Sunday, December 14, 2008

Myths by Raul

There are numerous people in the Philadelphia area who were overjoyed at the news of the Phillies signing Raul Ibanez, meaning the door has shut on the Pat Burrell era. I have issues with the signing, particularly the general idea of signing a 37 year old to a three year contract. That said, I think he will be an adequate replacement for Burrell in 2009.

That said, I strongly disagree with a lot of the hyperbole that has been thrown out by those who support the Ibanez deal. Such as......

Myth #1 - Raul Ibanez is a better hitter against left-handed pitching than Pat Burrell is.

In 2008, Ibanez had a career year hitting against left handers, putting up an OPS of .866. But every other year prior to '08, Ibanez had never even cracked .800 OPS against lefties. For his career, Ibanez is .268/.322/.411 against lefties. I would not be as concerned about these numbers if every lefthander over the age of 14 had not already figured out how to pitch to Ryan Howard.

Myth #2 - Raul Ibanez is a better hitter than Pat Burrell

If the year was 1983 and all we had were the back of baseball cards to argue with, then I would agree that with this Myth. But it isn't 1983, and only dopes use batting average and RBI to measure a hitter's production. In the last three years, Burrell has had an OPS+ of 122, 127, and 125. Ibanez has had OPS+ of 125, 121, 124. That is about as close as you can get in comparing two players over a three season span.

Myth #3 - Raul Ibanez is more consistent than Pat Burrell

I guess this comes down to your definition of consistency. People always would dwell on Burrell's hot and cold streaks, but just ignore the months where he put up numbers similar to his career stats. In 2008, both Burrell and Ibanez had two months with OPS under .800 and one month over 1.100. Same in 2007. Both players typically put up the same numbers on an annual basis. That is my definition of consistency.

Myth #4 - Raul Ibanez is less likely to decline than Pat Burrell

I am not a doctor and I haven't seen their medical records. But I have a difficult time believing that a 37 year old baseball player playing everyday does not present an injury risk, regardless of what great shape he is in. Getting old sucks.

Myth #5 - Losing a first round draft pick is not a big deal

This is an insane idea. And not only will the Phillies forfeit their first round pick by signing Ibanez, they also will not receive any compensation picks for Burrell because they did not offer him arbitration. Unless the Phillies plan on using that money to spend over slot for their additional picks, losing a first round draft pick is never a good idea.

I'm tired of typing. Type to listen to Barney Frank mumble and rumble. Welcome back us.