie. He had a career batting average of .210 and was just 18 of 28 stealing bases for his career. Only 4 players since 1920 have more than 2000 career PA and a career SLG lower than Jeltz (.268), including the immortal Rafael Belliard. Amazing to think he once homered twice in one game (from both sides of the plate) since he was roughly as powerful as a sleeping toddler.

But looking over his numbers again, there is something surprising- Jeltzy took walks. Why would you ever throw the guy a ball? But he had a career OBP of .308- not impressive until you consider the .210 career BA. He actually averaged 55 BB per 162 games played, which is amazing when you consider he had almost zero ability with the bat. His career OPS+ gets a little boost from his inexplicable ability to draw walks. In fact, he's not even the worst Phillie in this category. Here, for fun, is a list of the 8 all-time worst Phillies hitters since 1930 as ranked by OPS+ (minimum 1500 PA as a Phillie). Obviously, it's shortstop heavy-

1. Bobby Wine- 59
I know he was a Gold Glove winning SS, but was his defense good enough to make up for this? I'll go find a crazed old man to ask.

2. Steve Jeltz- 64
Jeltz certainly did not play defense well enough to make up for this.

3. Denny Doyle- 66
Another defensive specialist, but at 2B. He became a better hitter after he left the Phillies in 1974. Shocking, I know.

4. Kevin Jordan- 68
This one mildly shocked me. I remember him as a being a pretty good hitting utility infielder. But he racked disciprine at the plate (I have permission from my girlfriend to mock Asian pronunciation).

5. Larry Bowa- 72
Picked up where Bobby Wine left off. Easily leads this list with over 7,000 PA as a Phillie and in Gold Gloves with 2. Fortunately for his nephew, he did not impart the secret knowledge of how to swing at the first pitch 90% of the time.

6. Ruben Amaro, Sr.- 74
The Bobby Wine of the Amaro family. Even platooned with Wine and still won a GG.

7. Ivan de Jesus- 78
Only played 3 years for the Phillies. Could hit a bit and took some walks, just had zero power. Traded by the Cubs for Larry Bowa and some prospect. And as we all know, that prospect was Julio Franco. Wait, wrong one. JD Drew. Nope. Peter Forsberg. Wrong sport. Ah, Ryne Sandberg.

8. Doug Glanville- 79
The worst non-infielder on the list. Hey, remember when he hit .325 that one year? Most of his years were nothing fucking like that. At least he could run. There is a theory that he was the prototype for Juan Pierre.

Honorable mention- Marlon Anderson (80), David Bell (84), Clay Dalrymple (84), Charlie Hayes (85), Kevin Stocker (85)

We're Not Alone

Kelly Dwyer at Ball Don't Lie speculating on a possible trade of Andre Iguodala and Willie Green to the Mavs for Josh Howard:

Philly gets a smoother shooter who can create, defend, and knows how to contribute when the looks aren't there, or the looks aren't falling. Better yet, at two more years for 20 million and then a team option for 11 more, the 76ers stay in contract control. Also, Willie Green stinks.

As our tens of loyal readers are aware, Jim and I have been making the case for years that Willie Green stinks (refreshers can be found here, here, here, here......you get the point).

Only downside to this article is that it how now replaced the greatest blog on the Internet about Philadelphia sports that is run by two old friends as the #1 result in Google when you search for "Willie Green stinks". That is the price of being right I guess.

The trade deadline- the Phillies do nothing.

Deadline's come and gone, and the Phils did nothing. Mark will be posting a retraction and apology for the Ron Mahay story as soon as Ed Wade becomes a good GM (seriously, LaTroy Hawkins?) or Exxon Mobil opens a wind farm.

I'm thinking of a word that rhymes with bunt...

Hearing Tom McCarthy and Sarge Matthews debate in the top of the 5th whether Jimmy Rollins, leadoff hitter and reigning NL MVP, should be given the green light to bunt with no one out, the 45-year old pitcher on first, and a man on second was enough to nearly make my TV commit seppoku. It was the 5th inning with the lineup turning over in a 1 run game against the worst team in baseball, possibly including Rookie and low-A ball. And you want to give up an out to maybe score one run. You're that scared of a double play ball? With a guy who has an OPS of 1.001 with runners on this season? Arrrrrgh.

Bunting still has it's place in baseball and in flag making. But there are too many situations where bunts are uncalled for and yet they end up being called for by the manager, fans, and announcers. Excessive bunting is a great strategy for teams that like to lose by one run. For more, here is an interesting blog post by Larry Dierker.

Ron Mahay and Oranges

EDIT: The Phillies may not have made this trade, but I don't like to remove the Internet. So my eagerness to bash the Phillies remains!!!

Say you have a grove of orange trees. And you have this one young orange tree that has some pretty good, but not great, oranges on it and it appears that that orange tree will produce good oranges for a lot of years to come. A lot of people would love to have a young orange tree like this that will give them delicious oranges for years to come. Now while you enjoy eating oranges, you have already have two great orange trees (though one of the orange trees has a problem being on time) that you use for your personal orange supply. It is unlikely that any of the oranges from this young tree will ever end up in your kitchen. Therefore, you decide to barter the orange tree to get something else that will please your palette. Maybe you get a great tomato plant or you try to couple that orange tree with a few other trees in your grove to get the best meal of your life.

Well, the Phillies just handed that orange tree over to the Royals and got an old hot dog. Welcome to Philadelphia, Ron Mahay.

We got a Rush brother!

And it's not JaRon! Kareem Rush signed with the Sixers yesterday. This is exciting stuff. While the Brand signing was obviously bigger than Jupiter and Saturn smashed together, these smaller, Kuiper Belt-sized object Rush and Royal Ivey signings are extremely important to the team too. Rush brings the outside shooting they need in a package that is much like Kyle Korver without his invisible leg irons attached. He's not a very good defender, but as long as he makes them 3's, it's a-okay.

The eventual rotation is looking like Andre Miller, Iggy, TYoung, Brand, and Dalembert starting, with Lou Williams, Royal Ivey, Rush, Jason Smith, and Marresssseeeee Speights backing up. That is a solid group of basketball gentlemen. And it obviously leaves 2 names out.

Willie Green and Reggie Evans are the square pegs (yes, like the old Sarah Jessica Parker show) here. With Rush and Ivey being signed to play on the perimeter, and with Lou Williams being groomed to move into a starting role eventually, it's hard to see Willie getting the 25 minutes a night he's accustomed to. And as hard as it is to admit, Willie was actually okay last year. He won't be kept around though if it means keeping him on the end of the bench. Perhaps they'll get him enough minutes at the 2, but it looks doubtful. A lot of it will depend on how much they believe Ivey can contribute. And of course if Iguodala is completely ineffective as a SG or they decide that it's worth keeping him as their SF, thus unwisely taking minutes away from Thaddeus Young, most of this analysis is worthless. Worthless analysis- always available from your Broad Street Bastards.

Reggie Evans got 23 minutes per game last year, which is about 10 minutes per game too much. He's great as a rebounder and a guy with a beard, but that is all. Perhaps they'll keep him in the rotation until Speights is ready, but his longer-term prospects with the Sixers are pretty dim.