The Matt Holliday trade talk will not go away. So one more time, here is the case against trading Shane Victorino, Carlos Carrasco, JA Happ, and Lou Marson for a package of the possibly overrated Holliday and pitcher Brian Fuentes, who actually is a pretty awesome reliever but will be a free agent after this season.
Holliday's overall career numbers-
642 games, .321/.385/.556, 119 HR, 450 RBI (for those who deeply care about RBI)
Career HOME numbers AGAIN-
331 games, .363/.426/.659, 80 HR, 289 RBI
Career AWAY numbers-
311 games, .277/.341/.449, 39 HR, 161 RBI
Holliday at CBP-
a very small sample size of 59 PA, .283/.356/.547, 4 HR
For argument's sake, let us pretend that those last numbers actually approximate what he would put up for the Phillies (an OPS of .900 or so). That would still be pretty darn good, and way better than his current career numbers outside of Coors Field. Even then, it is questionable whether it is worth further gutting the farm system by giving away the guy who projects to be the Phillies No. 2 starter by 2010 (Carrasco, not Happ), a good catching prospect for a team that desperately needs a catcher, and a starter whose minor league performance shows that he may actually be better than the guy who projects to be the No. 2 starter in 2010 (this is Happ). And while Victorino may be a fan favorite because he's fast and people are led to believe he wears a hula skirt and eats poi in the clubhouse, he is actually expendable. Sorry, Spam lovers.
There is another issue with Holliday, albeit a smaller one- where does he play? The guy has only played LF his entire career, and that's where Man Machine Burrell lives. Obviously, if they do acquire Holliday they can always put him in RF and move him back to LF when the cheap-ass Phillies don't re-sign Burrell after this season's crushing playoff defeat. But what about the remainder of this year? Moving Holliday from LF to RF isn't like moving Ryan Howard to SS, but it would force him to perform in an unnatural position, which is fine for pornography, sure. But in baseball, not so good.
It's become obvious they need some help on offense. And since the Phils won't do simple things like STOP BATTING JIMMY ROLLINS LEADOFF or STOP PULLING BURRELL FROM EVERY CLOSE GAME or GO BACK IN TIME AND RE-SIGN AARON ROWAND, they probably do need to acquire another bat to make up for the damage that Geoff Jenkins, Pedro Feliz, and Carlos Ruiz cause to the offense. And that player will likely have to come in the form of an outfielder. The questionable call here is whether Holliday is the bat they need and whether the cost for his services is too high. As the supposed deal on the table is structured now, it probably is.
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2 comments:
For what it's worth Holliday is hitting .301 on the road with a .859 OPS, and those numbers have improved every year. But still, too much. Especially with what Happy is doing lately.
Yeah, he's gotten better, but his .859 on the road this year is still lame compared to his Home OPS. Even if he put up about a .900 overall OPS every year as a Phillie, which he very well could, we do agree it's not worth trading two possible future members of the rotation and their future battery mate for him and a soon to be FA reliever.
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